On a typical day of door-knocking in the cold, you feel it twice — in the air and at the door.
“Sorry, I’m not interested,” a resident said as he quickly shut the door.
For many in Mississauga, political fatigue is running high. Over the summer, the province’s third largest city was thrust into a mayoral by-election to replace Bonnie Crombie, the third-term mayor who’d just become Liberal leader. Now, thrown into a provincial contest in the dead of winter, the city could make or break the former mayor’s political fate.
It’s home for Crombie — she frequently points to her time as mayor, which even Doug Ford, despite his critiques, once praised — but capturing all six seats in the city, let alone her own in East-Cooksville, is going to be an uphill climb.
Mississauga went all-in for Ford, turning entirely blue when the Liberal brand collapsed six years ago. Since then, the Progressive Conservatives have looked to shore up support in suburbia, cozying up to the new mayor and injecting new cash for transit and infrastructure, all while hammering the former mayor for her record through a wave of ads.
Crombie has local clout. As a home-town daughter, she doesn’t need an introduction. “We always voted for her,” one said. But while her name carries weight — something her allies are counting on to deliver a win — the response at the door is lukewarm, and voters aren’t automatically lining up behind her.
I went door-to-door in three ridings over three days to hear what voters had to say.
If you’re a visitor, you wouldn’t know a campaign is in full swing. In one swing neighbourhood, there was a rare lawn sign (for the None of the Above Party, an emblematic sight of voter disillusionment).
By 6 p.m., there were zero canvassers in sight.
And with over sixty doors knocked, most were not eager to chat.
When people did talk, they had a lot to say.
To protect their privacy, we’re granting anonymity to the voters we spoke with.
“There’s nothing to talk about, man. It’s a done deal,” one resident said, describing the early election as a “sham.” “What did they do to the economy? They messed up the whole economy.”
“Have you decided?” I ask.
“It’s one-word: ‘anti-incumbency.’ What was she even thinking when she ran for the Liberals?”
“So, you’re not voting for Crombie?” I followed up.
“Anybody other than her. They messed up the country. Forget the province, they messed up the country. I would spend money against her.”
The federal drag on the provincial party has been a challenge for the Liberal leader, as we previously reported. “It wouldn’t surprise me if Bonnie got a bus saying ‘not Trudeau’s Liberals,’” one source said in September.
A Liberal sign caught my eye, so I went up to the door. The resident opened the door and took a look at the sign. “We’re about to move that sign actually,” he said. “We’re not voting Liberal.”
Once loyal to the party, the resident said he was done with the Liberal brand. But when reminded it’s a provincial election, he shrugged: “We’re Conservative now, whoever it is. We want them wiped out.”
The voter, not sold on Ford, has chosen to sit out on Thursday. “The thing is, there’s some honesty, but I’m against his plan to build the Ontario Place spa,” he said of Ford.
“The truth is I’m not voting at all. We’re not participating. There’s no direction [my family] could support.”
Not a single option sat well with some. “I’m just disappointed with everyone,” one resident, visiting her parents, said. “None of them come through. They don’t care about seniors or people with disabilities.”
“I’m not thinking about it yet,” another added.
A third voter, quick to label himself as “the undecided,” said he previously voted for Crombie but wasn’t sure how he’d cast his ballot provincially.
He’s not politically active, he said, and he’s only ever heard of Crombie and Ford. “Bonnie Crombie was our mayor. She was our mayor for a long time. We love her. We always voted for her,” he said of the Liberal leader. “Now, it’s provincial so I’ll have to think a lot. It doesn’t mean I won’t vote for Bonnie.”
Meanwhile, asked about Ford, one thing stood out. “I don’t know if he could do anything about it but he’s vocal about the tariffs,” he said. “He’s the only one I could see who is standing against it. At least he’s using his voice.”
This resident’s biggest worry? Taxes. Peel Region had just green-lit a budget with a 5.4 per cent property tax hike. “Everything is going up. How about our income? Where do we get the money from?” he asked.
Time and again, both the cost of living and health care was a common theme at the doorstep. One voter, a Ford-leaning Liberal, told a candidate, who allowed us to tag along on a rapid canvass, that Crombie’s emphasis on primary care was “coming through.”
“I think he’s done a good job but I'm still undecided,” she said of the Progressive Conservative leader. “I’m not a fan of [the MPP]. I’m not a fan of Bonnie Crombie for no reason other than I just don’t like her style. Particularly, in this election, I find she’s taking the wrong style. It’s too much for me.”
As for Stiles, she was all praise. “She's with the wrong party, though. They’re never going to get in. I really like her.”
Ford didn’t win him over. Crombie didn’t either. Still, this voter, a staunch Liberal, was holding the line. “I don’t have a good feeling about her time as mayor,” he said. “To me, she was thinking about herself more than the city — that’s the feeling I got. All I hear from her is what she doesn’t like about Ford, but what is she going to do?”
“My problem is that there’s only a couple of weeks to make a decision. I know that’s why Ford [called a winter election] too.”
Of the voters who spoke, only one was all in for the Liberal leader. “I’m voting for Bonnie Crombie,” he said, closing the door behind him.
The Tories are eyeing a full sweep of all six seats. “We hold a 12-point lead across Mississauga. Smaller leads in East-Cooksville and Lakeshore and larger leads in the remaining ridings,” Nick Kouvalis, the Tories’ pollster, said. “The Ontario Liberals act as if they have already won — we just keep working hard to earn the votes one door at a time.”
“My view is that the Progressive Conservatives will sweep all six ridings,” Kouvalis added.
Privately, Liberals say the city will tell the tale of Crombie’s campaign. “Along with core Toronto, this should be the lowest-hanging fruit for us to pick up,” one source said.
“Mississauga will get the Bonnie Bounce or the Crombie Crumble,” a second added. “But this was not a normal election, and the really early call resulted in a short runway for the party to rebuild and launch the campaign it needed to in order to have a strong showing.”
Publisher’s note: This story has been updated to include a comment from Nick Kouvalis, the Progressive Conservatives’ go-to pollster.
On a typical day of door-knocking in the cold, you feel it twice — in the air and at the door.
“Sorry, I’m not interested,” a resident said as he quickly shut the door.
For many in Mississauga, political fatigue is running high. Over the summer, the province’s third largest city was thrust into a mayoral by-election to replace Bonnie Crombie, the third-term mayor who’d just become Liberal leader. Now, thrown into a provincial contest in the dead of winter, the city could make or break the former mayor’s political fate.
It’s home for Crombie — she frequently points to her time as mayor, which even Doug Ford, despite his critiques, once praised — but capturing all six seats in the city, let alone her own in East-Cooksville, is going to be an uphill climb.
Mississauga went all-in for Ford, turning entirely blue when the Liberal brand collapsed six years ago. Since then, the Progressive Conservatives have looked to shore up support in suburbia, cozying up to the new mayor and injecting new cash for transit and infrastructure, all while hammering the former mayor for her record through a wave of ads.
Crombie has local clout. As a home-town daughter, she doesn’t need an introduction. “We always voted for her,” one said. But while her name carries weight — something her allies are counting on to deliver a win — the response at the door is lukewarm, and voters aren’t automatically lining up behind her.
I went door-to-door in three ridings over three days to hear what voters had to say.
If you’re a visitor, you wouldn’t know a campaign is in full swing. In one swing neighbourhood, there was a rare lawn sign (for the None of the Above Party, an emblematic sight of voter disillusionment).
By 6 p.m., there were zero canvassers in sight.
And with over sixty doors knocked, most were not eager to chat.
When people did talk, they had a lot to say.
To protect their privacy, we’re granting anonymity to the voters we spoke with.
“There’s nothing to talk about, man. It’s a done deal,” one resident said, describing the early election as a “sham.” “What did they do to the economy? They messed up the whole economy.”
“Have you decided?” I ask.
“It’s one-word: ‘anti-incumbency.’ What was she even thinking when she ran for the Liberals?”
“So, you’re not voting for Crombie?” I followed up.
“Anybody other than her. They messed up the country. Forget the province, they messed up the country. I would spend money against her.”
The federal drag on the provincial party has been a challenge for the Liberal leader, as we previously reported. “It wouldn’t surprise me if Bonnie got a bus saying ‘not Trudeau’s Liberals,’” one source said in September.
A Liberal sign caught my eye, so I went up to the door. The resident opened the door and took a look at the sign. “We’re about to move that sign actually,” he said. “We’re not voting Liberal.”
Once loyal to the party, the resident said he was done with the Liberal brand. But when reminded it’s a provincial election, he shrugged: “We’re Conservative now, whoever it is. We want them wiped out.”
The voter, not sold on Ford, has chosen to sit out on Thursday. “The thing is, there’s some honesty, but I’m against his plan to build the Ontario Place spa,” he said of Ford.
“The truth is I’m not voting at all. We’re not participating. There’s no direction [my family] could support.”
Not a single option sat well with some. “I’m just disappointed with everyone,” one resident, visiting her parents, said. “None of them come through. They don’t care about seniors or people with disabilities.”
“I’m not thinking about it yet,” another added.
A third voter, quick to label himself as “the undecided,” said he previously voted for Crombie but wasn’t sure how he’d cast his ballot provincially.
He’s not politically active, he said, and he’s only ever heard of Crombie and Ford. “Bonnie Crombie was our mayor. She was our mayor for a long time. We love her. We always voted for her,” he said of the Liberal leader. “Now, it’s provincial so I’ll have to think a lot. It doesn’t mean I won’t vote for Bonnie.”
Meanwhile, asked about Ford, one thing stood out. “I don’t know if he could do anything about it but he’s vocal about the tariffs,” he said. “He’s the only one I could see who is standing against it. At least he’s using his voice.”
This resident’s biggest worry? Taxes. Peel Region had just green-lit a budget with a 5.4 per cent property tax hike. “Everything is going up. How about our income? Where do we get the money from?” he asked.
Time and again, both the cost of living and health care was a common theme at the doorstep. One voter, a Ford-leaning Liberal, told a candidate, who allowed us to tag along on a rapid canvass, that Crombie’s emphasis on primary care was “coming through.”
“I think he’s done a good job but I'm still undecided,” she said of the Progressive Conservative leader. “I’m not a fan of [the MPP]. I’m not a fan of Bonnie Crombie for no reason other than I just don’t like her style. Particularly, in this election, I find she’s taking the wrong style. It’s too much for me.”
As for Stiles, she was all praise. “She's with the wrong party, though. They’re never going to get in. I really like her.”
Ford didn’t win him over. Crombie didn’t either. Still, this voter, a staunch Liberal, was holding the line. “I don’t have a good feeling about her time as mayor,” he said. “To me, she was thinking about herself more than the city — that’s the feeling I got. All I hear from her is what she doesn’t like about Ford, but what is she going to do?”
“My problem is that there’s only a couple of weeks to make a decision. I know that’s why Ford [called a winter election] too.”
Of the voters who spoke, only one was all in for the Liberal leader. “I’m voting for Bonnie Crombie,” he said, closing the door behind him.
The Tories are eyeing a full sweep of all six seats. “We hold a 12-point lead across Mississauga. Smaller leads in East-Cooksville and Lakeshore and larger leads in the remaining ridings,” Nick Kouvalis, the Tories’ pollster, said. “The Ontario Liberals act as if they have already won — we just keep working hard to earn the votes one door at a time.”
“My view is that the Progressive Conservatives will sweep all six ridings,” Kouvalis added.
Privately, Liberals say the city will tell the tale of Crombie’s campaign. “Along with core Toronto, this should be the lowest-hanging fruit for us to pick up,” one source said.
“Mississauga will get the Bonnie Bounce or the Crombie Crumble,” a second added. “But this was not a normal election, and the really early call resulted in a short runway for the party to rebuild and launch the campaign it needed to in order to have a strong showing.”
Publisher’s note: This story has been updated to include a comment from Nick Kouvalis, the Progressive Conservatives’ go-to pollster.
On a typical day of door-knocking in the cold, you feel it twice — in the air and at the door.
“Sorry, I’m not interested,” a resident said as he quickly shut the door.
For many in Mississauga, political fatigue is running high. Over the summer, the province’s third largest city was thrust into a mayoral by-election to replace Bonnie Crombie, the third-term mayor who’d just become Liberal leader. Now, thrown into a provincial contest in the dead of winter, the city could make or break the former mayor’s political fate.
It’s home for Crombie — she frequently points to her time as mayor, which even Doug Ford, despite his critiques, once praised — but capturing all six seats in the city, let alone her own in East-Cooksville, is going to be an uphill climb.
Mississauga went all-in for Ford, turning entirely blue when the Liberal brand collapsed six years ago. Since then, the Progressive Conservatives have looked to shore up support in suburbia, cozying up to the new mayor and injecting new cash for transit and infrastructure, all while hammering the former mayor for her record through a wave of ads.
Crombie has local clout. As a home-town daughter, she doesn’t need an introduction. “We always voted for her,” one said. But while her name carries weight — something her allies are counting on to deliver a win — the response at the door is lukewarm, and voters aren’t automatically lining up behind her.
I went door-to-door in three ridings over three days to hear what voters had to say.
If you’re a visitor, you wouldn’t know a campaign is in full swing. In one swing neighbourhood, there was a rare lawn sign (for the None of the Above Party, an emblematic sight of voter disillusionment).
By 6 p.m., there were zero canvassers in sight.
And with over sixty doors knocked, most were not eager to chat.
When people did talk, they had a lot to say.
To protect their privacy, we’re granting anonymity to the voters we spoke with.
“There’s nothing to talk about, man. It’s a done deal,” one resident said, describing the early election as a “sham.” “What did they do to the economy? They messed up the whole economy.”
“Have you decided?” I ask.
“It’s one-word: ‘anti-incumbency.’ What was she even thinking when she ran for the Liberals?”
“So, you’re not voting for Crombie?” I followed up.
“Anybody other than her. They messed up the country. Forget the province, they messed up the country. I would spend money against her.”
The federal drag on the provincial party has been a challenge for the Liberal leader, as we previously reported. “It wouldn’t surprise me if Bonnie got a bus saying ‘not Trudeau’s Liberals,’” one source said in September.
A Liberal sign caught my eye, so I went up to the door. The resident opened the door and took a look at the sign. “We’re about to move that sign actually,” he said. “We’re not voting Liberal.”
Once loyal to the party, the resident said he was done with the Liberal brand. But when reminded it’s a provincial election, he shrugged: “We’re Conservative now, whoever it is. We want them wiped out.”
The voter, not sold on Ford, has chosen to sit out on Thursday. “The thing is, there’s some honesty, but I’m against his plan to build the Ontario Place spa,” he said of Ford.
“The truth is I’m not voting at all. We’re not participating. There’s no direction [my family] could support.”
Not a single option sat well with some. “I’m just disappointed with everyone,” one resident, visiting her parents, said. “None of them come through. They don’t care about seniors or people with disabilities.”
“I’m not thinking about it yet,” another added.
A third voter, quick to label himself as “the undecided,” said he previously voted for Crombie but wasn’t sure how he’d cast his ballot provincially.
He’s not politically active, he said, and he’s only ever heard of Crombie and Ford. “Bonnie Crombie was our mayor. She was our mayor for a long time. We love her. We always voted for her,” he said of the Liberal leader. “Now, it’s provincial so I’ll have to think a lot. It doesn’t mean I won’t vote for Bonnie.”
Meanwhile, asked about Ford, one thing stood out. “I don’t know if he could do anything about it but he’s vocal about the tariffs,” he said. “He’s the only one I could see who is standing against it. At least he’s using his voice.”
This resident’s biggest worry? Taxes. Peel Region had just green-lit a budget with a 5.4 per cent property tax hike. “Everything is going up. How about our income? Where do we get the money from?” he asked.
Time and again, both the cost of living and health care was a common theme at the doorstep. One voter, a Ford-leaning Liberal, told a candidate, who allowed us to tag along on a rapid canvass, that Crombie’s emphasis on primary care was “coming through.”
“I think he’s done a good job but I'm still undecided,” she said of the Progressive Conservative leader. “I’m not a fan of [the MPP]. I’m not a fan of Bonnie Crombie for no reason other than I just don’t like her style. Particularly, in this election, I find she’s taking the wrong style. It’s too much for me.”
As for Stiles, she was all praise. “She's with the wrong party, though. They’re never going to get in. I really like her.”
Ford didn’t win him over. Crombie didn’t either. Still, this voter, a staunch Liberal, was holding the line. “I don’t have a good feeling about her time as mayor,” he said. “To me, she was thinking about herself more than the city — that’s the feeling I got. All I hear from her is what she doesn’t like about Ford, but what is she going to do?”
“My problem is that there’s only a couple of weeks to make a decision. I know that’s why Ford [called a winter election] too.”
Of the voters who spoke, only one was all in for the Liberal leader. “I’m voting for Bonnie Crombie,” he said, closing the door behind him.
The Tories are eyeing a full sweep of all six seats. “We hold a 12-point lead across Mississauga. Smaller leads in East-Cooksville and Lakeshore and larger leads in the remaining ridings,” Nick Kouvalis, the Tories’ pollster, said. “The Ontario Liberals act as if they have already won — we just keep working hard to earn the votes one door at a time.”
“My view is that the Progressive Conservatives will sweep all six ridings,” Kouvalis added.
Privately, Liberals say the city will tell the tale of Crombie’s campaign. “Along with core Toronto, this should be the lowest-hanging fruit for us to pick up,” one source said.
“Mississauga will get the Bonnie Bounce or the Crombie Crumble,” a second added. “But this was not a normal election, and the really early call resulted in a short runway for the party to rebuild and launch the campaign it needed to in order to have a strong showing.”
Publisher’s note: This story has been updated to include a comment from Nick Kouvalis, the Progressive Conservatives’ go-to pollster.
On a typical day of door-knocking in the cold, you feel it twice — in the air and at the door.
“Sorry, I’m not interested,” a resident said as he quickly shut the door.
For many in Mississauga, political fatigue is running high. Over the summer, the province’s third largest city was thrust into a mayoral by-election to replace Bonnie Crombie, the third-term mayor who’d just become Liberal leader. Now, thrown into a provincial contest in the dead of winter, the city could make or break the former mayor’s political fate.
It’s home for Crombie — she frequently points to her time as mayor, which even Doug Ford, despite his critiques, once praised — but capturing all six seats in the city, let alone her own in East-Cooksville, is going to be an uphill climb.
Mississauga went all-in for Ford, turning entirely blue when the Liberal brand collapsed six years ago. Since then, the Progressive Conservatives have looked to shore up support in suburbia, cozying up to the new mayor and injecting new cash for transit and infrastructure, all while hammering the former mayor for her record through a wave of ads.
Crombie has local clout. As a home-town daughter, she doesn’t need an introduction. “We always voted for her,” one said. But while her name carries weight — something her allies are counting on to deliver a win — the response at the door is lukewarm, and voters aren’t automatically lining up behind her.
I went door-to-door in three ridings over three days to hear what voters had to say.
If you’re a visitor, you wouldn’t know a campaign is in full swing. In one swing neighbourhood, there was a rare lawn sign (for the None of the Above Party, an emblematic sight of voter disillusionment).
By 6 p.m., there were zero canvassers in sight.
And with over sixty doors knocked, most were not eager to chat.
When people did talk, they had a lot to say.
To protect their privacy, we’re granting anonymity to the voters we spoke with.
“There’s nothing to talk about, man. It’s a done deal,” one resident said, describing the early election as a “sham.” “What did they do to the economy? They messed up the whole economy.”
“Have you decided?” I ask.
“It’s one-word: ‘anti-incumbency.’ What was she even thinking when she ran for the Liberals?”
“So, you’re not voting for Crombie?” I followed up.
“Anybody other than her. They messed up the country. Forget the province, they messed up the country. I would spend money against her.”
The federal drag on the provincial party has been a challenge for the Liberal leader, as we previously reported. “It wouldn’t surprise me if Bonnie got a bus saying ‘not Trudeau’s Liberals,’” one source said in September.
A Liberal sign caught my eye, so I went up to the door. The resident opened the door and took a look at the sign. “We’re about to move that sign actually,” he said. “We’re not voting Liberal.”
Once loyal to the party, the resident said he was done with the Liberal brand. But when reminded it’s a provincial election, he shrugged: “We’re Conservative now, whoever it is. We want them wiped out.”
The voter, not sold on Ford, has chosen to sit out on Thursday. “The thing is, there’s some honesty, but I’m against his plan to build the Ontario Place spa,” he said of Ford.
“The truth is I’m not voting at all. We’re not participating. There’s no direction [my family] could support.”
Not a single option sat well with some. “I’m just disappointed with everyone,” one resident, visiting her parents, said. “None of them come through. They don’t care about seniors or people with disabilities.”
“I’m not thinking about it yet,” another added.
A third voter, quick to label himself as “the undecided,” said he previously voted for Crombie but wasn’t sure how he’d cast his ballot provincially.
He’s not politically active, he said, and he’s only ever heard of Crombie and Ford. “Bonnie Crombie was our mayor. She was our mayor for a long time. We love her. We always voted for her,” he said of the Liberal leader. “Now, it’s provincial so I’ll have to think a lot. It doesn’t mean I won’t vote for Bonnie.”
Meanwhile, asked about Ford, one thing stood out. “I don’t know if he could do anything about it but he’s vocal about the tariffs,” he said. “He’s the only one I could see who is standing against it. At least he’s using his voice.”
This resident’s biggest worry? Taxes. Peel Region had just green-lit a budget with a 5.4 per cent property tax hike. “Everything is going up. How about our income? Where do we get the money from?” he asked.
Time and again, both the cost of living and health care was a common theme at the doorstep. One voter, a Ford-leaning Liberal, told a candidate, who allowed us to tag along on a rapid canvass, that Crombie’s emphasis on primary care was “coming through.”
“I think he’s done a good job but I'm still undecided,” she said of the Progressive Conservative leader. “I’m not a fan of [the MPP]. I’m not a fan of Bonnie Crombie for no reason other than I just don’t like her style. Particularly, in this election, I find she’s taking the wrong style. It’s too much for me.”
As for Stiles, she was all praise. “She's with the wrong party, though. They’re never going to get in. I really like her.”
Ford didn’t win him over. Crombie didn’t either. Still, this voter, a staunch Liberal, was holding the line. “I don’t have a good feeling about her time as mayor,” he said. “To me, she was thinking about herself more than the city — that’s the feeling I got. All I hear from her is what she doesn’t like about Ford, but what is she going to do?”
“My problem is that there’s only a couple of weeks to make a decision. I know that’s why Ford [called a winter election] too.”
Of the voters who spoke, only one was all in for the Liberal leader. “I’m voting for Bonnie Crombie,” he said, closing the door behind him.
The Tories are eyeing a full sweep of all six seats. “We hold a 12-point lead across Mississauga. Smaller leads in East-Cooksville and Lakeshore and larger leads in the remaining ridings,” Nick Kouvalis, the Tories’ pollster, said. “The Ontario Liberals act as if they have already won — we just keep working hard to earn the votes one door at a time.”
“My view is that the Progressive Conservatives will sweep all six ridings,” Kouvalis added.
Privately, Liberals say the city will tell the tale of Crombie’s campaign. “Along with core Toronto, this should be the lowest-hanging fruit for us to pick up,” one source said.
“Mississauga will get the Bonnie Bounce or the Crombie Crumble,” a second added. “But this was not a normal election, and the really early call resulted in a short runway for the party to rebuild and launch the campaign it needed to in order to have a strong showing.”
Publisher’s note: This story has been updated to include a comment from Nick Kouvalis, the Progressive Conservatives’ go-to pollster.