SCOOP — A Liberal candidate in the Flower City has a Conservative past.
Ranjit Singh Bagga — who will carry the Liberal banner in Brampton North — was running to be Pierre Poilievre’s candidate in Mississauga—Malton, just before he was picked to run up against Graham McGregor.
Singh, a golf course mogul and former mayoral candidate, had already turned in his application, according to a source familiar with the process, and was actively campaigning and registering new members.
Here's a copy of the campaign lit.
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In June, at a Canada Day event, Singh was introduced to Poilievre and his deputy as “running in Mississauga—Malton.” “He’s got a lot of memberships,” a person said.
While a nomination night has not been scheduled, it’s unclear how soon Singh abandoned his federal bid and if he still has a membership with the federal party. Yesterday, Crombie’s campaign announced him as the candidate. “As a Brampton resident and business owner, I know families are struggling — finding a doctor, finding a home, and managing rising costs,” he said. “Brampton deserves better, and I’m ready to help.”
He stood behind the Liberal leader at an announcement earlier this week.
This isn’t Singh’s first apparent political conversion either. He was once a volunteer on Harinder Takhar’s leadership bid, a source said. “It’s possible he’s a federal Conservative and provincial Liberal,” they explained. “It’s rare but not unheard of.”
“We’re an open tent party,” said a source close to Crombie’s campaign, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Singh’s nomination. “Having candidates with previous party affiliations is not new, as seen with other parties.”
“We have our core values — education, healthcare, housing and affordability — and regardless of their past affiliation, this party can be a home for them.”
The party is standing behind him. “Ranjit Singh wants to defeat Doug Ford and get the basics right for the people of Ontario — we’re happy to have him on the team,” a spokesperson said.
SCOOP — A Liberal candidate in the Flower City has a Conservative past.
Ranjit Singh Bagga — who will carry the Liberal banner in Brampton North — was running to be Pierre Poilievre’s candidate in Mississauga—Malton, just before he was picked to run up against Graham McGregor.
Singh, a golf course mogul and former mayoral candidate, had already turned in his application, according to a source familiar with the process, and was actively campaigning and registering new members.
Here's a copy of the campaign lit.
In June, at a Canada Day event, Singh was introduced to Poilievre and his deputy as “running in Mississauga—Malton.” “He’s got a lot of memberships,” a person said.
While a nomination night has not been scheduled, it’s unclear how soon Singh abandoned his federal bid and if he still has a membership with the federal party. Yesterday, Crombie’s campaign announced him as the candidate. “As a Brampton resident and business owner, I know families are struggling — finding a doctor, finding a home, and managing rising costs,” he said. “Brampton deserves better, and I’m ready to help.”
He stood behind the Liberal leader at an announcement earlier this week.
This isn’t Singh’s first apparent political conversion either. He was once a volunteer on Harinder Takhar’s leadership bid, a source said. “It’s possible he’s a federal Conservative and provincial Liberal,” they explained. “It’s rare but not unheard of.”
“We’re an open tent party,” said a source close to Crombie’s campaign, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Singh’s nomination. “Having candidates with previous party affiliations is not new, as seen with other parties.”
“We have our core values — education, healthcare, housing and affordability — and regardless of their past affiliation, this party can be a home for them.”
The party is standing behind him. “Ranjit Singh wants to defeat Doug Ford and get the basics right for the people of Ontario — we’re happy to have him on the team,” a spokesperson said.
SCOOP — A Liberal candidate in the Flower City has a Conservative past.
Ranjit Singh Bagga — who will carry the Liberal banner in Brampton North — was running to be Pierre Poilievre’s candidate in Mississauga—Malton, just before he was picked to run up against Graham McGregor.
Singh, a golf course mogul and former mayoral candidate, had already turned in his application, according to a source familiar with the process, and was actively campaigning and registering new members.
Here’s a copy of his blue campaign lit:
In June, at a Canada Day event, Singh was introduced to Poilievre and his deputy as “running in Mississauga—Malton.” “He’s got a lot of memberships,” a person said.
While a nomination night has not been scheduled, it’s unclear how soon Singh abandoned his federal bid and if he still has a membership with the federal party. Yesterday, Crombie’s campaign announced him as the candidate. “As a Brampton resident and business owner, I know families are struggling — finding a doctor, finding a home, and managing rising costs,” he said. “Brampton deserves better, and I’m ready to help.”
He stood behind the Liberal leader at an announcement earlier this week.
This isn’t Singh’s first apparent political conversion either. He was once a volunteer on Harinder Takhar’s leadership bid, a source said. “It’s possible he’s a federal Conservative and provincial Liberal,” they explained. “It’s rare but not unheard of.”
“We’re an open tent party,” said a source close to Crombie’s campaign, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Singh’s nomination. “Having candidates with previous party affiliations is not new, as seen with other parties.”
“We have our core values — education, healthcare, housing and affordability — and regardless of their past affiliation, this party can be a home for them.”
The party is standing behind him. “Ranjit Singh wants to defeat Doug Ford and get the basics right for the people of Ontario — we’re happy to have him on the team,” a spokesperson said.
{{LINE}}
A message from Mainstreet Research:
We believe strongly in the power of data to illuminate most any issue, but data is not enough. At Mainstreet Research, we have the experience and know how to harness the potential of data to deliver the insights that are critical to any business, political or public policy decision. Learn more.
{{LINE}}
SCOOP — The race in Nepean could come down to the wire.
That’s the upshot from a fresh poll by Mainstreet Research, which put the Tories ahead of the Liberals by 5 per cent, with a substantial pool of undecided voters.
It’ll be the first time the riding is without an incumbent since 2007, with Lisa MacLeod not running again. Alex Lewis, a member of the Ottawa Police Service, replaced MacLeod on the Progressive Conservative ticket, with registered nurse Tyler Watt as the Liberal candidate. Max Blair will carry the NDP banner.
In the last round, MacLeod beat Watt by a slim 6 per cent, the tightest finish she’s seen.
The survey, provided exclusively to this newsletter, was conducted on Wednesday, polling a sample of 507 adults in the riding via smart IVR.
By the numbers:
— Among all voters: Lewis earned 33 per cent support, with Watt not far behind at 28 per cent. 7 per cent say they’d vote for Blair. 27 per cent of respondents are undecided.
— Among the decided vote alone: Lewis stretches his lead to 46 per cent, with Watt at 37 per cent and Blair at 9 per cent.
“Nepean has not been held by the Liberals since 1990,” said Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Some expect Tyler Watt to win the seat after narrowly losing to Lisa MacLeod in the last election. However, he trails the Progressive Conservative newcomer by 8 points among decided and leaning voters.”
With almost a third of voters undecided, Maggi says it could be a close contest.
Read the complete report on their website later today.
We’re teaming up with Mainstreet Research to zero in on where this election could be won or lost. Each week, we’ll share fresh polling from two must-watch ridings.
{{LINE}}
Two weeks in, here’s what the leaders pitched to voters:
— Doug Ford: The Progressive Conservative leader promised to upload Ottawa’s LRT to the province, following the model of other major networks. The Tories are also promising to support the construction of “GO 2.0” in the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
In a memo to local councillors, Ottawa’s city manager said the proposal would align the capital’s transit delivery model with other major cities. “The announcement today was part of the provincial election campaign; the City of Ottawa has not entered into any formal negotiations with the province,” wrote Wendy Stephanson. “It would be premature to speculate on details at this time.”
Council will be briefed on the fiscal and legal implications of the announcement next week.
Ford pledged to remove tolls from Highway 407 East — an early campaign commitment from Team Orange — and ban congestion charges. He also promised to make the gas tax cut permanent.
Over in Vaughan, Peter Bethlenfalvy and Caroline Mulroney unveiled the plan to counter Donald Trump’s now-scrapped trade tax. It’ll include a $10 billion liquidity lifeline, giving a six-month tax break for businesses; a $3 bilion payroll relief for small businesses; upsizing the LCBO’s wholesale discount, which would support about 18,000 bars and restaurants. Have at it.
— Marit Stiles: The NDP leader pitched her strategy for a trade war, including mandating local procurement, direct income aid, a new “Buy Ontario” campaign, expediting infrastructure projects and creating a Premier’s Task Force.
Stiles is pledging to clear out homelessness encampments, unlike Ford, is ruling out the use of the notwithstanding clause to do so. Instead, she’s promising to create 60,000 new supporting housing units, upload shelter cash to the province and boost the federal-provincial housing subsidy.
On education, it’s a four-point plan.
— Bonnie Crombie: Trade war? The Liberal leader promised a new fund to gives businesses access to lower-than-market interest rates, which would reduce the cost of borrowing. Team Red will ensure stimulus spending zeroes in on hospitals, schools, roads and transit; exclude American companies from procurement opportunities; and work to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers.
Crombie is also promising to permamently double ODSP. Stiles is on board — but neither the Liberals nor the NDP made room for it in their last campaign platform.
Meanwhile, on primary care, the Liberals’ prescription would spend $3.1 billion to recruit 3,100 family doctors by 2029.
Promises made, promises tracked. Our handy interactive tool, updated daily, goes live on our site next week.
— Team Crombie is in hot water over an incorrect statistic plastered on their campaign bus. The bus says “11,000 people died waiting for surgery last year,” but the number is much smaller.
Cue more Crombus™ shade from the NDP:
— A former cabinet minister is casting doubt over Tories’ plan to connect people with family doctors.
”... The track record of the government to fund the services of family physicians” to ”retain them in primary care in the community is suspect,” wrote Merrilee Fullerton, who served as long-term care minister, in a Substack post.
— Ford’s endorsement tally grew this week, including: Clarington’s Adrian Foster, Uxbridge’s Dave Barton, Oshawa’s Dan Carter, Pickering’s Kevin Ashe. Add to that Windsor’s Drew Dilkens, St. Catherines’ Mat Siscoe, Barrie’s Alex Nuttall, Niagara Falls’ Jim Diodati and Brampton’s Patrick Brown.
Stiles taped a video with Laura Walton of the Ontario Federation of Labour.
— Nomination tracker: The Tories have locked in a complete slate of candidates. The Liberals, NDP and Greens are each inching closer to rounding out a full ticket — each say they expect to run a candidate in every riding.
It’s been a mad dash to vet and recruit.
— In Cooksville: Alvin Tedjo — who placed second to Carolyn Parrish in Mississauga’s mayoral race — is set to stump for the former mayor over the weekend, with Crombie expected to join him.
“If she needs help winning in Mississauga, she’s got a problem,” a source said. “She should not be door-knocking in Mississauga. She should be door-knocking in Clarington and Kapauskasing.”
“If she needs Tedjo to knock doors for her on her home turf, where she’s been mayor for eight years, that’s surprising.”
Dipika Damerla, who once represented the district, has also hit the trail for the Liberal leader.
As we reported, Crombie is up against Progressive Conservative candidate Silvia Gualtieri, the mother-in-law of Brampton mayor Patrick Brown.
— The Tories’ candidates are, again, steering clear of local debates.
The debate dodge is a strategy. Inside Team Ford, there’s a belief that the campaign’s biggest obstacle isn’t the opposition — it’s Ford himself. They’re already clamping down on reporters’ questions, a classic frontrunner tactic.
Save the date: The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities will host a leaders’ debate in North Bay next Friday, zeroing in on northern issues. The second leaders’ debate could take place on Family Day, we’re told, though nothing is set in stone.
— The government is warning of a scam targeting the $200-a-person rebate payment.
The government “will not proactively contact you by text, email, or phone to: ask for personal information (for example, Social Insurance Number (SIN), bank account information, health information), offer you money or a reward or sign you up for a rebate program,” read a notice on the government’s website. Check it out.
— A developer is alleging that Ryan Amato, the former aide at the centre of the Greenbelt scandal, “promised to use [his] influence at Queen’s Park to get several plots of land rezoned.”
Amato was named in the lawsuit with Shiv Raj, who is working on Ford’s campaign.
— Here’s what Doug Ford got done since he promised to Get It Done.
— A new letter, another oops moment for Bonnie Crombie.
— John Michael McGrath says Ford’s plan to upsize the province’s capacity to generate nuclear power with a “made-in-Canada” is risky.
— There’s no quick cure in sight for the doctor shortage, Brian Lilley argues.
— Martin Regg Cohn has not one but two editorials on Doug Ford’s hot-mic moment.
— Susan Delacourt, meanwhile, says Ford’s early election call is making things worse for Pierre Poilievre.
— Metrolinx forced him out of his home to make way for a new Ontario Line station. Now, Andy Takagi and Manuela Vega report, his rent has almost doubled.
— Will there be a blue wipeout in London? It’s possible.
— In border cities, Donald Trump’s tariff threat is being described as a “punch in the gut.”
{{LINE}}
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Have feedback about our new look? What are you liking? Disliking? Campaign intel or war room gossip? Drop a line and I’ll keep you anon, just like those mysterious sources you’re still curious about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Have a brand or message? Looking to grab the attention of the province’s top and most powerful political players during the election? Ad rates are available upon request.
SCOOP — A Liberal candidate in the Flower City has a Conservative past.
Ranjit Singh Bagga — who will carry the Liberal banner in Brampton North — was running to be Pierre Poilievre’s candidate in Mississauga—Malton, just before he was picked to run up against Graham McGregor.
Singh, a golf course mogul and former mayoral candidate, had already turned in his application, according to a source familiar with the process, and was actively campaigning and registering new members.
Here’s a copy of his blue campaign lit:
In June, at a Canada Day event, Singh was introduced to Poilievre and his deputy as “running in Mississauga—Malton.” “He’s got a lot of memberships,” a person said.
While a nomination night has not been scheduled, it’s unclear how soon Singh abandoned his federal bid and if he still has a membership with the federal party. Yesterday, Crombie’s campaign announced him as the candidate. “As a Brampton resident and business owner, I know families are struggling — finding a doctor, finding a home, and managing rising costs,” he said. “Brampton deserves better, and I’m ready to help.”
He stood behind the Liberal leader at an announcement earlier this week.
This isn’t Singh’s first apparent political conversion either. He was once a volunteer on Harinder Takhar’s leadership bid, a source said. “It’s possible he’s a federal Conservative and provincial Liberal,” they explained. “It’s rare but not unheard of.”
“We’re an open tent party,” said a source close to Crombie’s campaign, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Singh’s nomination. “Having candidates with previous party affiliations is not new, as seen with other parties.”
“We have our core values — education, healthcare, housing and affordability — and regardless of their past affiliation, this party can be a home for them.”
The party is standing behind him. “Ranjit Singh wants to defeat Doug Ford and get the basics right for the people of Ontario — we’re happy to have him on the team,” a spokesperson said.
{{LINE}}
A message from Mainstreet Research:
We believe strongly in the power of data to illuminate most any issue, but data is not enough. At Mainstreet Research, we have the experience and know how to harness the potential of data to deliver the insights that are critical to any business, political or public policy decision. Learn more.
{{LINE}}
SCOOP — The race in Nepean could come down to the wire.
That’s the upshot from a fresh poll by Mainstreet Research, which put the Tories ahead of the Liberals by 5 per cent, with a substantial pool of undecided voters.
It’ll be the first time the riding is without an incumbent since 2007, with Lisa MacLeod not running again. Alex Lewis, a member of the Ottawa Police Service, replaced MacLeod on the Progressive Conservative ticket, with registered nurse Tyler Watt as the Liberal candidate. Max Blair will carry the NDP banner.
In the last round, MacLeod beat Watt by a slim 6 per cent, the tightest finish she’s seen.
The survey, provided exclusively to this newsletter, was conducted on Wednesday, polling a sample of 507 adults in the riding via smart IVR.
By the numbers:
— Among all voters: Lewis earned 33 per cent support, with Watt not far behind at 28 per cent. 7 per cent say they’d vote for Blair. 27 per cent of respondents are undecided.
— Among the decided vote alone: Lewis stretches his lead to 46 per cent, with Watt at 37 per cent and Blair at 9 per cent.
“Nepean has not been held by the Liberals since 1990,” said Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Some expect Tyler Watt to win the seat after narrowly losing to Lisa MacLeod in the last election. However, he trails the Progressive Conservative newcomer by 8 points among decided and leaning voters.”
With almost a third of voters undecided, Maggi says it could be a close contest.
Read the complete report on their website later today.
We’re teaming up with Mainstreet Research to zero in on where this election could be won or lost. Each week, we’ll share fresh polling from two must-watch ridings.
{{LINE}}
Two weeks in, here’s what the leaders pitched to voters:
— Doug Ford: The Progressive Conservative leader promised to upload Ottawa’s LRT to the province, following the model of other major networks. The Tories are also promising to support the construction of “GO 2.0” in the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
In a memo to local councillors, Ottawa’s city manager said the proposal would align the capital’s transit delivery model with other major cities. “The announcement today was part of the provincial election campaign; the City of Ottawa has not entered into any formal negotiations with the province,” wrote Wendy Stephanson. “It would be premature to speculate on details at this time.”
Council will be briefed on the fiscal and legal implications of the announcement next week.
Ford pledged to remove tolls from Highway 407 East — an early campaign commitment from Team Orange — and ban congestion charges. He also promised to make the gas tax cut permanent.
Over in Vaughan, Peter Bethlenfalvy and Caroline Mulroney unveiled the plan to counter Donald Trump’s now-scrapped trade tax. It’ll include a $10 billion liquidity lifeline, giving a six-month tax break for businesses; a $3 bilion payroll relief for small businesses; upsizing the LCBO’s wholesale discount, which would support about 18,000 bars and restaurants. Have at it.
— Marit Stiles: The NDP leader pitched her strategy for a trade war, including mandating local procurement, direct income aid, a new “Buy Ontario” campaign, expediting infrastructure projects and creating a Premier’s Task Force.
Stiles is pledging to clear out homelessness encampments, unlike Ford, is ruling out the use of the notwithstanding clause to do so. Instead, she’s promising to create 60,000 new supporting housing units, upload shelter cash to the province and boost the federal-provincial housing subsidy.
On education, it’s a four-point plan.
— Bonnie Crombie: Trade war? The Liberal leader promised a new fund to gives businesses access to lower-than-market interest rates, which would reduce the cost of borrowing. Team Red will ensure stimulus spending zeroes in on hospitals, schools, roads and transit; exclude American companies from procurement opportunities; and work to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers.
Crombie is also promising to permamently double ODSP. Stiles is on board — but neither the Liberals nor the NDP made room for it in their last campaign platform.
Meanwhile, on primary care, the Liberals’ prescription would spend $3.1 billion to recruit 3,100 family doctors by 2029.
Promises made, promises tracked. Our handy interactive tool, updated daily, goes live on our site next week.
— Team Crombie is in hot water over an incorrect statistic plastered on their campaign bus. The bus says “11,000 people died waiting for surgery last year,” but the number is much smaller.
Cue more Crombus™ shade from the NDP:
— A former cabinet minister is casting doubt over Tories’ plan to connect people with family doctors.
”... The track record of the government to fund the services of family physicians” to ”retain them in primary care in the community is suspect,” wrote Merrilee Fullerton, who served as long-term care minister, in a Substack post.
— Ford’s endorsement tally grew this week, including: Clarington’s Adrian Foster, Uxbridge’s Dave Barton, Oshawa’s Dan Carter, Pickering’s Kevin Ashe. Add to that Windsor’s Drew Dilkens, St. Catherines’ Mat Siscoe, Barrie’s Alex Nuttall, Niagara Falls’ Jim Diodati and Brampton’s Patrick Brown.
Stiles taped a video with Laura Walton of the Ontario Federation of Labour.
— Nomination tracker: The Tories have locked in a complete slate of candidates. The Liberals, NDP and Greens are each inching closer to rounding out a full ticket — each say they expect to run a candidate in every riding.
It’s been a mad dash to vet and recruit.
— In Cooksville: Alvin Tedjo — who placed second to Carolyn Parrish in Mississauga’s mayoral race — is set to stump for the former mayor over the weekend, with Crombie expected to join him.
“If she needs help winning in Mississauga, she’s got a problem,” a source said. “She should not be door-knocking in Mississauga. She should be door-knocking in Clarington and Kapauskasing.”
“If she needs Tedjo to knock doors for her on her home turf, where she’s been mayor for eight years, that’s surprising.”
Dipika Damerla, who once represented the district, has also hit the trail for the Liberal leader.
As we reported, Crombie is up against Progressive Conservative candidate Silvia Gualtieri, the mother-in-law of Brampton mayor Patrick Brown.
— The Tories’ candidates are, again, steering clear of local debates.
The debate dodge is a strategy. Inside Team Ford, there’s a belief that the campaign’s biggest obstacle isn’t the opposition — it’s Ford himself. They’re already clamping down on reporters’ questions, a classic frontrunner tactic.
Save the date: The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities will host a leaders’ debate in North Bay next Friday, zeroing in on northern issues. The second leaders’ debate could take place on Family Day, we’re told, though nothing is set in stone.
— The government is warning of a scam targeting the $200-a-person rebate payment.
The government “will not proactively contact you by text, email, or phone to: ask for personal information (for example, Social Insurance Number (SIN), bank account information, health information), offer you money or a reward or sign you up for a rebate program,” read a notice on the government’s website. Check it out.
— A developer is alleging that Ryan Amato, the former aide at the centre of the Greenbelt scandal, “promised to use [his] influence at Queen’s Park to get several plots of land rezoned.”
Amato was named in the lawsuit with Shiv Raj, who is working on Ford’s campaign.
— Here’s what Doug Ford got done since he promised to Get It Done.
— A new letter, another oops moment for Bonnie Crombie.
— John Michael McGrath says Ford’s plan to upsize the province’s capacity to generate nuclear power with a “made-in-Canada” is risky.
— There’s no quick cure in sight for the doctor shortage, Brian Lilley argues.
— Martin Regg Cohn has not one but two editorials on Doug Ford’s hot-mic moment.
— Susan Delacourt, meanwhile, says Ford’s early election call is making things worse for Pierre Poilievre.
— Metrolinx forced him out of his home to make way for a new Ontario Line station. Now, Andy Takagi and Manuela Vega report, his rent has almost doubled.
— Will there be a blue wipeout in London? It’s possible.
— In border cities, Donald Trump’s tariff threat is being described as a “punch in the gut.”
{{LINE}}
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Have feedback about our new look? What are you liking? Disliking? Campaign intel or war room gossip? Drop a line and I’ll keep you anon, just like those mysterious sources you’re still curious about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Have a brand or message? Looking to grab the attention of the province’s top and most powerful political players during the election? Ad rates are available upon request.
SCOOP — A Liberal candidate in the Flower City has a Conservative past.
Ranjit Singh Bagga — who will carry the Liberal banner in Brampton North — was running to be Pierre Poilievre’s candidate in Mississauga—Malton, just before he was picked to run up against Graham McGregor.
Singh, a golf course mogul and former mayoral candidate, had already turned in his application, according to a source familiar with the process, and was actively campaigning and registering new members.
Here’s a copy of his blue campaign lit:
In June, at a Canada Day event, Singh was introduced to Poilievre and his deputy as “running in Mississauga—Malton.” “He’s got a lot of memberships,” a person said.
While a nomination night has not been scheduled, it’s unclear how soon Singh abandoned his federal bid and if he still has a membership with the federal party. Yesterday, Crombie’s campaign announced him as the candidate. “As a Brampton resident and business owner, I know families are struggling — finding a doctor, finding a home, and managing rising costs,” he said. “Brampton deserves better, and I’m ready to help.”
He stood behind the Liberal leader at an announcement earlier this week.
This isn’t Singh’s first apparent political conversion either. He was once a volunteer on Harinder Takhar’s leadership bid, a source said. “It’s possible he’s a federal Conservative and provincial Liberal,” they explained. “It’s rare but not unheard of.”
“We’re an open tent party,” said a source close to Crombie’s campaign, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Singh’s nomination. “Having candidates with previous party affiliations is not new, as seen with other parties.”
“We have our core values — education, healthcare, housing and affordability — and regardless of their past affiliation, this party can be a home for them.”
The party is standing behind him. “Ranjit Singh wants to defeat Doug Ford and get the basics right for the people of Ontario — we’re happy to have him on the team,” a spokesperson said.
{{LINE}}
A message from Mainstreet Research:
We believe strongly in the power of data to illuminate most any issue, but data is not enough. At Mainstreet Research, we have the experience and know how to harness the potential of data to deliver the insights that are critical to any business, political or public policy decision. Learn more.
{{LINE}}
SCOOP — The race in Nepean could come down to the wire.
That’s the upshot from a fresh poll by Mainstreet Research, which put the Tories ahead of the Liberals by 5 per cent, with a substantial pool of undecided voters.
It’ll be the first time the riding is without an incumbent since 2007, with Lisa MacLeod not running again. Alex Lewis, a member of the Ottawa Police Service, replaced MacLeod on the Progressive Conservative ticket, with registered nurse Tyler Watt as the Liberal candidate. Max Blair will carry the NDP banner.
In the last round, MacLeod beat Watt by a slim 6 per cent, the tightest finish she’s seen.
The survey, provided exclusively to this newsletter, was conducted on Wednesday, polling a sample of 507 adults in the riding via smart IVR.
By the numbers:
— Among all voters: Lewis earned 33 per cent support, with Watt not far behind at 28 per cent. 7 per cent say they’d vote for Blair. 27 per cent of respondents are undecided.
— Among the decided vote alone: Lewis stretches his lead to 46 per cent, with Watt at 37 per cent and Blair at 9 per cent.
“Nepean has not been held by the Liberals since 1990,” said Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Some expect Tyler Watt to win the seat after narrowly losing to Lisa MacLeod in the last election. However, he trails the Progressive Conservative newcomer by 8 points among decided and leaning voters.”
With almost a third of voters undecided, Maggi says it could be a close contest.
Read the complete report on their website later today.
We’re teaming up with Mainstreet Research to zero in on where this election could be won or lost. Each week, we’ll share fresh polling from two must-watch ridings.
{{LINE}}
Two weeks in, here’s what the leaders pitched to voters:
— Doug Ford: The Progressive Conservative leader promised to upload Ottawa’s LRT to the province, following the model of other major networks. The Tories are also promising to support the construction of “GO 2.0” in the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
In a memo to local councillors, Ottawa’s city manager said the proposal would align the capital’s transit delivery model with other major cities. “The announcement today was part of the provincial election campaign; the City of Ottawa has not entered into any formal negotiations with the province,” wrote Wendy Stephanson. “It would be premature to speculate on details at this time.”
Council will be briefed on the fiscal and legal implications of the announcement next week.
Ford pledged to remove tolls from Highway 407 East — an early campaign commitment from Team Orange — and ban congestion charges. He also promised to make the gas tax cut permanent.
Over in Vaughan, Peter Bethlenfalvy and Caroline Mulroney unveiled the plan to counter Donald Trump’s now-scrapped trade tax. It’ll include a $10 billion liquidity lifeline, giving a six-month tax break for businesses; a $3 bilion payroll relief for small businesses; upsizing the LCBO’s wholesale discount, which would support about 18,000 bars and restaurants. Have at it.
— Marit Stiles: The NDP leader pitched her strategy for a trade war, including mandating local procurement, direct income aid, a new “Buy Ontario” campaign, expediting infrastructure projects and creating a Premier’s Task Force.
Stiles is pledging to clear out homelessness encampments, unlike Ford, is ruling out the use of the notwithstanding clause to do so. Instead, she’s promising to create 60,000 new supporting housing units, upload shelter cash to the province and boost the federal-provincial housing subsidy.
On education, it’s a four-point plan.
— Bonnie Crombie: Trade war? The Liberal leader promised a new fund to gives businesses access to lower-than-market interest rates, which would reduce the cost of borrowing. Team Red will ensure stimulus spending zeroes in on hospitals, schools, roads and transit; exclude American companies from procurement opportunities; and work to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers.
Crombie is also promising to permamently double ODSP. Stiles is on board — but neither the Liberals nor the NDP made room for it in their last campaign platform.
Meanwhile, on primary care, the Liberals’ prescription would spend $3.1 billion to recruit 3,100 family doctors by 2029.
Promises made, promises tracked. Our handy interactive tool, updated daily, goes live on our site next week.
— Team Crombie is in hot water over an incorrect statistic plastered on their campaign bus. The bus says “11,000 people died waiting for surgery last year,” but the number is much smaller.
Cue more Crombus™ shade from the NDP:
— A former cabinet minister is casting doubt over Tories’ plan to connect people with family doctors.
”... The track record of the government to fund the services of family physicians” to ”retain them in primary care in the community is suspect,” wrote Merrilee Fullerton, who served as long-term care minister, in a Substack post.
— Ford’s endorsement tally grew this week, including: Clarington’s Adrian Foster, Uxbridge’s Dave Barton, Oshawa’s Dan Carter, Pickering’s Kevin Ashe. Add to that Windsor’s Drew Dilkens, St. Catherines’ Mat Siscoe, Barrie’s Alex Nuttall, Niagara Falls’ Jim Diodati and Brampton’s Patrick Brown.
Stiles taped a video with Laura Walton of the Ontario Federation of Labour.
— Nomination tracker: The Tories have locked in a complete slate of candidates. The Liberals, NDP and Greens are each inching closer to rounding out a full ticket — each say they expect to run a candidate in every riding.
It’s been a mad dash to vet and recruit.
— In Cooksville: Alvin Tedjo — who placed second to Carolyn Parrish in Mississauga’s mayoral race — is set to stump for the former mayor over the weekend, with Crombie expected to join him.
“If she needs help winning in Mississauga, she’s got a problem,” a source said. “She should not be door-knocking in Mississauga. She should be door-knocking in Clarington and Kapauskasing.”
“If she needs Tedjo to knock doors for her on her home turf, where she’s been mayor for eight years, that’s surprising.”
Dipika Damerla, who once represented the district, has also hit the trail for the Liberal leader.
As we reported, Crombie is up against Progressive Conservative candidate Silvia Gualtieri, the mother-in-law of Brampton mayor Patrick Brown.
— The Tories’ candidates are, again, steering clear of local debates.
The debate dodge is a strategy. Inside Team Ford, there’s a belief that the campaign’s biggest obstacle isn’t the opposition — it’s Ford himself. They’re already clamping down on reporters’ questions, a classic frontrunner tactic.
Save the date: The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities will host a leaders’ debate in North Bay next Friday, zeroing in on northern issues. The second leaders’ debate could take place on Family Day, we’re told, though nothing is set in stone.
— The government is warning of a scam targeting the $200-a-person rebate payment.
The government “will not proactively contact you by text, email, or phone to: ask for personal information (for example, Social Insurance Number (SIN), bank account information, health information), offer you money or a reward or sign you up for a rebate program,” read a notice on the government’s website. Check it out.
— A developer is alleging that Ryan Amato, the former aide at the centre of the Greenbelt scandal, “promised to use [his] influence at Queen’s Park to get several plots of land rezoned.”
Amato was named in the lawsuit with Shiv Raj, who is working on Ford’s campaign.
— Here’s what Doug Ford got done since he promised to Get It Done.
— A new letter, another oops moment for Bonnie Crombie.
— John Michael McGrath says Ford’s plan to upsize the province’s capacity to generate nuclear power with a “made-in-Canada” is risky.
— There’s no quick cure in sight for the doctor shortage, Brian Lilley argues.
— Martin Regg Cohn has not one but two editorials on Doug Ford’s hot-mic moment.
— Susan Delacourt, meanwhile, says Ford’s early election call is making things worse for Pierre Poilievre.
— Metrolinx forced him out of his home to make way for a new Ontario Line station. Now, Andy Takagi and Manuela Vega report, his rent has almost doubled.
— Will there be a blue wipeout in London? It’s possible.
— In border cities, Donald Trump’s tariff threat is being described as a “punch in the gut.”
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Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Have feedback about our new look? What are you liking? Disliking? Campaign intel or war room gossip? Drop a line and I’ll keep you anon, just like those mysterious sources you’re still curious about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
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SCOOP — A Liberal candidate in the Flower City has a Conservative past.
Ranjit Singh Bagga — who will carry the Liberal banner in Brampton North — was running to be Pierre Poilievre’s candidate in Mississauga—Malton, just before he was picked to run up against Graham McGregor.
Singh, a golf course mogul and former mayoral candidate, had already turned in his application, according to a source familiar with the process, and was actively campaigning and registering new members.
Here’s a copy of his blue campaign lit:
In June, at a Canada Day event, Singh was introduced to Poilievre and his deputy as “running in Mississauga—Malton.” “He’s got a lot of memberships,” a person said.
While a nomination night has not been scheduled, it’s unclear how soon Singh abandoned his federal bid and if he still has a membership with the federal party. Yesterday, Crombie’s campaign announced him as the candidate. “As a Brampton resident and business owner, I know families are struggling — finding a doctor, finding a home, and managing rising costs,” he said. “Brampton deserves better, and I’m ready to help.”
He stood behind the Liberal leader at an announcement earlier this week.
This isn’t Singh’s first apparent political conversion either. He was once a volunteer on Harinder Takhar’s leadership bid, a source said. “It’s possible he’s a federal Conservative and provincial Liberal,” they explained. “It’s rare but not unheard of.”
“We’re an open tent party,” said a source close to Crombie’s campaign, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Singh’s nomination. “Having candidates with previous party affiliations is not new, as seen with other parties.”
“We have our core values — education, healthcare, housing and affordability — and regardless of their past affiliation, this party can be a home for them.”
The party is standing behind him. “Ranjit Singh wants to defeat Doug Ford and get the basics right for the people of Ontario — we’re happy to have him on the team,” a spokesperson said.
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A message from Mainstreet Research:
We believe strongly in the power of data to illuminate most any issue, but data is not enough. At Mainstreet Research, we have the experience and know how to harness the potential of data to deliver the insights that are critical to any business, political or public policy decision. Learn more.
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SCOOP — The race in Nepean could come down to the wire.
That’s the upshot from a fresh poll by Mainstreet Research, which put the Tories ahead of the Liberals by 5 per cent, with a substantial pool of undecided voters.
It’ll be the first time the riding is without an incumbent since 2007, with Lisa MacLeod not running again. Alex Lewis, a member of the Ottawa Police Service, replaced MacLeod on the Progressive Conservative ticket, with registered nurse Tyler Watt as the Liberal candidate. Max Blair will carry the NDP banner.
In the last round, MacLeod beat Watt by a slim 6 per cent, the tightest finish she’s seen.
The survey, provided exclusively to this newsletter, was conducted on Wednesday, polling a sample of 507 adults in the riding via smart IVR.
By the numbers:
— Among all voters: Lewis earned 33 per cent support, with Watt not far behind at 28 per cent. 7 per cent say they’d vote for Blair. 27 per cent of respondents are undecided.
— Among the decided vote alone: Lewis stretches his lead to 46 per cent, with Watt at 37 per cent and Blair at 9 per cent.
“Nepean has not been held by the Liberals since 1990,” said Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Some expect Tyler Watt to win the seat after narrowly losing to Lisa MacLeod in the last election. However, he trails the Progressive Conservative newcomer by 8 points among decided and leaning voters.”
With almost a third of voters undecided, Maggi says it could be a close contest.
Read the complete report on their website later today.
We’re teaming up with Mainstreet Research to zero in on where this election could be won or lost. Each week, we’ll share fresh polling from two must-watch ridings.
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Two weeks in, here’s what the leaders pitched to voters:
— Doug Ford: The Progressive Conservative leader promised to upload Ottawa’s LRT to the province, following the model of other major networks. The Tories are also promising to support the construction of “GO 2.0” in the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
In a memo to local councillors, Ottawa’s city manager said the proposal would align the capital’s transit delivery model with other major cities. “The announcement today was part of the provincial election campaign; the City of Ottawa has not entered into any formal negotiations with the province,” wrote Wendy Stephanson. “It would be premature to speculate on details at this time.”
Council will be briefed on the fiscal and legal implications of the announcement next week.
Ford pledged to remove tolls from Highway 407 East — an early campaign commitment from Team Orange — and ban congestion charges. He also promised to make the gas tax cut permanent.
Over in Vaughan, Peter Bethlenfalvy and Caroline Mulroney unveiled the plan to counter Donald Trump’s now-scrapped trade tax. It’ll include a $10 billion liquidity lifeline, giving a six-month tax break for businesses; a $3 bilion payroll relief for small businesses; upsizing the LCBO’s wholesale discount, which would support about 18,000 bars and restaurants. Have at it.
— Marit Stiles: The NDP leader pitched her strategy for a trade war, including mandating local procurement, direct income aid, a new “Buy Ontario” campaign, expediting infrastructure projects and creating a Premier’s Task Force.
Stiles is pledging to clear out homelessness encampments, unlike Ford, is ruling out the use of the notwithstanding clause to do so. Instead, she’s promising to create 60,000 new supporting housing units, upload shelter cash to the province and boost the federal-provincial housing subsidy.
On education, it’s a four-point plan.
— Bonnie Crombie: Trade war? The Liberal leader promised a new fund to gives businesses access to lower-than-market interest rates, which would reduce the cost of borrowing. Team Red will ensure stimulus spending zeroes in on hospitals, schools, roads and transit; exclude American companies from procurement opportunities; and work to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers.
Crombie is also promising to permamently double ODSP. Stiles is on board — but neither the Liberals nor the NDP made room for it in their last campaign platform.
Meanwhile, on primary care, the Liberals’ prescription would spend $3.1 billion to recruit 3,100 family doctors by 2029.
Promises made, promises tracked. Our handy interactive tool, updated daily, goes live on our site next week.
— Team Crombie is in hot water over an incorrect statistic plastered on their campaign bus. The bus says “11,000 people died waiting for surgery last year,” but the number is much smaller.
Cue more Crombus™ shade from the NDP:
— A former cabinet minister is casting doubt over Tories’ plan to connect people with family doctors.
”... The track record of the government to fund the services of family physicians” to ”retain them in primary care in the community is suspect,” wrote Merrilee Fullerton, who served as long-term care minister, in a Substack post.
— Ford’s endorsement tally grew this week, including: Clarington’s Adrian Foster, Uxbridge’s Dave Barton, Oshawa’s Dan Carter, Pickering’s Kevin Ashe. Add to that Windsor’s Drew Dilkens, St. Catherines’ Mat Siscoe, Barrie’s Alex Nuttall, Niagara Falls’ Jim Diodati and Brampton’s Patrick Brown.
Stiles taped a video with Laura Walton of the Ontario Federation of Labour.
— Nomination tracker: The Tories have locked in a complete slate of candidates. The Liberals, NDP and Greens are each inching closer to rounding out a full ticket — each say they expect to run a candidate in every riding.
It’s been a mad dash to vet and recruit.
— In Cooksville: Alvin Tedjo — who placed second to Carolyn Parrish in Mississauga’s mayoral race — is set to stump for the former mayor over the weekend, with Crombie expected to join him.
“If she needs help winning in Mississauga, she’s got a problem,” a source said. “She should not be door-knocking in Mississauga. She should be door-knocking in Clarington and Kapauskasing.”
“If she needs Tedjo to knock doors for her on her home turf, where she’s been mayor for eight years, that’s surprising.”
Dipika Damerla, who once represented the district, has also hit the trail for the Liberal leader.
As we reported, Crombie is up against Progressive Conservative candidate Silvia Gualtieri, the mother-in-law of Brampton mayor Patrick Brown.
— The Tories’ candidates are, again, steering clear of local debates.
The debate dodge is a strategy. Inside Team Ford, there’s a belief that the campaign’s biggest obstacle isn’t the opposition — it’s Ford himself. They’re already clamping down on reporters’ questions, a classic frontrunner tactic.
Save the date: The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities will host a leaders’ debate in North Bay next Friday, zeroing in on northern issues. The second leaders’ debate could take place on Family Day, we’re told, though nothing is set in stone.
— The government is warning of a scam targeting the $200-a-person rebate payment.
The government “will not proactively contact you by text, email, or phone to: ask for personal information (for example, Social Insurance Number (SIN), bank account information, health information), offer you money or a reward or sign you up for a rebate program,” read a notice on the government’s website. Check it out.
— A developer is alleging that Ryan Amato, the former aide at the centre of the Greenbelt scandal, “promised to use [his] influence at Queen’s Park to get several plots of land rezoned.”
Amato was named in the lawsuit with Shiv Raj, who is working on Ford’s campaign.
— Here’s what Doug Ford got done since he promised to Get It Done.
— A new letter, another oops moment for Bonnie Crombie.
— John Michael McGrath says Ford’s plan to upsize the province’s capacity to generate nuclear power with a “made-in-Canada” is risky.
— There’s no quick cure in sight for the doctor shortage, Brian Lilley argues.
— Martin Regg Cohn has not one but two editorials on Doug Ford’s hot-mic moment.
— Susan Delacourt, meanwhile, says Ford’s early election call is making things worse for Pierre Poilievre.
— Metrolinx forced him out of his home to make way for a new Ontario Line station. Now, Andy Takagi and Manuela Vega report, his rent has almost doubled.
— Will there be a blue wipeout in London? It’s possible.
— In border cities, Donald Trump’s tariff threat is being described as a “punch in the gut.”
{{LINE}}
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Have feedback about our new look? What are you liking? Disliking? Campaign intel or war room gossip? Drop a line and I’ll keep you anon, just like those mysterious sources you’re still curious about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Have a brand or message? Looking to grab the attention of the province’s top and most powerful political players during the election? Ad rates are available upon request.