Plus: Dippers defy, drama in Mississauga, who's who in the war rooms, on the order paper, wannabe Liberal candidates gear up, Bonnie and Paul, face à face; poll watch, the big O sued and GO suckers
Premier Doug Ford’s Tories dealt Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals a wipeout in bellwether Milton. PC Zee Hamid — a former regional councillor and mayoral candidate with past Liberal ties — beat out Liberal Galen Naidoo Harris with a nine point lead.
“We’re fortunate, we’re blessed. We’re very humbled about the victory,” a jubilant Ford said at the Shoeless Joe’s, his candidate’s hub in Milton. “The support from the community was absolutely incredible.”
Nearby, at the East Side Mario’s, the vibe quickly soured and the room’s enthusiasm quickly turned focus to the Bay Street Bullies. Crombie, who earlier mulled over a local run, fessed up that she expected a win. “I know this was a really tough race for all of you. You put your heart and your soul in it, and I know you thought we were going to win — and so did I,” she said. “Tonight let’s raise a glass to the grit that it takes to participate in our democracy and tomorrow, because we’re grits, we get back to work.”
Despite the polls showing dead heat in town, a controversial quarry that formed staunch community opposition and a blitz of goodies, it was a race with plenty at stake — and both parties threw the kitchen sink. While Ford looked to maintain his blue grip over the town, Crombie sought to start the build of a fortress in the Greater Toronto Area and upsize her caucus.Cabinet ministers and their teams canvassed for Hamid, while provincial and federal Liberals, along with local education unions, door knocked for Naidoo Harris.
A preliminary copy of a poll-by-poll tally we obtained over the weekend, now public, shows where the Tories outrivaled — and the impact of the quarry quarrel on Hamid and Naidoo Harris’ vote split.
Let’s dig in.
Hamid clinched victory in thirty-eight out of the forty-eight locations, while Naidoo Harris came on top in ten.
Advanced polling: In all four early voting stations, Hamid won — with the closest race between him and Naidoo Harris in controversial Campbellville, with a four vote gap at the Nassagaweya Tennis Centre and Community Hall.
Hamid outperformed his predecessor,who won at only three stations.
The elderly electorate: Among elderly voters at senior facilities, Naidoo Harris came on top. That’s a change from the last election, when Gill beat local Liberal candidate Sameera Ali at three locations.
But the reason for that is unclear. “Perhaps Galen visited but Zee did not? Maybe Indira [Naidoo Harris] has a good reputation with seniors?” one speculated.
In Campbellville: Hamid won at two of three voting stations. The third, according to the tally, went red. It’s a concentrated Conservative zone — but the quarry, which Ford had promised to quash, had been a thorny issue throughout the race.
Both parties zeroed in on the quarry quibblers. In a note to Action Milton, a local community group, Hamid doubled down on his promise to “stop the Campbellville Quarry from happening.” “All indications are that it is going to be close,” he said the day before. “Your vote will make a difference.”
“We’re going through an EDA assessment,” Ford said after Zee’s win. “Once that’s done, we’ll sit down and make that decision.”
Still, cabinet ministers were dispatched to the riding amid troubling internal polling. “We had too many people on the trail from the ministry offices that we didn’t even know where to send them in the riding,” one Tory source said, granted anonymity to discuss internal matters.
“We got a little nervous when we saw polling data a couple weeks ago,” the source added.
Meanwhile, the shade is aplenty across both parties.
Ford said he’d “have never seen a candidate with more name recognition” than Hamid. But the local candidate was not without controversy. Hamid, who placed second in the last mayoral race, made a failed bid for a federal Liberal nomination, was the town’s delegate for Steven Del Duca in his leadership run and met with Crombie to explore carrying the Liberal banner, to the distaste of many — including his OG captain.
“I don't agree with people who change their values and move over for opportunity, which is what seemed to have happened,” Crombie said.
“When Zee was named the Conservative candidate, the strong conservative keyboard enthusiasts in the various Milton community forums were aghast. Liberals were ticked he switched sides,” a source said. “Zee always supported the Liberals until it was no longer convenient for him,” another added.
For Crombie’s team, the drub, considered a test drive for the next election is raising the alarm bells— and a call for a “culture change.”
One senior operative pointed to Justin Trudeau’s federal Liberals’ unpopularity as the major hurdle at the door. Indeed, that obstacle was noted by some. Volunteers were told to clearly distinguish between the provincial and federal parties — and their leaders — when at the door. Speaking to canvassers, Crombie, too, gave the same marching orders:“If you’re at the door and they say federal election, say no! No! She’s the leader, not the other guy,” she explained.
“Nearly everyone who was voting Conservative said it was about the prime minister,” one canvasser said on background, recounting an exchange with one voter.“I told her, ‘sorry, you’re too late — the polls are closed,’” they said. “She started swearing and yelling ‘I have to vote!’ I assume the person she was on the phone with said something like, ‘it doesn't matter,’ because she yelled, ‘it does matter, I have to get rid of the Liberals!’”
“Bonnie has people around her that believe too strongly she’s the next premier,” a source warned. Aspiring candidates are “warming up to Bonnie rather than working hard in their communities and at the grassroots level with the party,” they added. “Team Bonnie needs to work harder and smarter across the province.”
Another operative said the same. “I think the results signal that the party is not ready for prime time,” they texted. “Talk for weeks has been that it’s time for Bonnie to clean house.”
Three more themes recur: more money, less Milton, scarf squabble.
— On money: “Come to terms with our limited resources and start planning how to most efficiently deploy them for maximum impact,” a senior Liberal source implored.
“I think there was a belief that Bonnie would immediately raise money and quite easily. I’m not sure that’s working out — money’s coming in, it’s just not pouring in as I think some people assumed,” another noted. “There needs to be some work to get Ontarians to know who she is, what she and the party are about.”
“Raise enough money for her own ads to target Doug back,” a third reiterated.
— On Milton: That’s no reference to the riding but to Milton Chan, the party’s legal counsel and Naidoo Harris’ campaign manager, who is known to be “very skillful” and “very good at nominations.” “It was questionable,” said one source of the party’s pick. “I don’t think Milton the person understood how complicated the town of Milton is.”
“The days when Milton could be in charge are gone and now he’s nothing more than just an advisor. It’s in Bonnie’s best interest to recognize that,” an operative charged.
“This is why Bonnie has to be very careful. This Milton in Milton experiment after Yasir [Naqvi] went super hard on Bonnie obviously failed,” a third source said.
But there’s still more woes. In an Instagram post, Chan wrote: “Hope you suckers like the one extra train from Santa DoFo.” It has since been edited.
A party spokesperson didn’t respond when asked for comment on the caption.
— On Gaza: WithMilton’s sizeable Muslim community, some organizers point to discontent with both the federal and provincial Grits’ response to the war in Gaza — which was echoed at the door, we’re told. “Bonnie made a bad bet,” said a source in the community. “She should have put a Muslim there no matter what — and if the Tories won, it would have validated that [anti-Trudeau] theory.”
“It’s no secret. The community hates the Liberals,” another said. “They didn’t vote for them because they hate them. They hate Trudeau — but she failed to distinguish herself from that.”
But Crombie still wouldn’t say the G word. “There are a lot of factors at play here. We can’t suppose why people voted the way they did,” she said when asked.
It’s another story for the Dippers — but some aren’t sweating it. The party’s vote share dropped in the riding with local candidate Edie Strachan in third, at a distant seven per cent.
“Milton is a natural Liberal seat, and it’s pretty shocking that they couldn’t win it,” pointed party strategist Erin Morrison. “Could they end up like Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan?”
Others, though, aren’t holding back. “You would have thought we would have learned our lessons from losing the past three byelections before getting decimated in these two, but we obviously didn’t. In fact, we have doubled down on past failures,” one source said.
“If we want to get serious about running for government, [Stiles] will need to revisit the talent pool of those who are advising her.”
Over in Lambton: PC Steve Pinsonneault held the traditional Tory territory blue, with a thirty-four point lead over the Liberal candidate in second.
— The House is in session. Here’s what’s on the docket for the rest of the week:
Wednesday: Energy Minister Todd Smith's Keeping Energy Costs Down Act is up for debate this morning. PC Dawn Gallagher Murphy’s motion on AI, for the province to “adopt methods to assess potential risks and judge the successful adoption and ethical use” of AI use in government will be debated at noon. The night sitting is TBD.
Thursday: Two mystery bills will be debated in the AM and PM. NDP MPP Wayne Gates’ motion to implement a support payment for unpaid caregivers will hit the floor.
— Meanwhile, on the committee circuit:
At Finance and Economic Affairs: The committee will meet throughout the day for a clause à clause examination of the budget.
At Justice Policy: It’s public hearings for Solicitor General Michael Kerzner’s Preventing Unethical Puppy Sales Act — which would prohibit puppy mills. The crew will meet again to consider estimates. They’re back at it with Kerzner’s puppy bill on Thursday.
At Heritage: Same old. The committee will convene to consider estimates.
At Government Agencies: A hearing tomorrow morning with potential government appointees — Genevieve Painchaud and Bonnie Oakes Charron to join the Child and Family Services Review Board.
At Procedure and House Affairs: A closed session.
— A pair of PC MPPs cooking up vine leaf rolls for Orthodox Easter (this reporter’s top Egyptian dish so +1 to both).
— Speaker Ted Arnott has scaled back his explosive ban on the keffiyeh around the precinct. Arnott said that when the issue was raised, he “reviewed the matter” and “concluded that a member seeking to wear the keffiyeh in the chamber was intending to make an overt political statement” on the war in Gaza.
“I stand by that conclusion, and I believe that events which have transpired since have confirmed it to be true,” he added.
That’s a reference to independent Sarah Jama — who is married to a Palestinian — wearing the traditional Arab scarf inside the chamber after a handful of PC MPPs quashed a unanimous consent motion to reverse the ban. She was then kicked out. “It has fostered division and discord, both in this House and in our communities in the province,” he reiterated.
The verdict: Arnott ruled that those wearing the scarf “would be permitted entry to the legislative precinct” but it cannot be worn in the chamber or the galleries.
Still: NDPers are defying. Jill Andrew was ejected for wearing the checkered scarf this morning. Two other NDP MPPs — Joel Harden and Kristyn Wong-Tam — wore it with Jama on Monday and walked out of the chamber after being warned. Jama, meanwhile, was named and asked to leave. Andrew and Lisa Gretzky also left the chamber, along with Green Aislinn Clancy.
“While we can spend time to recognize genocides of the past, we struggle to recognize genocides of the present,” Jama said. “Wearing the [scarf] is a testament to the fact that Palestinians have the right to return, they have the right to exist and they do not deserve to be genocided,” she added.
What’s next: While Stiles pledged her caucus would violate the ban, only two did — but more could be OTW. Stiles says her team is considering next steps but has promised to force a recorded vote to reverse the ban inside the chamber. A majority of members, including a quarter of PC MPPs, would need to vote in favour of the motion and it would not need to pass unanimously.
— The sleepy race to replace Bonnie Crombie as Mississauga’s mayor is heating up — and it’s all eyes on the suburb with taxcussations, a triple foot in mouth and the who’s who on each crew.
Axe the tax, hike the spike: Candidate Alvin Tedjo — the past Liberal leadership wannabe whose bid we scooped — says rival Carolyn Parrish should “be clear with people about why she thinks she needs to raise [property] taxes and by how much.” Parrish told us that her pledge is to keep the tax “to cost of living increases or less.”
She’s not the only one in the middle of the tax talk. Former Liberal minister Dipika Damerla shot back at Tedjo’s promise to freeze property taxes by “raiding a rainy day fund” as “irresponsible.”
Foot in mouth(s): Parrish, meanwhile, is facing the heat over a triplet of hot takes at a debate on Monday, labelled “racist” and “transphobic.” Parrish accused immigrants of “sitting around smoking cigarettes all day” while calling it “a waste of energy, it’s a waste of our money.” She also spoke on Brampton and gender identity in schools.
Meet the crew: The war rooms are still revving up — but as of now, it’s a who’s who of familiar faces:
— Kim Carson — the mayor of Limerick who worked on Patrick Brown’s inaugural mayoral bid in Brampton — is Parrish’s campaign manager. George Carlson and Pat Saito are advising their former council peer.
— Liberal strategist Tom Allison is managing Damerla’s bid, with PR guy Aleem Kanji as campaign chair. Karman Wong is heading up media. Allison ran Ana Bailão’s bid in Toronto and will oversee Bonnie Crombie’s provincial campaign in the next election.
Look who: Allison made a quick hit on CTV, seemingly masquerading as a resident supporting Damerla after Monday’s debate. “He totally pretended, it looked so bad,” said one keen-eyed source.
Allison the resident. “[Damerla] was articulate and I really liked what she had to say,” he said.
—Liz Mendes — the former Liberal candidate in Lakeshore — is Tedjo’s campaign director. Crombie’s de facto chief Darryn McArthur is acting as chair. Adam De Caire, who was Damerla’s top staffer as a minister, is leading operations. Sam Audrey, also a former chief of staff, is also on the team. Mady Calzavara is heading up communications.
And one more connection: A staffer is in the pod business. Ryan Gurcharn, an NDP tour staffer, is sharing the mic with former local trustee Nokha Dakroub for “Beyond the Ballot” on NewsTalk Sauga 960AM. Listen here.
— SCOOP — Wannabe Liberal candidates have also started to rev up. In Crombie territory, nuclear engineer Jawad Haroon, who we’re told was a top local organizer for the Liberal captain during her own bid, is vying for the nomination in Malton. His site is already up.Tyler Watt is running for a round two with the red banner in Nepean.
Here’s the caveat: It's still the crack of dawn. The party has yet to lay out the rules for local races or open up the application for potential candidates to get greenlit.
Also: Liberal housing critic Adil Shamji wrote to Calandra with eight demands, including ensuring a predictable source of revenue for municipalities, speeding up the pathway to become a skilled trade worker, fix the tribunal process for tenants, exploring halal mortgages and build more housing near transit.
Drake and Kendrick Bonnie and Paul beef: “Minister Calandra, I’m looking at you,” said the Liberal captain at a small municipalities’ conference in Orillia over the lost federal cash, calling it “shameful.”
—Indigenous leaders joined NDP MPP Sol Mamakwa marching on his way to the chamber. They’re taking the province and federal government to court, alleging First Nations have unequal access to justice.
— A fresh survey by Liaison Strategies shows Carolyn Parrish’s lead is upsizing in the race for Mississauga’s top job — and with under a month away, “time is running out for candidates to make an impact.”
It’s a seventeen point lead for Parrish over rival Dipika Damerla at twenty per cent and Alvin Tedjo at seventeen per cent.
