Presidential jitters hit Queen’s Park
A survey says it’s down to the wire, protectionism panic, the leaders’ takes, the “Trumpism” card, on the stump in Michigan and a guide to tonight’s watch parties
At Queen’s Park, tonight’s presidential race south of the border — whether it’ll be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to come out on top — is eating up all the oxygen.
From parity in polling to trepidation over protectionism, the leaders’ takes and the “Trumpism” brush, a stop on the stump and watch parties, let’s dig in.
THE LEDE
— Brace for an “unpredictable and close” race, with dead heat nationally and in the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgian, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
A fresh poll, conducted by Mainstreet Research, has Harris up by one point.
“Polls released over the weekend show a more positive trend for Kamala Harris, although the difference is not outside the margin of error of most polls,” said Mainstreet’s Quito Maggi. “If the latest polls, including those in battleground states, are accurate, Harris now has the greater probability of winning today.”
Maggi says, according to conventional wisdom, Harris must win four or five per cent of the popular vote to win the electoral college — a system where the president and vice president are indirectly elected through state electors. “Trump has redrawn the electoral map and gained ground in traditionally blue states like California, New York and many others, which makes the correlation between the national vote and the electoral college outcome quite different than in past elections,” he explained.
In the swing states, Maggi says “early voting indicators in some of these states point to a Democratic advantage, and in others to a Republican advantage, making the outcome as unpredictable as any election we’ve seen.”
But with Trump’s base focused on the early vote, Maggi warned that it could lead the Republican vote to “cannibalize” today “as the total pool of accessible Republican voters is not unlimited.”
What to watch: “While the race is unpredictable, the unique nature of it may make the outcome easier to predict based on votes reported on Tuesday alone,” Maggi said. “If Republicans repeat their significant leads from the last race on election day votes only, which will be the first to report, then a Trump win is more likely. However, if, the leads for Republicans shrink, this could point to a Harris win early on election night.”
— Whether it’s Harris or Trump in the White House, the Ford government is bracing.
“Regardless of the outcome of this week’s election, we stand ready to work with our partners south of the border,” Premier Doug Ford said in a statement.
The Republican nominee — poised to take on a protectionist approach, which Ford rallied his provincial peers to resist over the summer — has promised to levy ten per cent on imports and services, while Harris is expected to stick with Joe Biden’s trade policies.
Both, however, are expected to reignite talk over the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. “Many who voted for [the USMCA] conditioned their support on a review process, which, as president, I will use,” Harris said of her vote, as one of ten senators opposed.
“Above all, we must avoid falling into a ‘Buy Canada’ or ‘Buy America’ mindset that would jeopardize our existing trading relationship,” Ford said, encouraging “a ‘Buy Can-Am’ mindset that creates new jobs and opportunities for workers and businesses on both sides of the border.”
For the United States’ third largest trade partner, it’s an indispensable relationship — and the province has already doubled down by inking individual deals with states to “promote increased trade.”
Behind the scenes: Whoever the winner is, Mr. Premier is banking on “strong personal relationships with governors and a concerted campaign over months to keep ties alive.” The province’s representative in Washington said, in a role “about people,” you “could not have a better closer” than Ford. The government has tapped a familiar face to lead the advocacy push and has hired a PR shop — Capitol Council — to lobby on their behalf until the transition of power is complete.
But politically, some are skeptical. While Ford — who once was an ardent Trump loyalist with “not a doubt in [his] mind” that he’d vote for him — says he’ll work with anyone “no matter the outcome,” NDP leader Marit Stiles said Ford has to “put ideology aside.”
“I’d hope that he’d be willing to work with the vice president,” she added.
— Stiles — watching with “a lot of trepidation” and “a lot of concern” — says she’s concerned about the Republican nominee’s possible win.
“I’m worried for all of us if Trump wins,” she said. “I’m worried for Canada because I think it’ll have significant impact on trade. I’m worried for the people of the United States — many of my own family live there. I’m very concerned about the divisiveness and the very hateful rhetoric that is pervasive down there.”
— Bonnie HQ threw shade at Ford on X: “He’s all in on Donald Trump and MAGA.”
While Bonnie Crombie hasn’t chimed in on the race, a release — subject line: “Does Doug Ford still ❤️ Trump?” — said voters “deserve to know” if Ford “still has admiration” for the “divisive politics we’ve seen south of the border” and asked if Ford thought it’s “appropriate for convicted felons to run,” with his government under probe by the RCMP into the controversial Greenbelt land swap.
“Wow. You’re really running out of things to say to Ontarians,” commented one cabinet minister.
“I really dislike Doug Ford. This post makes me dislike the Liberal Party,” another user said.
“Take this garbage down,” another wrote. “We surely can go after Doug Ford on his policies, this post does nothing but give Ford's voters more fuel.”
“I don’t think this is a bad tactic,” a fourth added.
— A trio from Stiles’ team were out in Michigan, pulling the vote for Harris over the weekend.
Alesha Cabral, a constituency assistant to Chris Glover; Sam Hamilton, on Stiles’ digital team; Erica Wallis, a party spokesperson — the one usually on the receiving end of my frantic, eleventh hour emails; and their friend Paige hit the hustings in Roseville, only eight miles away from where Eminem grew up.
“Energy there is so positive for Harris and Walz. We were out to get the vote to likely supporters — people at the door were really friendly and just wanted to chat,” Hamilton said.
“The campaign was so happy to see three Canadians — and even Mark Ruffalo was giving us Canadian treatment.”
WATCH PARTIES
Planning to watch tonight’s results roll in with a crowd? Here’s where to be seen:
— 6:30 p.m.: The Liberal riding association in Spadina—Fort York is hosting at Firkin on Harbour. There’ll be some light bites and a cash bar.
— 7 p.m.: Stephen Blais is hosting. Hors d’oeuvres, charcuterie and beverages will be served — but a ticket is not cheap.
— 7:30 p.m.: Aurora Strategy will host “senior political players, labour leaders and executives from across the political spectrum” at the University Club, a hop, skip and a block away from the United States consulate.
Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie and Ben Mulroney will be there.
— 7:30 p.m. to 9 p.m.: NDP MPP Jill Andrew is hosting at Gatherings Resto Bar at Yonge and St. Clair. A group of staff and caucus members are expected to show up.
— 7:30 p.m. to 10 p.m.: Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston’s Liberal riding association will gather at the St. Louis Bar and Grill in Perth. Rob Rainer, running provincially, and Michelle Foxton, running federally, will attend.
— 7:30 p.m. to 11 p.m.: Ottawa Centre’s Liberal riding association is hosting at Clocktower Brew Pub. Included with your ticket is a drink and some light bites — but if you’re a local Future Fund member, it’s free.
— 8 p.m.: Oxford’s Liberal riding association will gather at Crabby Joe’s in Woodstock.
Who’s throwing the best bash? Another we should list? Reach out — and send us your photos.
WHAT WE'RE READING
— More on the fear of protectionist peril.
— If you’re a Windsorite, canvassers might’ve knocked on your door as they hunt for eligible voters.
— Expect radio silence from the federal government until the last tally is in.
— Here’s Jamie Watt on why Trump will win “decisively.”
— Heather Mallick’s big question: “What lies ahead if Kamala Harris wins?”
— In an election of malice and bile, this isn’t the end of days, whatever happens, Rosie DiManno says.
— Despite it all, the United States’ ambassador to Canada says democracy will “easily” survive.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Where will you be watching from? Have a bold electoral prediction? Drop me a line and I’ll keep you anon, just like all those mysterious sources you’re still curious about. We’re back in your inbox on Friday.
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