We’re coming down to the gun lap in the heated race to become Mississauga’s next mayor and it’s a four way race. The House is out for the summer. But to start — meet Mr. Premier’s new crew.
THE LEDE
There’s a new cabinet in town.
With the spring session kaput a week early, as we scooped on Monday, Premier Doug Ford unveiled a major revamp of his front bench yesterday — with more ministers, a big swap and a handful of climbers.
Two years into the Tories’ second mandate and regardless of when, this is expected to be Ford’s campaign team, with the rumour mill in overdrive and Premier Ford cagey — “stay tuned,” he teased — about a spring snap election.
Here’s who’s up, who’s down, who’s back — and all the hot reaction:
— The big move: Stephen Lecce is the new energy minister, taking over from Todd Smith, who’s replacing him at education. It’s a promotion for Lecce, viewed as a top government communicator.
He’s set to be central to the Tories’ carbon tax counter. “His job is going to be to tie [Liberal leader] Bonnie Crombie into a carbon tax straight jacket. And he’ll do it, too,” said one source.
Indeed, he didn’t waste time. Speaking to reporters, Lecce launched an opening salvo. “We're governing and we're focused on building infrastructure, making life affordable, investing in reliable clean energy for Ontario families, to win the next election, to fuel growth in our economy — and we're going to do that without raising the carbon tax as the Liberals,” he said.
Meanwhile, over at education, Smith will have it smooth as he looks to build ties with the teachers’ unions: the last of the province's big four inked labour deals in early March. “We look forward to working collaboratively to rebuild and strengthen our public education system,” said the elementary teachers’ union. “We have reservations, given the Ford government’s track record on public education and privatization agenda, but believe that Minister Smith should be given an opportunity to demonstrate a different approach.”
— The other big move: Steve Clark — who quit as housing minister over the Greenbelt saga — will replace Paul Calandra as the Tories’ house leader, with no spot at the cabinet table. Calandra, despite rumour that he could be poached by Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, is staying put at housing.
— The climbers: There’s six new faces jumping in. Natalia Kusendova-Bashta — a registered nurse who worked in the ER throughout the pandemic — is taking over at long term care from Stan Cho, who’s making the move to tourism.
For Ford, it’s a two in one. As a cabinet minister, the Tories are looking to boost Kusendova-Bashta’s name recognition in Mississauga Centre, one of the ridings where Crombie, the former mayor, is considering a run. It would also dampen Kusendova’s federal ambitions, if any, which her team denied interest in earlier this year.
Mike Harris Jr. is the new red tape reduction minister.
A whit of new associate ministers were also promoted, including: Nolan Quinn in forestry, Stephen Crawford in mines, Sam Oosterhoff in energy, under Lecce, and Trevor Jones for emergency preparedness and response.
— Zee Hamid — who had been widely expected to become a junior minister after his win in Milton — was passed over, though is likely to be named a parliamentary assistant.
Internally, per one source, there are “more questions than answers” about Ford’s draft — and the size of the team.
“The cabinet doesn’t have enough chairs for how many ministers there are now,” they said. “Can’t even tell if some of the positions are promotions, where ministries are split in two just for the sake of adding more members to the cabinet.”
That’s a reference to Cho’s new tourism portfolio, with responsibility for the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation, while CFL star Neil Lumsden stays put at sport. Rob Flack is headed to “farming, agriculture and agribusiness,” with Lisa Thompson at the helm of a downsized rural affairs.
For a second, it’s “bread crumbs.” “There’s signs of a few people who may punch out before the next election, auditions for a few people who may be able to move into bigger things.”
Meanwhile, a third, Liberal source, weighed in. Ford “recognized that education is going to be a primary battle,” they said. “They’re trying to deoxygenize the unions’ plans by putting in a minister with a wife who’s a vice principal.”
One federal Conservative, former Ford advisor felt the same. “Ontario has desperately needed a new education minister for years. I hope real policy changes are coming, so this will be remembered as a great day for all students, parents and teachers.”
Outside Ford’s bubble, more jabs: “Brutal,” said NDP leader Marit Stiles. “Doug Ford is keeping his friends close, and his cronies even closer,” charged Liberal captain Bonnie Crombie. The rejig “won’t repair the damage caused by this government,” added Green leader Mike Schreiner.
But for Ford, this is the dream squad. “We’re at an important moment in our province’s history with clear choices,” he said. “Our team is choosing growth and prosperity. We’re choosing lower taxes and better jobs with bigger paycheques.”
Gun lap — The race to become Mississauga’s next mayor is a four way.
That’s the upshot of a trio of fresh data released, showing Carolyn Parrish’s lead taking a nosedive, while Dipika Damerla and Alvin Tedjo close in with a narrow gap.
Let’s dig in.
What’s in it: Across all three surveys, conducted by Mainstreet Research, Pollara and Liaison, Parrish’s lead has plunged to as little as one point. That’s a slip from the nearly twofold lead she enjoyed since the start of the race.
Pollara has Parrish ahead of Tedjo with three points, while Mainstreet has Damerla in second, just a point behind. Liaison’s survey found both Tedjo and Damerla tied a point behind the former councillor.
On Carolyn’s campaign: Word in town is that two more surveys, commissioned by Parrish’s team, have been conducted: one by pollster Brett McFarquhar, another by the Environics Institute. McFarquhar’s poll left Parrish “panicked,” according to some familiar, showing Tedjo and Dasko on the rise, with Damerla back in fourth.
The former councillor’s decision to pass on all candidates’ debates and limit press could be blowing up. “We’ve seen an evaporation of Carolyn’s support because of her disparaging comments — and her continual avoidance of media and the public,” said Aleem Kanji, co chair for Damerla’s campaign.
“Advance voter turnout has been driven by determined voters to ensure that perceived front runner doesn’t win,” he added.
“The Bonnie tide is moving behind Dipika,” a second source said. “The Natalie endorsement helped suppress Danny [Singh]’s supporters, who were likely going to vote for Carolyn.” That’s a reference to the former mayor’s nod to Natalie Hart in a local council race.
In public, Crombie is staying out of the race. But in private, as we reported: “the broad consensus on Team Bonnie is Team Anyone But Carolyn.” With dead heat between Parrish, Damerla and Tedjo, jumping in is viewed as a risk move for the Liberal leader.
So: With the mayor’s chair wide open and all top three within the margin of error, GOTV will be critical.
“[Parrish] made critical mistakes in early debates, then compounded her losses by refusing to use other debates and forums as an opportunity to show voters she can do better,” explained NDP strategist Erin Morrison. “The team with the strongest get out the vote plan will have a meaningful advantage.”
It’s T minus three till E day.
AT THE PALACE
— The House is out for the summer. As we told you on Monday, the House rose for the summer a week early — but won’t return until six weeks later than expected, on October 21.
As one government source put it: “Ford wants everyone out so people can’t say they haven’t seen their member since they were elected” — and with more snap election speculation and the temperature up, campaigning season over barbecued burgers and hot dogs is on.
The Tories say the work won’t stop — but across the aisle, it’s a bitter move. “There is a lot of work that will be happening over the summer to advance some of the priorities, not only of the government but some of the issues the opposition has raised too,” the former house leader said.
“What we shouldn’t be doing is extending the amount of time that the government is on summer break — summer break in the fall, when people expect us to be doing our jobs here at that time,” said NDP MPP Jessica Bell. Green Mike Schreiner chimed in: they “talk about how government needs to be run more like a business, and I can tell you, as a small business owner, I don’t know of any business that shuts down — literally shuts down for months.”
“That’s not right:” Here’s how gobsmacked Liberal house leader John Fraser heard the news.
— There’s no pause on the committee circuit:
Interior: The committee will meet Monday to grill Natural Resources and Forestry Minister Graydon Smith on the ministry’s estimates. Also on deck: the deputy minister and a handful of policy advisors.
Finance: Same old. The committee will convene Tuesday for an estimates hearing for the Premier’s Office. No word yet on who’s up.
Social Policy: Health Minister Sylvia Jones and Associate Mental Health Minister Michael Tibollo are up for a Tuesday hearing on the ministry’s budgetary state, along with the deputy minister and a handful of advisors.
Justice Policy: Attorney General Doug Downey will appear for his ministry’s examination on Wednesday.
Heritage, Infrastructure and Cultural Policy: Housing enthusiasts, save the date! The committee will group on Thursday for MMAH’s examination hearing.
— More gravy, old joke: Continuing his “gravy train” joke, Liberal house leader John Fraser passed by to hand each bureau a can of Ford gravy.
“No one cares about the gravy train,” reacted one Liberal. “They already know about all that and it doesn’t impact their daily lives. Everything needs to be weighed with: does this directly impact someone’s life?”
— Irked landlords are gearing up for a rally on the front lawn tomorrow afternoon as the provinces loses out on “vital rental housing supply,” they say, over tight eviction rules.
IN THE NEWS
— The looming transit strike in Toronto has been averted. The ATU local says job action is “on hold” after progress at the bargaining table — and is now at work “to arrive at a fair and reasonable contract that we can recommend to our members to ratify."
“This deal reflects a commitment to maintaining high standards of service for transit riders, while also valuing the hard work that ATU Local 113's members perform every day,” wrote transit commission chair, councillor Jamaal Myers.
— A new poll released by the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation shows that a majority of union members report that “there are more incidents of violence” since they began working in schools.
Union president Karen Littlewood said it’s alarming. “Our survey highlights a disturbing reality: violence in Ontario schools is not just a rare occurrence, but a growing threat.”
The union’s ask: Littlewood is asking the province to erect a new “Emergency Safe School Fund” for the recruitment of new student support personnel.
— On campus: University of Toronto president Meric Gertler says agreeing with the demands presented by pro Palestinian student protestors “would create a false sense of unanimity which can discourage or fail to acknowledge opposing views” at the university.
“We are seeking relief through the court to end the unauthorized encampment and to reopen this space so that everyone can have the same right to express themselves without fear or a sense of exclusion,” he explained in a memo to the student body.
“With dozens of incidents now reported to police and five arrests made, it is clear the encampment has become a magnet for activity that is deeply inconsistent with our values, policies and practices.”
But without a court order, Toronto Police says it won’t get involved.
WHAT WE’RE READING
— Brian Lilley says it’s “time for the political welfare to stop” over political party subsidies. He’s also not too happy about the FAO’s looming investigation into the Service Ontario sequel.
— John Michael McGrath argues that “there are real risks for the Tories in what they seem to be planning — and if things go badly for them, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves.”
— Premier Ford “fumbled” when he blamed immigrants for a shooting at a Jewish girls’ elementary school, Martin Regg Cohn says.
— Noor Javed asked if anything “really changed” three years after she wrote this about the Afzaal family’s killing: “The truth is, even when you tell yourself it doesn’t impact you, it still does.”
— A bill to combat workplace harassment at the municipal level is back on the order paper.
— But Elyse Skura asks: “what’s stopping Ontario from passing a law to oust misbehaving councillors?”
— Ontario is pulling the plug on the wastewater testing program just as Public Health Ontario found two new coronavirus strains that, experts warn, could make it “easier for the virus to get through people’s immunity.”
— The province’s pharmacy regulatory body pressured a pharmacist involved in a lawsuit against Shoppers Drug Mart to step down from their board of directors — and launched a ethics investigation into him.
— Could we land “another major electric vehicle battery plant?” Yes, says the provincial salesperson.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Doug Ford’s schedule? A fortune teller who knows who Mississauga’s next mayor will be? Where should we be on E night? Drop me a line — ahmad@newsbeyond.ca — with tips, feedback, job moves and your best gravy recipes. You’ll stay anon. We’re back in your inbox next Friday.