Smith's swan song and a mayoral mission
Plus: everything you need to know at AMO, more fresh faces, McGrath's notebook, Ford rallies the base, the PO's DJ, fundraising watch, more Mantha drama, Parrish's slip up, "not funny," Doug and more
Mayors, councillors, bureaucrats, ministers and municipal wonks are trekking to the capital for the Association of Municipalities of Ontario’s annual conference. But to start — inside Smith’s surprise exit and why it’s poured more fuel on early election whispers.
THE LEDE
Premier Doug Ford has, again, rejiggered his cabinet — promoting Jill Dunlop, Nolan Quinn and two backbenchers — with Todd Smith’s abrupt resignation.
“I have spoken to Premier Ford to let him know that I am resigning my seat and stepping down from my cabinet duties,” Smith, who has represented Bay of Quinte for over a decade, said, announcing the decision to accept a gig in the private sector. “I also want to thank Premier Ford for the opportunity to serve in his cabinet for more than six years.”
Ford thanked Smith for his “many years of service.” “He leaves politics with a record that he can be incredibly proud of, including and especially fixing the previous government’s energy policies and bringing electricity prices down for hardworking families and businesses.”
The big picture: It’s been less than two months since the veteran was named as Stephen Lecce’s replacement at education and his decision to quit comes just weeks before the start of the school year. Viewed as a top communicator, Smith — whose wife is a vice principal — was expected to have an easy path building ties with the teachers’ unions, with the last of the province’s big four inking labour deals in early March. Still, word is he wasn’t happy with the switch — to illustrate, he talked up his work at energy with no nod to education in his farewell letter.
“Education is the government’s toughest portfolio. There are many stakeholders, no one is ever happy. It’s about people’s children,” one sector source said.
But behind the scenes, according to one Conservative source, the decision was personal. “Some people don’t know when to leave politics. That’s not true in his case,” they said. “It’s a good long run. He’s just in a different phase of life now. His kids are grown and out of the house. This is him leaving on top.”
“You wish more politicians would,” the source added.
Still, his abrupt exit is pouring more fuel on early election whispers. That’s because, while Tories aren’t expected to set their nomination process into motion until the fall, everyone’s still, privately, gearing up. Incumbents will be quietly pressured to quickly decide whether they’ll stick around, step aside or, say, make a federal leap. Those planning to exit might bow out sooner rather than later, allowing a replacement to gain ground locally before the campaign is kicked into high gear.
Timing is everything. Ford has six months — until February — to call a vote in The Bay. A special election isn’t a cheap operation and it’s rarely scheduled close to a general election.
If the speculation of a spring election is true, does Ford wait it out? That could be the best hint as to when — and if — a snap vote will happen. Time will tell.
Meanwhile: With Smith’s surprise exit, Dunlop is taking over at education. In the education sector, there’s wariness: “Her track record at the post secondary level speaks for itself and not in a good way,” one labour source texted. “We’re willing to try and have dialogue with any government about improving the education sector but like Lecce, there isn’t a history of being genuinely open or inviting to anyone that doesn't support their agenda.”
Quinn will replace her at post secondary. Kevin Holland will enter cabinet as associate forestry minister, while Graham McGregor — viewed, internally, as a rising star — is the new associate minister of car theft and bail reform and is expected to take on the federal government over the bail system’s overhaul.
With one new job, it’s an even larger front bench. “Oh my,” one reader wrote. “It’s how Ford works around a salary increase, something which wouldn’t go over well with his base. Ministers and PAs get a salary bump — that’s why he has such an enormous cabinet.”
As one source said in June: “The cabinet doesn’t have enough chairs.”
Mayoral moves at AMO — It’s AMO week. With ministers, municipal leaders and policy gurus en route to Ottawa for the Association of Municipalities of Ontario’s annual conference, we asked big city and small town mayors what’s on their agenda:
— Patrick Brown, Brampton: “Like other municipalities in Ontario, Brampton faces challenges in providing affordable housing for residents, improving transit, mitigating the impact of climate change, providing a second hospital for Brampton and a cancer centre for a growing and ageing population.”
— Carolyn Parrish, Mississauga: “My key priorities are grants and other sources of assistance that will facilitate housing starts. Specifically, we will be looking for an increase in our social service grants for mandated programs. We have been stuck at 60 percent of those grants for over 30 years, whereas Toronto and Halton — amongst others — receive 100 percent. The difference is made up by our taxpayers and amounts to over $860 million a year. We would be happy to see a multi-year phase in but we need an increase urgently.”
— Kevin Ashe, Pickering: “As we head into the conference, our goal is to advocate for the resources and support needed to ensure Pickering’s long term success and wellbeing, and for the facility and service investments required to serve our diverse community.”
— Annette Groves, Caledon: “We will be meeting on critical needs such as physician recruitment, aggregates, transportation and illegal land use.”
In the meantime: Ontario’s Big City Mayors launched a new campaign this week — “Solve the Crisis” — calling on the province to appoint a standalone cabinet minister to respond to increased homelessness. “What is happening on our streets across this province is an unprecedented humanitarian crisis,” warned chair Marianne Meed Ward.
The group is calling for: extra cash to fund “appropriate services,” tools and resources to transition existing encampments to “more appropriate supports” and an investment in all day, all week community hubs and crisis centres to “relieve pressure” on emergency centres and responders.
“There are too many people unhoused, living in encampments or other unsafe conditions and they’re struggling with mental health and addiction issues. This is growing and it impacts every single municipality across our province — large and small, rural and urban.”
With “nearly a quarter of a million people” homeless, per government estimates, expect homelessness and mental health to be at the front and centre. It, too, will likely be the focus of Premier Ford's keynote address tomorrow.
Same with housing. “I think the current hot issue is everything to do with housing and how we can make approvals more quickly,” a senior GTHA municipal source said. “It’s sucking all the air out of the room.”
Reporter’s notebook — The highlight of AMO is the Ministers’ Forum: a town hall where municipal leaders question Ford’s front bench on a range of local topics. Back in the moderator’s chair for year four is TVO’s John Michael McGrath.
We asked McGrath about how he’s getting ready and what he’s expecting to hear. He wrote in:
— “Even before I was a participant at AMO, the ministers’ forum was the highlight of the week. Being at the lectern is obviously a different experience — it’s more intimidating and I’m not even the one being peppered with questions.”
— “Fundamentally, it’s not my show, it’s AMO’s — I let the delegates and the ministers be the stars (Unless the questions or answers start to go long, then it’s my role to politely ask people to get on with it).”
— “This year’s somewhat larger cabinet means I’ll be prepping to share the stage with a few more names and faces than prior years but the most interesting thing for me is always the questions. This year, I’ll be listening to those questions to get a sense of how municipal leaders are approaching the homelessness crisis most of all, though like last year, I expect to also hear about the government’s relative lack of action on municipal integrity rules.”
— “The most interesting questions are the ones you don't expect — as much as I try to keep up on what’s happening around the province, AMO is still one of the best ways to hear from local officials about what's happening in their communities.”
AT THE PALACE
— The House is adjourned for the summer.
— No committee meetings are scheduled next week.
— Fundraising watch: Here’s what’s up on the fundraising circuit this week:
PC: A fundraiser in St. Catharines and Niagara on Wednesday.
Liberal: Andrea Hazell headlined a “fundraiser brunch” at JC’s Banquet Hall yesterday. On Thursday, the Etobicoke Lakeshore riding association will host an “Evening by the Lake,” featuring Jean Augustine and former candidate Lee Fairclough.
(Take note: We’re told that Fairclough, a hospital executive who was considered a star recruit in the last round, is expected to carry the banner in the riding once more. We reached out to ask her but didn’t hear back).
NDP: A fundraiser in Ottawa at Eggspectation, featuring Stiles and caucus.
— Rain or shine: Premier Ford rallied the troops at Ford Fest — his annual community barbecue — at the Country Heritage Park in Milton. Early election fanatics, wink wink.
On the scene: In his stump speech, Ford spoke about EV, healthcare, transit and the carbon tax. “Now, we’ve got to send a message to Trudeau to cut the carbon tax,” he said.
While considering an early election, Ford tried to make the ideological contrast clear. “I know the opposition doesn’t get it. They want to bring back a carbon tax, as well,” he explained. “They want to take money out of your pockets. The worst place you could give your money is to the government. We believe, keep it in your pockets. You could spend it a lot wiser than the government can spend it.”
As Ford spoke, a pair of protesters unfurled a “Doug and the Thugs” banner in demonstration. Outside, the Ontario Federation of Labour rallied, with free buses to transport from Toronto, Hamilton and Kitchener.
Also on site: A sea of dark blue “Ford Fest” tees. Mayor Gord Krantz’s two types of people: “Miltonians” and “those who wish you were.” A dozen Gaza protestors crash the barbecue with one taken down and in custody. Hotdogs, burgers, ice cream, pop, lemonade and a bounce house. An unlikely vis à vis. DJ Dan Jacobs — a member of Ford’s inner circle by day — at the turntable, spinning those hit tracks.
— Nomination tracker: Karen McCrimmon will carry the Liberal banner in Kanata. Chandra Pasma and Terence Kernaghan have been nominated to carry the NDP's banner in Ottawa West Nepean and London North Centre, respectively. Both parties are in a hurry to nominate candidates with the threat of an early election looming.
Speaking of a nomination blitz:
— First in POLICORNER — A trove of wannabe Liberal candidates — those who’ve declared their intent to run — received their nomination packages three weeks ago. The timeline is snug: “All four documents must be completed and returned to the Ontario Liberal Party within seven days” following “the approval of the nomination plan, for a nomination contestant to be included on the ballot of a nomination meeting.”
That accelerated timeline is on par with Bonnie Crombie’s ambitious goal: the captain is hoping to have half the slate, including herself, approved by September, with a roster unveiled at the policy convention in September.
With the nomination frenzy in full force, this newsletter will keep track of all the nitty gritty. Soon, we'll have a handy, interactive list available, updated weekly. Reach out if you’re running — or planning to.
— Stiles’ tour, continued: The NDP leader took her summer swing to Algoma last weekend (coincidence: it’s the riding held by Michael Mantha, who was booted from caucus over workplace misconduct). She also went to Scarborough, Hamilton, Serpent River First Nation, Humber River Black Creek and spoke at Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario’s AGM.
— Goldie Ghamari — who was expelled from the government’s caucus after a call with Tommy Robinson, founder of the English Defence League, now under investigation for his involvement in the Southport riot — says Ford and key advisor Kory Teneycke are “Islamofascist IRGC terrorist bootlickers.”
Ghamari said that despite being removed from caucus, Ford and Teneycke are “stalking her:” both, who follow her on Instagram, viewed her story.
No response from Ford or Teneycke on whether Ghamari's comment is considered libelous.
— A friend with clout: Former councillor and Ford friend Gary Crawford has been appointed chair of the Ontario Cannabis Store — but he wants you to know that he doesn’t use cannabis and hasn’t since university.
“[Crawford] said he applied about a year ago, through a government website, to be considered for a provincial public appointment. Months later he got a call asking if he was interested in filling a coming vacancy on the board.”
— Premier Ford and Energy Minister Stephen Lecce sat down with ABC Australia to chat about the province's plan to "expand our nuclear footprint."
— Ford’s viral “folks, don’t be pooping on the beach” moment made it on The Late Show earlier this week.
AMO AGENDA
— At AMO — Here’s what’s lined up at the municipalities’ conference this week:
Sunday:
12:30 p.m.: AMO executives and municipal leaders will speak to reporters about key priorities ahead of the conference's start
2 p.m. to 7 p.m.: Trade Show (Canada Hall, Shaw Centre)
3 p.m. to 4:30 p.m.: You pick. A trio of sessions at the Westin (connected to the Shaw Centre): “Asset Management and Psychological Safety,” “Practical Tips Towards a More Age Friendly Community” and “Leverage the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program”
Monday:
7:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.: Trade Show (Canada Hall, Shaw Centre)
8:30 a.m. to 9 a.m.: Keynote speech by the Globe’s Andrew Coyne
9 a.m. to 9:15 a.m.: Ontario Regional Chief Abram Benedict
9:15 a.m. to 9:25 a.m.: AMO president Colin Best
10 a.m. to 10:10 a.m.: Lieutenant Governor Edith Dumont
10:13 a.m. to 10:23 a.m.: Premier Doug Ford
10:40 a.m. to 11:40 a.m.: Women’s Leadership Forum, moderated by TVO’s Nam Kiwanuka
Tabatha Bull (Canadian Council for Indigenous Business)
Lisa Laronde (Canadian Association of Women in Construction)
Dionne Sinclair (Centre for Addiction and Mental Health)
1:45 p.m. to 1:55 p.m.: The Canada Community-Building Fund's annual ceremony
2 p.m. to 2:10 p.m.: NDP leader Marit Stiles
2:20 p.m. to 2:30 p.m.: Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie
2:40 p.m. to 2:50 p.m.: Green leader Mike Schreiner
3:30 p.m. to 4:45 p.m.: Another round of concurrent sessions at the Westin: “Provincial Policy Statement and Building Code Changes,” “Community Safety and Wellbeing Plans,” “Supporting Access to Health Services,” “Diversifying Ontario’s Municipal Leadership,” “MPAC Insights — Meeting Evolving Partner Needs” and “Partnering with Urban Indigenous Organizations”
5:30 p.m.: Crombie and caucus will host a reception at the Westin, inside the Governor General’s ballroom.
Tuesday:
8:30 a.m. to 9:45 a.m.: You pick. Concurrent seminars: “Adapting to Changing Roles in Environmental Management” (Westin), “Ending Homelessness: Acting Locally with Impact” (Room 206/208, Shaw Centre), “First Nations’ Guidance and Expectations on Land Use Planning” (Westin), “A Lifecycle Look at Recreation Infrastructure” (Room 205/207, Shaw Centre) and “Enhancing Long-Term Financial Sustainability” (Westin)
10 a.m. to 10:05 a.m.: FCM president Geoff Stewart
10:10 a.m. to 11:55 a.m.: The Importance of Fiscally Sustainable Municipalities, moderated by TVO’s Nam Kiwanuka
Daniel Tisch (Ontario Chamber of Commerce)
Nishan Duraiappah (Peel Regional Police)
Cameron Love (Ottawa Hospital)
10:55 a.m. to 11:30 a.m.: Steve Orsini (Council of Ontario Universities) and Brian Lewis (Munk School)
12 p.m.: Stiles and caucus will host a lunch social at the Westin — an opportunity “to chat with members of our caucus” about municipal priorities. Light canapes will be available.
1 p.m. to 2:15 p.m.: Round two of workshops: “Strengthening Public Health” (Westin), “Municipalities and the Opioid Epidemic” (Room 206/208, Shaw Centre), “AI and Municipalities” (Westin) and “Preparing for Energy Procurements” (Westin)
2:50 p.m. to 2:57 p.m.: Health Minister Sylvia Jones
2:57 p.m. to 3:05 p.m.: Infrastructure Minister Kinga Surma
3:30 p.m. to 3:40 p.m.: Housing Minister Paul Calandra
3:40 p.m. to 4:45 p.m.: Ministers’ Forum, moderated by TVO’s John Michael McGrath
Wednesday:
8:35 a.m. to 9:35 a.m.: Housing in Ontario, moderated by TVO’s Steve Paikin
Mike Moffat (PLACE Centre)
Lisa Helps (BC Builds and BC Housing)
Neil Rodgers (Ontario Home Builders Association)
Jag Sharma (City of Toronto)
9:55 a.m. to 10:55 a.m.: Thinking Differently About Infrastructure, moderated by Paikin.
Ehren Corey (Canada Infrastructure Bank)
Drew Fagan (Munk School)
Lisa Laronde (Canadian Association of Women in Construction)
Craig Dyer (Region of Waterloo)
IN THE NEWS
— Mantha drama: Despite an internal probe concluding he “sexually harassed” an aide “on a regular basis,” requesting explicit photos, Michael Mantha says he’s not stepping down and will seek another term — and it’s led some in his former fold to speak up, calling on him to quit.
“The last two years have been very challenging, but it is time to move past this matter,” he said in a statement on the external investigator’s conclusions, news which broke in this newsletter last week. “While I disagree with some of the characterizations made, on the advice of my legal counsel I will not be commenting further at this time.”
Mantha said he’ll stay on for the remainder of the term — leaving his political fate “in the hands of voters.”
Now, another former ally — Lynn Dee Eason, the president of Mantha’s former riding association and a provincial executive member — is speaking out.
In an open letter, Dee Eason said the riding “deserves the integrity we voted for.” “Mantha, who claims he respects us, has not shown this for the survivor of his harassment, nor for the constituents who elected him, and has stonewalled his way through this investigation,” she wrote. “For two years, he has taken no accountability for his actions, claiming to be 'baffled' by the allegations.”
“We call on Mr. Mantha to take full responsibility for his actions and resign immediately from the position.”
— First in POLICORNER — Mississauga mayor Carolyn Parrish is drawing some criticism over a comment made at a Mississauga Board of Trade event on Tuesday. “Halton Region doesn’t have any poor people but they pretend they do,” she said.
According to Statistics Canada’s last census, over 34,000 people in the region are living in poverty, with 49.7 percent in Oakville, 21 percent in Burlington, 21 percent in Milton and 8 percent in Halton Hills.
“Absurd,” one source said. “Uh excuse me? She said what?” a second texted.
She also took a hit at her predecessor. “The brick wall is down in Mississauga,” Parrish said, in an apparent jab at former mayor Bonnie Crombie. As reported, though chummy on camera, the duo’s relationship has been sour.
— An impromptu comment by Premier Ford quickly eclipsed an animal hospital’s big launch, leaving the opposition in attack mode.
“By the looks of it, we know where we can send the overflow patients now for MRIs and CAT scans and everything else,” Ford said.
Political rivals didn’t laugh, quick to pounce. “This isn’t funny. It’s disgraceful. He’s not in it for you or your family,” Crombie said. “Now Doug Ford thinks the crisis and chaos he’s created is a laughing matter,” Stiles added. “The jokes on you, Doug.”
Ford’s team says the joke was a reference to the size of the hospital but touted the Tories’ expansion of diagnostic capacity. “We are adding over 49 new MRI machines and 50 new CT scanners in hospitals across the province, increasing capacity to perform nearly 500,000 hours of MRI and CT scans,” spokesperson Grace Lee said.
— Internal Ministry of Transportation documents obtained by Jessica Smith Cross show the province “knows the 413 won’t end the gridlock, despite government MPPs’ frequent suggestions that it will.” A spokesperson for Transportation Minister Prab Sarkaria said the corridor “will be wide enough to protect for future expansion to ten lanes, if warranted,” but didn’t dispute the grim forecast.
— Ontario’s economic watchdog says the province’s housing starts in the second quarter declined. There were 19,300 units started, down from the 25,500 units started during the same period last year. Of these, 81 percent were multi-unit dwellings, while 19 percent were single detached houses.
Mike’s take: Green leader Mike Schreiner took a swipe at the Tories, accusing them of “standing in the way” of the province’s housing progress, adding that legalizing gentle density, as his party has advocated for, is “the cheapest and fastest way to build more homes in existing neighbourhoods.”
Plus: the Financial Accountability Office (FAO) found that in quarter one, while GDP “increased 0.7 percent with widespread gains across most spending categories,” economic indicators “suggest mixed results” for the second quarter, with “gains in employment and wholesale trade, but weakness in retail sales, housing market activity, manufacturing sales and net exports.”
WHAT WE'RE READING
— John Michael McGrath says Ottawa has a good reason to call on Ottawa to pony up with cash.
— Ontario’s pharmacy regulatory body has cleared a board member in a probe that threatened to derail the regulator’s promise to tackle unethical corporate practices.
— A council tasked with advising the province on “land use planning matters related to the Greenbelt” has been asleep, without a chair and only two members on board.
— A “brutal act of collective punishment” against inmates, impacting court cases, is under investigation by the Solicitor General.
— Isaac Callan and Colin D'Mello report that Ontario was ready to table municipal conduct law but it bill failed to materialize and disappeared into a vacuum.
— In his last act as education minister, Todd Smith unveiled a new funding formula for child care.
— A new study shows “enormous” differences across the province in wait times for common surgeries.
— On Ford’s vet joke, Brian Lilley says the problem isn’t the joke but the fact that it’s easier to get an MRI for your cat than your kid.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Todd Smith? Dan Jacobs with a song rec? A delegate at AMO? Hit me up with all the ground talk, conference gossip and your early election prediction: summer or fall. I’ll keep you anon. We’re back in your inbox on Friday.