We're back. Here's how the fall session is shaping up.
Plus: insiders dish on the Peel split, "Jane being Jane," who's who at committee, nomination watch, Jama's out for good, raucous Rae, Essensa on electoral misinfo, tabled, a new seating plan and more
THE LEDE
With the threat of an early election in the air and a frenetic summer of political hustle and populist policy behind us, it’s shaping up to be a raucous fall session.
Let’s dig in.
— For Doug Ford, expect his government to push through a batch of populist policies, as they look to shore up support in suburbia. That’ll include: legislation to ban bike lanes — and expedite infrastructure projects, cracking down on supervised drug consumption sites, a potential review of the school board model and pocket cash to combat soaring costs.
Mitch Heimpel, a former chief in the Ford government and the current director of policy at Enterprise Canada, pointed to public opinion on a local race in Toronto as “instructive” for how the Tories plan to play their hand this session.
A fresh Liaison poll found columnist Anthony Furey ahead in the race to become Don Valley West’s next councillor, with housing, congestion and transit as voters’ key priorities.
“Voters are fixated on what they view as tangible concerns that are core to the function of government, or to the basic functioning of the economy,” Heimpel explained. “That’s why we’re seeing fixations on things like crime, traffic and housing.”
Across the aisle, with their political foes struggling to lock in on a winning narrative, Heimpel says the government should double down on shaping Bonnie Crombie’s public image. “Her name recognition, especially outside of the West GTA, is low,” he said.
But heading into the new session, Heimpel says the good news for Ford is that both Marit Stiles and Crombie are rehashing “the same narrative” that didn’t work for Steven Del Duca or Andrea Horwath.
“It’s like their focus groups haven’t changed in five years,” he said. “They don’t understand why Doug Ford keeps beating them.”
— It was a summer on the stump for Marit Stiles — she unveiled fresh campaign promises on a “Priorities’ Tour,” introduced herself to the general public with a new ad and cranked up the heat on the government.
Now back in the chamber, she’s got an edge, says Erin Morrison, deputy chief to federal leader Jagmeet Singh. “They turned up the heat on Ford's scandals like his luxury spa and the Greenbelt carve up,” Morrison said.
“They’re also making progress on a big enemy — Stiles’ lack of name recognition — with an ad campaign. The ‘It’s Marit’ ads are energizing, fun and blunt — a bit like Stiles herself,” she added.
Read up on the strategy behind the “It’s Marit” ad here, as explained by Stiles’ campaign director.
Now, with a potential spring election, Morrison says Stiles has a new task: to spell out who Bonnie Crombie is to the progressive base so they can “rule her out early.”
“Stiles has the receipts she needs: Crombie is a failure to launch leader — dogged by her own claim that she's a ‘conservative’ and her reputation as out of touch. Working people see she’s not one of them. You can’t picture her on a shop floor or a picket line,” Morrison said.
“The sooner voters recognize that Crombie’s Liberals are neither for working-class families nor progressive-leaning people, the sooner Stiles can establish herself as the movement-builder to unite left and centre-left voters to prevent another Ford government.”
That’ll counter Crombie’s line about being the only alternative to Ford. At the policy convention in London, the Liberal leader said her team was “the only party able to take on” the government.
— As for Bonnie Crombie, expect her caucus to stay on par with new messaging piloted over the summer.
“She’ll be talking a lot about the direction that she’d like to see the province take under her government,” said one senior Liberal source, granted anonymity to discuss strategy. “They will continue to point out the Ford government’s favouritism of their friends.”
To counter the Tories’ “she’s expensive” narrative, more on Crombie’s style — socially progressive, fiscally responsible — will “emerge over the next while.” “She’s going to position herself as a centrist. She’s not going to be radical left or radical right — she’s a traditional Liberal,” the source added.
Inside the chamber, it’ll be “health care, health care and more health care.” A second source said Crombie’s team will “take Ford's failures to him — from wait times to family doctors, homecare and privatization.”
“It’s only getting worse under Ford and the only policies he seems to be interested in have to do with cars and booze (and helping his connected friends).”
Expect Crombie, from outside the chamber, to make her presence felt at Queen’s Park. Her presence, or more accurately, the lack thereof, was the subject of critique in the last session. As one Liberal said: “She’s got to show up to Queen's Park every day and rage against Douglas. Let Bonnie be Bonnie.”
Despite low resources and visibility, the Liberal leader will become more of a regular face. “She’ll be making regular appearances in the Media Studio. She's there on a regular basis meeting with caucus and stakeholders, but she’s doing a lot of touring the province,” the senior source said.
Omar Khan, a former chief in Kathleen Wynne’s government, said that with an election still some time away, Crombie shouldn’t “get bogged down in the news cycle.” Instead, she should stay zeroed in on the rebuild.
“Leverage the talent in your caucus to carry the flag at Queen’s Park,” he said. “Focus on recruiting candidates and campaign managers in target ridings, outreach to key stakeholders and multicultural communities, raising money and building out a campaign theme.”
“She’s already doing much of this so just need to stay focused.”
AT THE PALACE
— The House is in session. We’re 17 days away from the next constituency week and 54 days away from the winter break.
Here’s what’s on the schedule next week:
Monday: Second reading of Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria’s Bill 212, Reducing Gridlock, Saving You Time Act will continue in the morning. Later in the day, Marit Stiles’ motion on the free delivery of “mental health care” as part of Ontario’s universal health care plan (OHIP) is up for debate.
Tuesday: Energy Minister Stephen Lecce’s Bill 214, the Affordable Energy Act is up for second reading in the morning. Later, Charmaine Williams will deliver a statement on Women’s History Month. Second reading of Sarkaria's bill will then continue.
Wednesday: Second reading of Sarkaria’s bill will continue. Later, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will table the Fall Economic Statement. Second reading of Bill 214 will continue, along with debate on Ernie Hardeman’s motion to “conduct a comprehensive review of practices in the funeral, burial, and cremation services sector.”
Thursday: The government’s economic update is up for debate all day.
— It’s shaping up to be a quiet week on the committee circuit. Public Accounts will meet on Monday for a closed session. Procedure will meet on Wednesday for a closed session to review new regulation and wrap up committee business.
— Meanwhile, with a summer cabinet rejig and a caucus departure behind them, a fresh committee roster on the government’s side has been rolled out. Here’s the who’s who:
At Finance and Economic Affairs — Zee Hamid is replacing Stephen Crawford. Dave Smith is in for Mike Harris Jr. and Brian Saunderson is replacing Effie Triantafilopoulos.
At Government Agencies — Robin Martin is in for Dawn Gallagher Murphy, Andrew Dowie is in for Harris and Hamid is replacing Kevin Holland. Kevin Pinsonneault is in for Graham McGregor and Laura Smith is in for Amarjot Sandhu.
At Heritage, Infrastructure and Cultural Policy — In for Rick Bryers is Hardeep Grewal. Natalie Pierre is replacing Sheref Sabawy and Sandhu is replacing Smith.
At the Interior — Tyler Allsopp is in Rudy Cuzzetto and Pinsonneault is taking over for Holland.
At Justice Policy — Stéphane Sarrazin is replacing McGregor while Triantafilopoulos is joining the group.
At Procedure — Patrice Barnes is taking over for Christine Hogarth, Gallagher Murphy is replacing Martin, John Jordan is replacing Sam Oosterhoff with John Yakabuski taking Sandu's seat.
Jeff Burch is replacing Monique Taylor. Taylor is seeking the federal nomination in Hamilton Mountain.
At Public Accounts — Byers is replacing Will Bouma, Cuzzetto is replacing Crawford, Sabawy is in for Lisa MacLeod and Triantafilopoulos is in for Daisy Wai.
At Social Policy — Hogarth is taking over for Steve Clark. Allsopp is in for Grewal, Bob Bailey is replacing Natalia Kusendova Bashta, Anthony Leardi is replacing Pierre and Wai is in for Nolan Quinn.
— There’s a new seating plan in the chamber.
— SCOOP — PC MPP Natalie Pierre will not run in the next provincial election. “After careful consideration, I believe the time is right to step aside. My commitment to our community will not waiver and I will continue to work hard and serve the people of Burlington for the balance of my term,” she wrote.
We broke news of Pierre's decision on Monday morning.
— Nomination watch: Back on the Tories’ ticket are Nolan Quinn, Sam Oosterhoff and Steve Clark in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, Niagara West and Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, respectively.
Harvey Bischof beat Mike Gatopoulos for the NDP's nomination in Brantford—Brant. The former president of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation placed a distant second to PC Will Bouma in the last election.
In November, Stiles’ team is set to nominate a crop of new candidates, including Faisal Hassan in York South—Weston, Kate Dupuis in Beaches—East York and Gemma Grey-Hall in Windsor—Tecumseh and Amanda Robertson in Bay of Quinte. Chris Glover and Jennifer French will also be nominated in Spadina—Fort York and Oshawa, respectively.
Tomorrow, Peggy Sattler will get the nod in London West.
Joining the Liberal ticket tonight is local trustee Dorothy Noronha in Northumberland—Peterborough South. Former police chief Peter Yuen will be nominated in Scarborough—Agincourt on Wednesday.
Check out who's already been nominated using our interactive tracker.
— Bonnie HQ threw shade at Ford advisor Nick Kouvalis on X over the Liberal win in New Brunswick.
— Michael Tibollo completed his PhD in psych over the summer.
“Dr. Tibollo, I can assure you, you’re going to be busy with psychology in this group here. You can start off with the top ranks right up there and then work your way down,” Ford said on a point of order on Monday. “I know how hard you’ve worked for years to get your doctorate.”
TABLED
Here’s what landed on the Clerk’s table this week:
— Bill 212, Reducing Gridlock, Saving You Time Act: The legislation, tabled by Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria, is part of the Tories’ push to appeal to motorists and suburbanites. It’ll enable 24/7 construction on priority highway projects, speed up the environmental assessment for the 413 and freeze fees for road tests. It’ll also increase the speed limit to 110 km/h on select highways and require municipalities to seek approval before new bike lanes are installed.
— Bill 213, Affordable Home Heating Act: The bill — sponsored by Peter Tabuns, Tom Rakocevic, Guy Bourgouin and Jennie Stevens — will require the government to “develop an alternative home heating fuel strategy.”
— Bill 214, Affordable Energy Act: The bill, tabled by Energy Minister Stephen Lecce, will establish an integrated energy plan to coordinate electricity, natural gas and other fuels; prioritize nuclear power generation for future demand and expand energy efficiency programs to reduce costs for families and businesses. It'll support the deployment of more EV charging stations with new regulations and launch a new regulatory authority to ensure economical energy connections for housing and in industry.
IN THE NEWS
— With a review of the Peel Region’s transition report complete, the Ford government is set to unveil the minutiae of the region's divorce “in a couple of weeks” — and per several familiar, here’s what Paul Calandra is expected to announce:
Water, waste and roads would be downloaded to the three municipalities. Water will be run by an agency, similar to Electra’s model, owned by the municipalities and run by a board with appointees. The region would remain intact but shrunk — primarily responsible for the delivery of social services, along with emergency services and health.
“It’ll help avoid unnecessary duplication,” one source explained.
Privately, the three mayors — Carolyn Parrish, Patrick Brown and Annette Groves — and top bureaucrats have been updated by the province on the restructuring under an “embargo,” per two sources with immediate knowledge.
— Premier Doug Ford has named Jane Philpott to lead a new primary care action team.
Philpott — the former federal Liberal health minister — said she was “deeply honoured” to take on the new role, with a “mandate to connect every person in Ontario to primary health care within the next five years.” “This is an incredible opportunity, to be able to give the mandate to deliver on a vision that is a really important one,” she added.
Politically, it’s not lost on some — those on Team Crombie, in particular — that the top health expert gave a headline speech at the Liberal policy convention last month and was considering a provincial bid.
Though she kept the door open, in September, she said she hadn’t made up her mind on whether to mount a bid.
“Jane was being Jane,” charged one Liberal source. “She was already talking to the government before she accepted to speak at the Liberal convention. She put her interest ahead of the party — she didn’t disclose to anyone in the party that she was looking at taking an appointment.”
Does it complicate a future run? “It’ll be more challenging,” the source added. “There’s a certain amount of trust in politics — if you’re talking with the government and then accept a keynote to speak at the party, it’s just bad form.”
Some see it from another angle. “[Philpott] was invited to speak at the AGM so hindsight suggests Ford is always one step ahead of Crombie,” another said. “Zee in Milton is an example of that.”
— The race to become Don Valley West’s next councillor has narrowed.
Dhruv Jain and Evan Sambasivam have hit the brakes on their campaigns and endorsed Rachel Chernos Lin. It’s an attempt to consolidate the Liberal vote in the ward against Anthony Furey, who, per a fresh Liaison poll, is up by five points.
Jain, a former aide to Liberal Stephanie Bowman — who is backing Chernos Lin — called her the “only candidate” who can beat Furey. “As I see it, his policy vision will diminish services I hold dear and render our city less vibrant, supportive and welcoming.”
“I really wanted to win. I love our community and know that we can do better,” Sambasivam added. “Today, the greatest public service I can do is to prevent a self-interested racist from getting a seat on council.”
It’s a race with a provincial connection. Former premier Kathleen Wynne, who endorsed Chernos Lin in an exclusive interview with this reporter, said the top issue was to not “have somebody like Furey,” who she called “a bigot” as the city councillor. “It would have been great if there was one candidate who progressives could coalesce around,” she added.
It wasn't lost on some that Wynne's spouse, Jane Rounthwaite, is spearheading fundraising for Chernos Lin's campaign.
Furey threw shade at Wynne and read up on some more critique here.
— Sarah Jama — who was booted from caucus over insubordination — will not carry the NDP banner in Hamilton Center. “As far as I know — and I’m the leader — it won’t be her," Stiles said in a radio interview on Monday.
— Education Minister Jill Dunlop isn’t ruling out changes to how school boards in the province are run — “but says she will wait and see what three current investigations uncover before considering her next move”
— Ontario’s college faculty — 76.1 per cent of 79 per cent unionized members — voted to authorize strike action.
“It was OPSEU/SEFPO that initially raised the prospect of a limited pause on any escalation by both parties following the strike vote, so that we could continue discussions in conciliation, and ensure that negotiations could continue without risk to student’s semesters,” the bargaining team wrote in a memo. “We even agreed to mediation — not binding interest arbitration — as a potential solution to help both sides move closer on key issues.”
WHAT WE'RE READING
— John Michael McGrath says the government has another shot at combating the housing crisis by repurposing vacant office buildings for residential purposes.
— The case of Mathur v. Ontario will live another day. It’s a partial win, McGrath wrote, for the young appellants.
— Martin Regg Cohn argues the bike lane ban could help Ford win an election, but it “won’t solve gridlock.”
— But do they really cause more congestion? New research blamed that on “induced demand.”
— And Matt Elliott has a deep dive into evidence and data to justify this infrastructure.
— Any idea why Stiles and Crombie have been quiet on the ban? Brian Lilley says it's “so popular” that they don't want to speak against it.
— The Ford government has enlisted the Canada Revenue Agency to help send out pocket cash in the new year.
— A “frank” and “emotional” caucus meeting saw Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reiterate his intention to stay on as Liberal leader.
— Ontario’s chief electoral officer wants more power to “investigate, thwart and punish” fake news in an election cycle.
— Housing Minister Paul Calandra isn't too happy his federal counterpart says Queen’s Park doesn't have the "political will" to address encampments.
— OK well, Sean Fraser did say that.
— Toronto will consider a draft renovictions bylaw “to protect tenants from unlawful evictions” in November.
— As of Monday, “patients, visitors and staff will need to wear a mask while waiting for care, receiving care and in high-risk areas” at the University Health Network.
— All good things must come to an end, including this week’s temperature.
ON THE RECORD
— PC MPP Matt Rae cranked up the volume — in every sense — while questioning Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli on Monday.
"The federal Liberal carbon tax!" he yelled, met with groans and chuckles from the other side of the aisle.
"The members of the opposition and the independent Liberals groan and heckle me right now because they realize they have already lost the next provincial election because they support the federal Liberal carbon tax," Rae said. "While members of the opposition parties want more taxes, our government, under the leadership of Premier Ford, has cut taxes."
Here’s that moment:
IN THE LOBBY
Here's this week's list of new, renewed and amended lobbyist registrations:
Giancarlo Drennan (Sussex Strategy Group): Wyloo Ring of Fire Ltd.
Richard Kruger (Suncor Energy): Suncor Energy
Amir Remtulla (Amir Remtulla Inc.): SmartCentres REIT, Astro Excavating Inc.
Ron Ross (Newforum): Recreational Trail Alliance of Ontario
Mackenzie Taylor (Sussex Strategy): Preserve the Escarpment
Aaron Scheewe (The Capital Hill Group): Hitachi Vantara, Canadian Council of the Blind, VMware Canada Inc.
Nicko Vavassis (Wellington Advocacy): Professional Engineers Ontario
Patrick Lavelle-Tuns (Endgame Strategies): Edvance
Patrick Jilesen (Patrick Jilesen): Essex Power Corporation
Dan Mader (Loyalist Public Affairs): Hydro Ottawa Holding Inc.
Shawn Cruz (Counsel Public Affairs): Ontario Association of Certified Engineering Technicians and Technologists
Devan Sommerville (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Ontario Association of Certified Engineering Technicians and Technologists
Caroline Pinto (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Ontario Association of Certified Engineering Technicians and Technologists
Michael Ras (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Ontario Association of Certified Engineering Technicians and Technologists
Felix Burns (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Ontario Association of Certified Engineering Technicians and Technologists
Rick Hayward (Brendain Incorporated): Premium Foods Holdings
Andrew Teliszewsky (GT & Company): Hydrostor, Essex Energy Corporation
Colin Anderson (Association of Power Producers of Ontario): Association of Power Producers of Ontario
Amanda DeYoung (Sussex Strategy Group): Boralex Inc.
Christopher Froggatt (Loyalist Public Affairs): Hydro Ottawa Holding Inc.
Laryssa Waler-Hetmanczuk (GT and Company): The Coca-Cola Company Ltd.
Anita Gaffney (Stratford Festival of Canada): Stratford Festival of Canada
Andrew Brander (Crestview Strategy): Rideau Hall Foundation
Clare Michaels (Navigator Ltd.): Kraft Heinz Canada
Felix Burns (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Electra Battery Materials Corporation
Michael Ras (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Electra Battery Materials Corporation
Meera Mahadeo (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Ontario Seasonal RV Resorts Coalition
Michael Ras (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Ontario Seasonal RV Resorts Coalition
Devan Sommerville (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Ontario Seasonal RV Resorts Coalition
Felix Burns (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Ontario Seasonal RV Resorts Coalition
Michael Rudderham (MCR Public Affairs): Keel Digital Solutions Inc., LifeLabs LP
Lee Greenberg (Policy Concepts Inc.): Ve’ahavta
Yara Salama (Policy Concepts Inc.): Ontario Home Care Association
Jonathan Rose (Policy Concepts Inc.): Lawyers' Professional Indemnity Company (LAWPRO)
John Perenack (StrategyCorp Inc.): 7-Eleven, Inc., Therme Group RHTG AG
Sadaf Abbasi (Sussex Strategy Group): Twig Fertility
Marc Brazeau (The Railway Association of Canada): The Railway Association of Canada
Alex Chreston (Crestview Strategy): Association of Canadian Distillers/Spirits Canada, Grain Farmers of Ontario, 3M Canada Company
Veronique Parry (Rubicon Strategy): Praesentia Canada Healthcare Corp., Ontario Hospital Association, Indivior Canada Ltd.
Christine Elliott (Fasken Martineau DuMoulin LLP): HLS Therapeutics Inc.
Keyaan Nejad (PAA Advisory | Counseil): Canadian Prepaid Providers Organization, National Theatre School of Canada
Laryssa Waler-Hetmanczuk (Henley Strategy): Steelcon Group of Companies, Ontario General Contractor's Association (OGCA), Regen Resource Recovery Inc., Can Art Aluminum Extrusion Inc.
Jacob Gorenkoff (Homeward Public Affairs): LOFT Community Services
Shawn Berezin (The CCS Group): Kunuwanimano Child and Family Services
Brian Zeiler-Kligman (Sussex Strategy Group Inc.): Top Aggregate Producing Municipalities of Ontario
Mark Holmes (Marlyn Consulting): Wabi Iron & Steel Corp
Regan Watts (Fratton Park Inc.): OneClose Inc., Nanz Pharma, Gartner Inc.
Danielle Peters (Magnet Strategy Group): Alliance for Safe Online Pharmacies
Chris Benedetti (Sussex Strategy Group): Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp., Elexicon Energy, Enwave Energy Corporation
Faria Amin (Sussex Strategy Group): Electronic Products Recycling Association, Enwave Energy Corporation
Stew Kiff (Solstice Public Affairs): Assemblée de la francophonie de l'Ontario
Veronique Parry (Rubicon Strategy): Council of Ontario Faculties of Medicine, Innovative Medicines Canada
Dylan Brenneman (Santis Health Inc.): Breast Cancer Canada
Tracy Pratt (Fasken Martineau DuMoulin LLP): The Corporation of the City of Brantford
Francesca Grosso (Grosso McCarthy Inc.): Medavie Inc.
Michael McCarthy (Grosso McCarthy Inc.): Medavie Inc.
Sarah Letersky (Rubicon Strategy): Innovative Medicines Canada
Patrick Harris (Rubicon Strategy Inc.): Canadian Niagara Hotels Inc., Innovative Medicines Canada
Bliss Baker (Sussex Strategy Group): Royalpark Homes
Cody Mallette (Atlas Strategic Advisors Inc.): Scale Hospitality Group Inc.
Sam Galea (McMillan Vantage): Robotics Centre, Inc
Tim Smitheman (Rubicon Strategy): Joint Electrical Promotion Plan, Maplebear Inc.
Mustapha Khamissa (Rubicon Strategy Inc.): Sheridan College
Stefano Hollands (Crestview Strategy): Nokia Canada Inc.
Jessica Georgakopoulos (Sussex Strategy Group): Lac des Mille Lacs First Nation, Porter Airlines Inc.
Peter Van Loan (Aird & Berlis): Sifton Properties Limited, Belmont Equity Partners Inc., Argo TFP
Leanna Karremans (Pathway Group Inc.): Ontario Association of Interval and Transition Houses
Jerry Khouri (Pathway Group): Ontario Association of Interval and Transition Houses
Al MacDermid (Pathway Group): Ontario Association of Interval and Transition Houses
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