First in POLICORNER — In two must-watch ridings, one Liberal is gaining and one independent is draining.
That’s the upshot from a fresh poll by Mainstreet Research, which found Liberal candidate Vince Gasparro in a strong spot in Eglinton-Lawrence. John Tory’s former principal secretary-turned-Liberal candidate is up against Michelle Cooper, the executive director of the Progressive Conservative fund. Leah Tysoe is the Green candidate.
First in POLICORNER — In two must-watch ridings, one Liberal is gaining and one independent is draining.
That’s the upshot from a fresh poll by Mainstreet Research, which found Liberal candidate Vince Gasparro in a strong spot in Eglinton-Lawrence. John Tory’s former principal secretary-turned-Liberal candidate is up against Michelle Cooper, the executive director of the Progressive Conservative fund. Leah Tysoe is the Green candidate.
First in POLICORNER — In two must-watch ridings, one Liberal is gaining and one independent is draining.
That’s the upshot from a fresh poll by Mainstreet Research, which found Liberal candidate Vince Gasparro in a strong spot in Eglinton-Lawrence. John Tory’s former principal secretary-turned-Liberal candidate is up against Michelle Cooper, the executive director of the Progressive Conservative fund. Leah Tysoe is the Green candidate.
Meanwhile in Hamilton Centre, Sarah Jama has made Robin Lennox’s path a steep climb. Eileen Walker is the Liberal candidate, Sarah Bokhari is the Progressive Conservative candidate and Lucia Iannantuono is the Green candidate.
Both surveys, provided exclusively to this newsletter, were conducted on Saturday and Sunday. 467 adults, 18 years of age or older, in Eglinton-Lawrence, and 438 adults in Hamilton Centre weighed in. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.5 and 4.7 per cent, respectively.
Here’s what you need to know:
— In Eglinton-Lawrence, Natasha Doyle-Merrick’s decision to pull her candidacy at the eleventh hour was a tactical move to consolidate the progressive vote — and the numbers suggest it's doing exactly that.
Gasparro has a 13-point advantage, with 50 per cent support among all voters. 37 per cent picked Cooper, while 5 per cent said they’d vote for Tysoe.
Each candidate’s vote share climbed in the decided and leaning voter pool. 52 per cent said they’d pick Gasparro, while Cooper’s support grew to 40 per cent. Among those who’ve already decided, 53 per cent picked Gasparro. 41 per cent picked Cooper and 6 per cent picked Tysoe.
Demographics tell a more nuanced story. Gasparro has a slight advantage among women, at 49.6 per cent, and a strong lead with younger voters, at 52.8 per cent, and seniors, at 53.8% per cent. Men, at 42.2 per cent, and the 50 to 64 age group, at 47.7 per cent, make up the bulk of Cooper’s base. She’s underperforming with seniors and trailing among younger voters.
Among the undecided voters, those between 18 and 49 — at 10.2 per cent — make up the largest share. 9.9 per cent are 65+.
In 2018, the Tories snagged the once-Liberal bastion, with Robin Martin beating Mike Colle by 957 votes. In 2022, that margin slimmed — Arlena Hebert lost to Martin by a narrow 524 votes. Robyn Vilde, the NDP candidate, placed third in 2018 with 18 per cent, while in 2022, Doyle-Merrick managed to win just under 10 per cent of the vote.
This time around, it’s a top target seat inside the blue war room, and without a third-party progressive to siphon votes, Gassparo is consolidating the orange vote.
Rewind: Doyle-Merrick’s move blindsided the party. One senior source described it as “voter suppression” and a signal to disillusioned voters — frustrated with the Liberal or Conservative record — that “this election isn’t for you.”
“Denying voters a chance to choose a New Democrat, if they oppose cuts or dislike what the last Liberal government did to health care or hydro, is wrong,” they said.
The party’s legal counsel is reviewing Doyle-Merrick’s last-minute exit, according to two senior sources, amid concerns of “election interference” and “corrupt practices” under the Elections Act. In an interview, the ex-candidate insisted the decision to withdraw was about her community. Still privately, Stiles’ campaign is concerned about a possible backroom deal with Gassparo’s campaign that led to her exit.
Doyle-Merrick denied she’d ever spoken to Gassparo.
— Over in Hamilton, Sarah Jama is playing spoiler for Robin Lennox.
The NDP candidate has a 2-point lead, with 28 per cent support among all voters. 26 per cent picked Walker, while 13 per cent said they’d vote for Bokhari. Jama pulled in 9 per cent support. 13 per cent are undecided.
Among the decided and leaning pool, Lennox’s lead dwindled to a single point, with 29 per cent support. 28 per cent picked Walker, 14 per cent picked Bokhari and 12 per cent picked Jama. Lennox is up to 30 per cent among those who’ve already decided, while 29 per cent said they'd vote for Walker. 15 per cent picked Bokhari and 13 per cent picked Jama.
Lennox’s numbers are solid across all age groups but strongest among 65+ voters, at 30.6 per cent —a key demographic that turns out reliably.
Walker is riding high on female support, with 33.5% per cent, and a strong showing among the 65+ crowd, at 31.4% per cent.
Bokhari is pulling in 14.9 per cent of female voters and 15.3 per cent of voters between 18 and 49.
Jama, however, is the X-factor. She’s siphoning younger voters, a group that typically skews progressive, at 17.5% per cent — a demographic Lennox cannot bleed.
Jama was dumped from caucus for insubordination — and it wasn’t without drama.
Stiles said sorry for the ordeal, but at the time, sources said it wasn’t her stance that got Jama removed but that she wouldn’t play by the rules, breaching a deal that was struck with Stiles with "repeated situations" where she went rogue. The whole riding association quit en masse and threw their support behind Jama’s independent bid.
Her push to run under the orange banner a second time — with a local NDP MP framed as a chance to highlight Stiles’ “commitment to democratic principles” — hit a dead end, a move that irked local members and triggered a call for Stiles’ leadership to be reviewed.
First in POLICORNER — In two must-watch ridings, one Liberal is gaining and one independent is draining.
That’s the upshot from a fresh poll by Mainstreet Research, which found Liberal candidate Vince Gasparro in a strong spot in Eglinton-Lawrence. John Tory’s former principal secretary-turned-Liberal candidate is up against Michelle Cooper, the executive director of the Progressive Conservative fund. Leah Tysoe is the Green candidate.
Meanwhile in Hamilton Centre, Sarah Jama has made Robin Lennox’s path a steep climb. Eileen Walker is the Liberal candidate, Sarah Bokhari is the Progressive Conservative candidate and Lucia Iannantuono is the Green candidate.
Both surveys, provided exclusively to this newsletter, were conducted on Saturday and Sunday. 467 adults, 18 years of age or older, in Eglinton-Lawrence, and 438 adults in Hamilton Centre weighed in. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.5 and 4.7 per cent, respectively.
Here’s what you need to know:
— In Eglinton-Lawrence, Natasha Doyle-Merrick’s decision to pull her candidacy at the eleventh hour was a tactical move to consolidate the progressive vote — and the numbers suggest it's doing exactly that.
Gasparro has a 13-point advantage, with 50 per cent support among all voters. 37 per cent picked Cooper, while 5 per cent said they’d vote for Tysoe.
Each candidate’s vote share climbed in the decided and leaning voter pool. 52 per cent said they’d pick Gasparro, while Cooper’s support grew to 40 per cent. Among those who’ve already decided, 53 per cent picked Gasparro. 41 per cent picked Cooper and 6 per cent picked Tysoe.
Demographics tell a more nuanced story. Gasparro has a slight advantage among women, at 49.6 per cent, and a strong lead with younger voters, at 52.8 per cent, and seniors, at 53.8% per cent. Men, at 42.2 per cent, and the 50 to 64 age group, at 47.7 per cent, make up the bulk of Cooper’s base. She’s underperforming with seniors and trailing among younger voters.
Among the undecided voters, those between 18 and 49 — at 10.2 per cent — make up the largest share. 9.9 per cent are 65+.
In 2018, the Tories snagged the once-Liberal bastion, with Robin Martin beating Mike Colle by 957 votes. In 2022, that margin slimmed — Arlena Hebert lost to Martin by a narrow 524 votes. Robyn Vilde, the NDP candidate, placed third in 2018 with 18 per cent, while in 2022, Doyle-Merrick managed to win just under 10 per cent of the vote.
This time around, it’s a top target seat inside the blue war room, and without a third-party progressive to siphon votes, Gassparo is consolidating the orange vote.
Rewind: Doyle-Merrick’s move blindsided the party. One senior source described it as “voter suppression” and a signal to disillusioned voters — frustrated with the Liberal or Conservative record — that “this election isn’t for you.”
“Denying voters a chance to choose a New Democrat, if they oppose cuts or dislike what the last Liberal government did to health care or hydro, is wrong,” they said.
The party’s legal counsel is reviewing Doyle-Merrick’s last-minute exit, according to two senior sources, amid concerns of “election interference” and “corrupt practices” under the Elections Act. In an interview, the ex-candidate insisted the decision to withdraw was about her community. Still privately, Stiles’ campaign is concerned about a possible backroom deal with Gassparo’s campaign that led to her exit.
Doyle-Merrick denied she’d ever spoken to Gassparo.
— Over in Hamilton, Sarah Jama is playing spoiler for Robin Lennox.
The NDP candidate has a 2-point lead, with 28 per cent support among all voters. 26 per cent picked Walker, while 13 per cent said they’d vote for Bokhari. Jama pulled in 9 per cent support. 13 per cent are undecided.
Among the decided and leaning pool, Lennox’s lead dwindled to a single point, with 29 per cent support. 28 per cent picked Walker, 14 per cent picked Bokhari and 12 per cent picked Jama. Lennox is up to 30 per cent among those who’ve already decided, while 29 per cent said they'd vote for Walker. 15 per cent picked Bokhari and 13 per cent picked Jama.
Lennox’s numbers are solid across all age groups but strongest among 65+ voters, at 30.6 per cent —a key demographic that turns out reliably.
Walker is riding high on female support, with 33.5% per cent, and a strong showing among the 65+ crowd, at 31.4% per cent.
Bokhari is pulling in 14.9 per cent of female voters and 15.3 per cent of voters between 18 and 49.
Jama, however, is the X-factor. She’s siphoning younger voters, a group that typically skews progressive, at 17.5% per cent — a demographic Lennox cannot bleed.
Jama was dumped from caucus for insubordination — and it wasn’t without drama.
Stiles said sorry for the ordeal, but at the time, sources said it wasn’t her stance that got Jama removed but that she wouldn’t play by the rules, breaching a deal that was struck with Stiles with "repeated situations" where she went rogue. The whole riding association quit en masse and threw their support behind Jama’s independent bid.
Her push to run under the orange banner a second time — with a local NDP MP framed as a chance to highlight Stiles’ “commitment to democratic principles” — hit a dead end, a move that irked local members and triggered a call for Stiles’ leadership to be reviewed.
First in POLICORNER — In two must-watch ridings, one Liberal is gaining and one independent is draining.
That’s the upshot from a fresh poll by Mainstreet Research, which found Liberal candidate Vince Gasparro in a strong spot in Eglinton-Lawrence. John Tory’s former principal secretary-turned-Liberal candidate is up against Michelle Cooper, the executive director of the Progressive Conservative fund. Leah Tysoe is the Green candidate.
Meanwhile in Hamilton Centre, Sarah Jama has made Robin Lennox’s path a steep climb. Eileen Walker is the Liberal candidate, Sarah Bokhari is the Progressive Conservative candidate and Lucia Iannantuono is the Green candidate.
Both surveys, provided exclusively to this newsletter, were conducted on Saturday and Sunday. 467 adults, 18 years of age or older, in Eglinton-Lawrence, and 438 adults in Hamilton Centre weighed in. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.5 and 4.7 per cent, respectively.
Here’s what you need to know:
— In Eglinton-Lawrence, Natasha Doyle-Merrick’s decision to pull her candidacy at the eleventh hour was a tactical move to consolidate the progressive vote — and the numbers suggest it's doing exactly that.
Gasparro has a 13-point advantage, with 50 per cent support among all voters. 37 per cent picked Cooper, while 5 per cent said they’d vote for Tysoe.
Each candidate’s vote share climbed in the decided and leaning voter pool. 52 per cent said they’d pick Gasparro, while Cooper’s support grew to 40 per cent. Among those who’ve already decided, 53 per cent picked Gasparro. 41 per cent picked Cooper and 6 per cent picked Tysoe.
Demographics tell a more nuanced story. Gasparro has a slight advantage among women, at 49.6 per cent, and a strong lead with younger voters, at 52.8 per cent, and seniors, at 53.8% per cent. Men, at 42.2 per cent, and the 50 to 64 age group, at 47.7 per cent, make up the bulk of Cooper’s base. She’s underperforming with seniors and trailing among younger voters.
Among the undecided voters, those between 18 and 49 — at 10.2 per cent — make up the largest share. 9.9 per cent are 65+.
In 2018, the Tories snagged the once-Liberal bastion, with Robin Martin beating Mike Colle by 957 votes. In 2022, that margin slimmed — Arlena Hebert lost to Martin by a narrow 524 votes. Robyn Vilde, the NDP candidate, placed third in 2018 with 18 per cent, while in 2022, Doyle-Merrick managed to win just under 10 per cent of the vote.
This time around, it’s a top target seat inside the blue war room, and without a third-party progressive to siphon votes, Gassparo is consolidating the orange vote.
Rewind: Doyle-Merrick’s move blindsided the party. One senior source described it as “voter suppression” and a signal to disillusioned voters — frustrated with the Liberal or Conservative record — that “this election isn’t for you.”
“Denying voters a chance to choose a New Democrat, if they oppose cuts or dislike what the last Liberal government did to health care or hydro, is wrong,” they said.
The party’s legal counsel is reviewing Doyle-Merrick’s last-minute exit, according to two senior sources, amid concerns of “election interference” and “corrupt practices” under the Elections Act. In an interview, the ex-candidate insisted the decision to withdraw was about her community. Still privately, Stiles’ campaign is concerned about a possible backroom deal with Gassparo’s campaign that led to her exit.
Doyle-Merrick denied she’d ever spoken to Gassparo.
— Over in Hamilton, Sarah Jama is playing spoiler for Robin Lennox.
The NDP candidate has a 2-point lead, with 28 per cent support among all voters. 26 per cent picked Walker, while 13 per cent said they’d vote for Bokhari. Jama pulled in 9 per cent support. 13 per cent are undecided.
Among the decided and leaning pool, Lennox’s lead dwindled to a single point, with 29 per cent support. 28 per cent picked Walker, 14 per cent picked Bokhari and 12 per cent picked Jama. Lennox is up to 30 per cent among those who’ve already decided, while 29 per cent said they'd vote for Walker. 15 per cent picked Bokhari and 13 per cent picked Jama.
Lennox’s numbers are solid across all age groups but strongest among 65+ voters, at 30.6 per cent —a key demographic that turns out reliably.
Walker is riding high on female support, with 33.5% per cent, and a strong showing among the 65+ crowd, at 31.4% per cent.
Bokhari is pulling in 14.9 per cent of female voters and 15.3 per cent of voters between 18 and 49.
Jama, however, is the X-factor. She’s siphoning younger voters, a group that typically skews progressive, at 17.5% per cent — a demographic Lennox cannot bleed.
Jama was dumped from caucus for insubordination — and it wasn’t without drama.
Stiles said sorry for the ordeal, but at the time, sources said it wasn’t her stance that got Jama removed but that she wouldn’t play by the rules, breaching a deal that was struck with Stiles with "repeated situations" where she went rogue. The whole riding association quit en masse and threw their support behind Jama’s independent bid.
Her push to run under the orange banner a second time — with a local NDP MP framed as a chance to highlight Stiles’ “commitment to democratic principles” — hit a dead end, a move that irked local members and triggered a call for Stiles’ leadership to be reviewed.
First in POLICORNER — In two must-watch ridings, one Liberal is gaining and one independent is draining.
That’s the upshot from a fresh poll by Mainstreet Research, which found Liberal candidate Vince Gasparro in a strong spot in Eglinton-Lawrence. John Tory’s former principal secretary-turned-Liberal candidate is up against Michelle Cooper, the executive director of the Progressive Conservative fund. Leah Tysoe is the Green candidate.
Meanwhile in Hamilton Centre, Sarah Jama has made Robin Lennox’s path a steep climb. Eileen Walker is the Liberal candidate, Sarah Bokhari is the Progressive Conservative candidate and Lucia Iannantuono is the Green candidate.
Both surveys, provided exclusively to this newsletter, were conducted on Saturday and Sunday. 467 adults, 18 years of age or older, in Eglinton-Lawrence, and 438 adults in Hamilton Centre weighed in. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.5 and 4.7 per cent, respectively.
Here’s what you need to know:
— In Eglinton-Lawrence, Natasha Doyle-Merrick’s decision to pull her candidacy at the eleventh hour was a tactical move to consolidate the progressive vote — and the numbers suggest it's doing exactly that.
Gasparro has a 13-point advantage, with 50 per cent support among all voters. 37 per cent picked Cooper, while 5 per cent said they’d vote for Tysoe.
Each candidate’s vote share climbed in the decided and leaning voter pool. 52 per cent said they’d pick Gasparro, while Cooper’s support grew to 40 per cent. Among those who’ve already decided, 53 per cent picked Gasparro. 41 per cent picked Cooper and 6 per cent picked Tysoe.
Demographics tell a more nuanced story. Gasparro has a slight advantage among women, at 49.6 per cent, and a strong lead with younger voters, at 52.8 per cent, and seniors, at 53.8% per cent. Men, at 42.2 per cent, and the 50 to 64 age group, at 47.7 per cent, make up the bulk of Cooper’s base. She’s underperforming with seniors and trailing among younger voters.
Among the undecided voters, those between 18 and 49 — at 10.2 per cent — make up the largest share. 9.9 per cent are 65+.
In 2018, the Tories snagged the once-Liberal bastion, with Robin Martin beating Mike Colle by 957 votes. In 2022, that margin slimmed — Arlena Hebert lost to Martin by a narrow 524 votes. Robyn Vilde, the NDP candidate, placed third in 2018 with 18 per cent, while in 2022, Doyle-Merrick managed to win just under 10 per cent of the vote.
This time around, it’s a top target seat inside the blue war room, and without a third-party progressive to siphon votes, Gassparo is consolidating the orange vote.
Rewind: Doyle-Merrick’s move blindsided the party. One senior source described it as “voter suppression” and a signal to disillusioned voters — frustrated with the Liberal or Conservative record — that “this election isn’t for you.”
“Denying voters a chance to choose a New Democrat, if they oppose cuts or dislike what the last Liberal government did to health care or hydro, is wrong,” they said.
The party’s legal counsel is reviewing Doyle-Merrick’s last-minute exit, according to two senior sources, amid concerns of “election interference” and “corrupt practices” under the Elections Act. In an interview, the ex-candidate insisted the decision to withdraw was about her community. Still privately, Stiles’ campaign is concerned about a possible backroom deal with Gassparo’s campaign that led to her exit.
Doyle-Merrick denied she’d ever spoken to Gassparo.
— Over in Hamilton, Sarah Jama is playing spoiler for Robin Lennox.
The NDP candidate has a 2-point lead, with 28 per cent support among all voters. 26 per cent picked Walker, while 13 per cent said they’d vote for Bokhari. Jama pulled in 9 per cent support. 13 per cent are undecided.
Among the decided and leaning pool, Lennox’s lead dwindled to a single point, with 29 per cent support. 28 per cent picked Walker, 14 per cent picked Bokhari and 12 per cent picked Jama. Lennox is up to 30 per cent among those who’ve already decided, while 29 per cent said they'd vote for Walker. 15 per cent picked Bokhari and 13 per cent picked Jama.
Lennox’s numbers are solid across all age groups but strongest among 65+ voters, at 30.6 per cent —a key demographic that turns out reliably.
Walker is riding high on female support, with 33.5% per cent, and a strong showing among the 65+ crowd, at 31.4% per cent.
Bokhari is pulling in 14.9 per cent of female voters and 15.3 per cent of voters between 18 and 49.
Jama, however, is the X-factor. She’s siphoning younger voters, a group that typically skews progressive, at 17.5% per cent — a demographic Lennox cannot bleed.
Jama was dumped from caucus for insubordination — and it wasn’t without drama.
Stiles said sorry for the ordeal, but at the time, sources said it wasn’t her stance that got Jama removed but that she wouldn’t play by the rules, breaching a deal that was struck with Stiles with "repeated situations" where she went rogue. The whole riding association quit en masse and threw their support behind Jama’s independent bid.
Her push to run under the orange banner a second time — with a local NDP MP framed as a chance to highlight Stiles’ “commitment to democratic principles” — hit a dead end, a move that irked local members and triggered a call for Stiles’ leadership to be reviewed.