SCOOP: Run, Ana, Run
Plus: Horwath and Parrish's "uncomfortable" exchange, the Tories initiate their candidate search, Mendes and Gohel gear up, where will Bonnie run, promises, pleas and a promo; Hahn's not done and more
THE LEDE
SCOOP — Could Ana Bailão make a Liberal run in the Six?
The runner up in Toronto’s last mayoral race is privately being wooed to carry the Liberal banner in the next provincial election. That’s per a handful of sources familiar with the quiet push.
“She would be an A star candidate,” said a senior Liberal source, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss strategy. “She would certainly bring a lot of credibility to the [Bonnie] Crombie campaign.”
It’s still early but privately, Crombie and Bailão have spoken informally about a possible Liberal bid. With the threat of an early election, Crombie’s team is on the search for star, local candidates to give the Tories a run for their money. Bailão would meet the match: a described “pragmatist” with broad name recognition in Toronto, a city crucial to Crombie’s electoral path to power.
For the former councillor, deputy mayor and Toronto’s past housing advocate, however, there’s a political and geographical calculation.
— On council, Bailão represented Davenport — Marit Stiles’ provincial riding. It’s a former Liberal bastion — minus Jonah Schein’s lone term — but as the leader’s seat, Stiles’ team isn’t fazed. “Ana Bailão cannot beat Marit Stiles in Davenport,” a senior NDP source reacted.
“The challenge is that [Davenport] is Marit Stiles’ riding. Ana has had a good relationship with Marit — she wouldn’t want to run against her,” the senior Liberal explained. “She’d have to identify which seat she’d feel comfortable running in.”
— Politically, Bailão — who nearly came ahead of Olivia Chow in the mayoral race — is weighing a second run. “They will see her mayoral prospects before making a decision but I imagine Ana’s preference is to run for mayor,” a second source said. At the time, Bailão refused to speculate about her future and said she was “not thinking about three more years from now.” However, as reported in this newsletter, her team planned to “preserve everything” so she has the option to run again.
Keeping her old band intact is critical. Bailão’s mayoral team drew a mix of Liberals and Tories, including Tom Allison, Crombie’s campaign chair, Deb Hutton, chief to former premier Mike Harris and Nick Kouvalis, an advisor to Premier Ford.
“She wouldn’t want to risk alienating any of her Conservative supporters,” a source noted.
Still, there’s a ton of overlap that could help Crombie bring Bailão into the fold. Key players on her team — Allison, Ferd Longo, Taylor Deasley and Deyan Kostovski among them — went to work on Crombie’s leadership campaign.
What she’s saying: Bailão is keeping mum, writing in a brief email: “I am presently enjoying and focused on my current work and on building housing.”
With a bitter loss in Milton, dormant polling and a wave of attack ads from the Tories, bringing Bailão on board would be an urgently needed win for Crombie. “Wouldn’t surprise me,” texted a senior Liberal. “She would be a huge get for Bonnie. Several leaders have tried to recruit her over the years.”
Meanwhile: With Crombie looking to have half her slate OK’d by September, two wannabe candidates are about to get the green light.
Elizabeth Mendes and Alison Gohel will be acclaimed in Mississauga—Lakeshore and Oakville, respectively, next week. Mendes’ acclamation will be held Monday at Anapilis Hall, with Gohel, two days later, at the Borgo Antico Cucina Bar.
Mendes and Gohel were primed for smooth sailing to secure the ticket: Both — who were just shy of beating their riding’s incumbent in the last election — maintained strong local organizational muscle and a robust war chest.
In Mendes’ case, it’s a topical nomination. Crombie had zeroed in on three ridings where she could run, including Lakeshore. Now, she’s expected to carry the party’s mantle in Mississauga Center. It’s a riding held by Natalia Kusendova, whose recognition the Tories sought to boost — in a bid to curb the former mayor’s chances — by elevating her to cabinet earlier this summer.
Will Crombie lose sleep over a clash with Kusendova? Unlikely. One local organizer noted that given the district’s urban landscape — part of the downtown core with many high rise dwellers — it’s easier to enlist volunteers for canvassing while the leader is on tour across the province. To add, Kusendova’s portfolio — long term care — could give Crombie an upper hand: a number of seniors faced eviction once a home in Streetsville was sold to a private developer, making it a hot potato issue in the city.
At AMO — Mayors, councillors, bureaucrats, municipal wonks and policy gurus descended upon the capital for this week’s big municipalities summit.
Here are the highlights:
— Premier Ford: “I’m excited to announce a new online tool — developed by Invest Ontario — that will help local and international investors better connect with municipalities. Through our new ‘Partner Portal,’ municipalities will be able to upload information about commercial and industrial properties in their communities and provide companies with information about the property, including demographic trends, market analysis and First Nations treaty areas. It’s going to be a powerful resource.”
Ford wasted no time, posting another standout laptop promo — his booze map demo was a hit — on social media:
— Stiles: “So, here’s my proposal. What I, as premier, and what an NDP government, promise to deliver: A new deal for municipalities where provincial responsibilities — get ready for it — are paid for by the province. This shouldn’t be such a radical concept. Under my government, the province will pay our fair share, reversing downloads and cuts and making sure municipalities have permanent, sustainable funding you can count on.
— Crombie: “The reality is that Ontario’s municipalities need a new, fair deal... You need a sensible, modern way to fund your operations sustainably. So. we'll deliver the tools you need to deliver the programs, services and build the communities your residents demand. I am committed to doing that work with you when we form government... We'll deliver a new deal for our cities and communities. You have my word.”
In the “Bear Pit” — Cabinet ministers were in the hot seat on Thursday, participating in the annual municipal Q+A.
From tenant protection to exotic animal regulation, addressing car theft to cutting through the bureaucracy, implementing a municipal code of conduct to preserving the Greenbelt and enhancing public transit to securing municipal cash, here’s what went down:
— On tenant protection: “Will your government commit to bringing into force all regulations pertaining to Bill 97, as well as commit to a review of the Residential Tenancies Act to further protect tenants against bad faith investors and owners?”
Minister Calandra: “Once we have received, once we have got ourselves back into a balance, then we can look at, how we are going to provide those supports. But the reality is that we have to build more homes, more purpose-built rentals across the province of Ontario. That is our number one challenge.”
— On exotic animal regulation: “Ontario is the only province that does not restrict the keeping of dangerous, exotic, wild animals such as lions and tigers and pets as pets in roadside zoos, but that this is the responsibility of municipalities. When can we expect provincial regulations to address this so the burden is no longer on us?”
Solicitor General Kerzner: “We now have animal, animal welfare inspectors, throughout our province. And we have one of the toughest pieces of legislation and regulations that exist. And what we want to do — especially with the new PUPS Act — is go after, as an example, you know, dog breeders who are unethical.”
— On Graham McGregor’s new portfolio: “Can you just tell us what we can expect from your portfolio, from your ministry? What are some of the things that you’re thinking of doing to make all Ontarians safer?”
Minister McGregor: “I think, my position was created out of the realization that our government has that the status quo around criminal justice is just unacceptable... There are things we need to do a better job of at the province and there are things we need of the federal partners that are right down the street that they need to do... We need real change. That being said, day two on the job. You'll be hearing more from me soon. And don't worry, the bad guys will hear from me soon as well.”
— On red tape: “What will your government do to give municipalities the certainty we need to build more homes and reach the targets set by your government?”
Minister Harris: “It’s come up quite a bit over the deliberations we’ve had over the last couple of days and looking at ways that we can streamline the grant writing process, I think across the board, is definitely something that our ministry will be looking into... So colleagues, get ready for that. It’s going to be coming at some point.”
— On the municipal code of conduct: “I, my mayor, my councillors and our families are being targeted with no resolution but a very minute penalty for this aggressor. In the last year, we've been constantly living with death threats, incitement to violence, harassment, psychological trauma and the constant fear, emotional, personal toll and exhaustion that we did not ask for. What proof do you need to demonstrate that this legislation is required? And when you have this, when can we expect to see something?”
Minister Calandra: “I don’t think that any more evidence is required for us to better understand that we need to improve the integrity process, the code of conduct to protect, better protect our municipal employees. It’s the number one reason why we have asked the provincial integrity commissioner to come forward with a recommendation. I want to ensure that when we bring something forward, whatever we bring forward, is able to stand the first test.”
— On municipal cash: “When will your government commit to this critical discussion [of a new deal], as every other leader of a party has done so over this weekend.”
Minister Bethlenfalvy: “You have a government that certainly is willing to engage and talk frequently about the issues. We thank you for raising that issue repeatedly. We're working together. We'll continue to work with you, mayor, and with your colleagues. Not just the big city mayors, but all mayors right across this great province.”
Read the full transcript here.
SCOOP — “Uncomfortable.”
A private meeting at AMO was the scene of a tense exchange over development charges between two key GTA mayors — Andrea Horwath of Hamilton and Carolyn Parrish of Mississauga.
What happened: In a mayoral roundtable with two provincial cabinet ministers — Paul Calandra and Kinga Surma — and federal minister Sean Fraser, Horwath shared a city report on how federal funding requirements are squeezing municipalities’ budgets. To access federal housing funds, cities must freeze their development charges — a move many municipalities believe, per analyses, could result in greater losses than gains.
According to a source, the policy has an impact on nine cities across the country, but twice as many cities in Ontario, alone. When including lower tier municipalities, the total number of municipalities impacted is almost twenty fold.
That presentation sparked an “uncomfortable” moment between Parrish and Horwath.
Once Horwath wrapped up, Parrish, per one source familiar, “said she doesn’t think the rest of [the cities] needed development charges.” She publicly told Horwath, the source said, that she didn’t see it as an issue and, in what was viewed by some as an attempt to “discredit” Hamilton’s mayor, she suggested that she’d “been around for a very long time.”
“Andrea was pretty sharp in her tone with her,” the source recounted. “It wasn’t appropriate to throw a colleague under the bus when you had the federal minister here.”
The rebuttal: Parrish is refuting our sources’ account of the interaction. “Your facts are incorrect. The only minister in the room was Sean Fraser. He spoke of considering grants to assist developers with Development Charges. My 18 person Task Force spoke extensively of DCs being 30% of their costs so I liked Fraser’s proposal and said so,” she responded. “I pointed out with no development going on we are getting no DCs and are actually considering reducing ours to incentivize building starts. Reduced DCs are better than no DCs. Andrea Horwath spoke after me and was dismissive of the concept based on no guarantee the developers would pass the savings on to the home buyer. That is precisely what took place.”
“I wasn’t ‘uncomfortable’ at all,” she added. “The comments were respectful on both sides.”
Horwath did not respond to a request for comment about the exchange.
AT THE PALACE
— The House is adjourned for the summer.
— No committee meetings are scheduled next week.
— Fundraising watch: A humdrum week on the fundraising circuit is ahead. For the Tories, Daisy Wai will headline a “Summer Fun Pasta Dinner” on Sunday.
— The race to replace Todd Smith in Bay of Quinte has been called.
It was a quick call in a safe blue riding. The Tories nominated Tyler Allsopp — a local Belleville councillor — with support from his predecessor. “His deep roots in the community and experience in business will make him a powerful voice for the great people of Bay of Quinte,” Smith wrote.
Amanda Robertson — a school board trustee — will run for the NDP, expected to be nominated today. No word yet on who’ll carry the Liberal banner but the party is spinning this race as an opportunity to "tell Doug Ford enough is enough." With less than a month until voting day, a Liberal candidate is expected to be named imminently.
Timing is everything. The quick call will quash talk of a fall election, a hot rumour that’s been bubbling up. A special election isn’t a cheap operation and it’s rarely scheduled close to a general election. Spring vote, here we come?
Voting day is September 19.
Read up on Smith’s surprise decision to bid adieu.
— The Tories are gearing up for the next election, launching their nomination torpedo.
In an internal memo from party president Michael Diamond, PC MPPs and riding association presidents were given notice “of the opening of the Ontario PC Party nomination process.”
“The party asks (the) riding to strike a candidate search committee and begin the process of reviewing potential candidates for the next provincial election,” Diamond wrote, requesting that PC HQ be informed of “anyone who expresses interest to the committee.” Incumbents are asked to quickly decide whether they’ll stick around, step aside or, say, make a federal leap.
For the Tories, it’s an easy task: With 78 out of 124 seats, fewer than half of the ridings will require new candidates. Expect those planning to exit to bow out sooner rather than later, allowing a replacement to gain ground locally before the campaign is kicked into high gear.
What’s ahead: The Tories will hold a provincial nomination night — circle September on your calendar, according to one source. All incumbents eyeing another term are set to be nominated en masse.
Meanwhile: The NDP’s provincial executive council is set to meet virtually on Saturday, September 21 at 11 a.m. No word on the agenda yet, but it’s likely the council will hear an update from Marit Stiles’ election preparation committee. Here’s the who’s who.
— Over in Liberal land: Gearing up for their annual policy convention at the RBC Place in London, Crombie’s team is previewing the roster of headliners — and it’s already drawing the ire of some in the party.
Who’s up: Four key speakers are slated to speak:
British Columbia’s former premier Christy Clark (she’s privately organizing to mount a bid for the federal leadership)
Urban planner Jen Keesmaat
Former Trudeau cabinet minister Jane Philpott
Mount Sinai’s Samir Sinha
The presidents of the four teachers’ unions — Karen Littlewood, René Jansen in de Wal, Karen Brown and Gabrielle Lemieux — will speak on a panel about “robust policies that will put education back at the center of Ontario’s economic plan.”
Privately, it’s an attempt to distance from their federal cousins — their unpopularity is viewed as a hurdle for Crombie’s electoral chances. “It’s going to tick off loyal Liberals — the actual people who would attend the event,” texted one Liberal source about the decision to invite several Trudeau naysayers.
“It won’t matter if we have no money or ideas,” a second said.
That said: Could Sinha, Keesmaat or Philpott join the Liberal ticket? It’s a possibility. Word is that some of Crombie’s “star” mystery recruits could be unveiled at the AGM, with a nomination process to follow.
IN THE NEWS
— Fred Hahn says he’s staying on as CUPE’s president despite the national wing’s call for him to quit amid allegations of antisemitism.
What Hahn’s saying: “The past few days have been some of the toughest and saddest I’ve experienced during my almost three decades as an active trade unionist,” he wrote. “Trade unionists I have come to know and respect voted this week to overturn the democratic decisions of CUPE members. It is unprecedented in our union’s history and I’m worried countless CUPE members who are active in the Palestinian solidarity movement could be left more vulnerable and exposed by the precedent as they face similar situations as work.”
“There is much work to be done — and because I respect the democracy of our union, the choice of our members, I will be here to continue to fight side by side with all of you,” he added.
At issue is a video posted by Hahn of a diver with a Star of David on their arm, leaping off a diving board and morphing into a bomb that targets civilians. Hahn deleted the video — with regret for the “pain” it caused “some who viewed it” — but said that the “abhorrent actions by the state of Israel” do not represent the “Jewish humanity or identity.”
A day after this heated clash with Labour Minister David Piccini, who called him a “Jew hater,” Premier Ford called Hahn a “disgusting” human.
CUPE — despite calling for Hahn to quit over a “clear violation” of the union’s equality statement — says it's “ludicrous” to think the decision is grâce à Ford or to “throw in with those who support the genocide in Gaza.”
“Our decision to ask for the resignation was made before Minister Piccini and Premier Ford chose to attack Fred Hahn, in a way that is completely revolting and unacceptable,” the union explained. “Nothing about this decision negates Fred’s lifelong commitment to CUPE members and union activism.”
What’s next: The big question is how long Hahn can — and if he will — hang on.
WHAT WE'RE READING
— Premier Ford didn’t sugarcoat his opinion on safe injection sites: a “failed policy,” he says.
— With the province announcing the closure of supervised injection sites, Edward Keenan says we should “start by acknowledging that we’d pretty much all prefer such places didn’t need to exist.”
— But Martin Regg Cohn says fear of the quiet RCMP probe is a major factor behind Ford's plan to call an early election.
— John Michael McGrath has a question about Ottawa’s dire state: “What will the province do about it?”
— The Liberals are taking a pass on Capital Pride. Lisa MacLeod, too, will boycott the parade.
— Despite the controversy, organizers are “still expecting thousands” to participate on Sunday.
— Residents of a northern township say they were “blindsided” by a plan to move radioactive waste from an abandoned mill to facilities in their community.
— Jay Goldberg says Mr. Premier’s upsized cabinet is disrespectful to the taxpayer.
— Mental health is taking a dive among the youth.
— A First Nation equity consultant “scolded and schooled” a committee studying the future of the Sir John A. Macdonald statue.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Ana Bailão? Fred Hahn? Running for a PC nomination? Hit me up with a juicy leak or tip, item of gossip, story idea or anything else I should hear. I’ll keep you anon. We’re back in your inbox in September.
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