THE LEDE
New president, new policies.
With Donald Trump set to return to the White House in seventy four days, Doug Ford is gearing up to navigate a new Washington over the next four years.
For Ford — who once was an ardent Trump loyalist with “not a doubt in [his] mind” that he’d vote for him — it’ll be about steering through a White House poised for a protectionist turn.
Trump has promised to levy a universal ten per cent on imports and services, with a “retribution” fee for countries that tax American goods, in response, over that mark. “If they charge us, we charge them. Very simple,” he said.
Point in check: With Trump shaping his cabinet, Robert Lighthizer — who was trade representative in his initial term — has been asked to return to the job. “The pivotal trade role of an arch protectionist will make trading allies, as well as China, nervous.”
For the United States’ third largest trade partner, the trade relationship is vital — and the province has already doubled down by inking agreements with individual states, like Indiana, Michigan, Nevada and Illinois, to “promote increased trade.”
“There’s a subnational push,” said one source, granted anonymity to discuss the intricacies of the government’s approach. “We don’t have the pleasure of just going to the White House and saying here’s what we want. We’re trying to be very impressionable with the state and governors. Our message is: ‘We want you to fight for us and with us. If our trade goes down — or there’s unfavorable trade terms, it’ll impact you too.”
“Of course, the federal government will lead the push on negotiating tariffs and free trade, but it doesn’t mean that we necessarily trust that they’re going to get it right,” they added.
It’s the reason Ford is making his own pitch. “Above all, we must avoid falling into a ‘Buy Canada’ or ‘Buy America’ mindset that would jeopardize our existing trading relationship,” Ford said in a statement. He pumped up “a ‘Buy Can Am’ mindset that creates new jobs and opportunities for workers and businesses on both sides of the border.”
Trump’s win — a scenario Ford’s team has spent “many months” strategizing for — could jeopardize many of the automotive deals the province has inked, which the source tied to incentives for green vehicles provided by the Inflation Reduction Act.
The worry is that Trump’s protectionist approach will “reduce the ability” of manufacturers and automotives to ship across the border without duty fees. “We just gave them a lot of money. If Trump says he’s going to cancel the IRA or start imposing levies, those manufacturers might get up and leave.”
And that gave the province the clout it needed to close the deals. “We’ve had a formula that worked,” the source said. “If tariffs are on the table and free trade is gone, we’ve lost our competitive position here. What if he has his own plan to increase manufacturing subsidies to bring back automotives? They have a guaranteed four years under Trump’s policies. It’s the trade and investment thing that has the government most concerned. Nothing else.”
Ahead of the Trump era, David Paterson became the province’s representative in Washington. A familiar face was named to lead the advocacy push and a consultancy was hired to lobby on the province’s behalf until the transition is complete next year.
“If we weren’t worried about Trump, David Paterson wouldn’t have had that job,” the source said. “His job is to schmooze, meet, network and make political connections so when the day comes, he’ll have them.”
As for an “optimistic” Mr. Premier — who Paterson called the “best closer” — he opened on a high note: “I look forward to working with Mr. Trump, Mr. Vance, their administration and leaders across the United States as we continue to build and grow together,” he said.
And it’s all just part of the plan. “There were a lot of lessons learned from the last presidency,” the source noted. “They’re hoping Trump and his team understand that we’re a good partner.”
AT THE PALACE
— The House is out next week for a constituency week.
— Here’s what’s ahead at committee:
Justice Policy: The committee will meet on Thursday and Friday to consider Bill 194. Those who wished to deliver an oral presentation had until Wednesday to register, while all other entries are due by Friday.
Heritage, Infrastructure and Cultural Policy: Bill 197 is up for public consultation on Wednesday. It’ll also be the last day to submit any input.
— Nomination watch: Prabmeet Sarkaria, Lorne Coe, Billy Pang and Deepak Anand are back on the Tories’ ticket in Brampton South, Whitby, Markham— Unionville and Mississauga—Malton.
Add Eglinton—Lawrence to the list of constituencies where Ford’s team is in need of a new candidate, with Robin Martin not seeking another term. “I will continue to work hard on the priorities of our local community right up until the next election,” she said.
In the last round, Martin slid past her Liberal challenger, clinching a win by just over 500 votes. This time and without the incumbent edge, it’s a top target seat for Ford — and the Tories are already zeroing in on Vince Gasparro, the Liberal candidate.
“The Queen of the Carbon Tax appoints her top carbon tax advisor to run for her,” the party charged.
Kelly Dunn is set to be nominated as the Liberal candidate in Markham—Stouffville.
It’s not lost on some that it’s Jane Philpott’s old federal seat — and if she hadn’t been asked to lead Doug Ford’s primary care action team, she would’ve likely contested it provincially as a star Liberal candidate.
“There’s a certain amount of trust in politics — if you’re talking with the government and then accept a keynote to speak at the party, it’s just bad form,” one Liberal source said of Philpott’s move.
Nirmala Armstrong and Kaniz Mouli will carry the Liberal banner in Markham— Thornhill and Oakville—North Burlington, respectively.
Check out who’s already been nominated using our tracker.
— The Green Party is holding their annual general meeting in Kingston. It’ll feature a keynote speech by Chris Williams, the architect of the Green Party of England and Wales’ “best ever general election success this year,” taking them from a caucus of one to four.
— Heidi LM Jacobs’ “1934: The Chatham Coloured All Stars’ Barrier Breaking Year” is the winner of the Speaker’s Book Award. Her book was one of six that made the last cut and it’ll be available for sale at the souvenir shop in the lobby.
— Know a seventh or eighth grader? Applications to become a Legislative Page are due on Friday.
TABLED
— Bill 218, Honouring Veterans Act — The bill, which cleared third reading on Wednesday, would develop a new award, in partnership with the Royal Canadian Legion, and explicitly condemn “any act that disrespects veterans, including committing the act of stolen valour.”
To add: New regulatory changes will allow eligible veterans and their families to receive, through the Soldiers’ Aid Commission, up to $3,000 a year — up from $2,000 — for essential support. Veterans and active military personnel will soon be able to ride GO Transit and UP Express gratis. More here.
To add (II): Liberal Karen McCrimmon’s motion, which would extend the fare exemption to reservists, passed unanimously. “Metrolinx should not be dividing our armed forces by creating two tiers of recognition,” she said.
— Bill 219, No Free Ride for Fossil Fuels Act — The bill, introduced by Mike Schriener and Aislinn Clancy, would give municipalities the power to impose fees on oil and gas providers for using public land.
— Bill 220, Election Finances Amendment Act — Attorney General Doug Downey’s bill, which also made it past third reading on Wednesday, would extend the political parties’ quarterly allowance, which the Ford government was set to eliminate at the end of the year, by another two years.
— Bill 221, Day of Reflection for Indian Residential Schools Act — The bill, introduced by Sol Mamakwa, would proclaim the last day of September as the “Day of Reflection for Indian Residential Schools,” and recognize it as a provincial holiday.
— Bill 222, Heat Stress Act — Peter Tabuns, Chandra Pasma, Lise Vaugeois and Jamie West’s bill would require a Worker Heat Protection Standard be established and make heat stress training mandatory for employees.
PASSED
— Bill 216, Building Ontario For You Act — The implementation bill for the fall economic update passed, 64 to 22. Public consultation at committee was cut down to one day.
— PC Amarjot Sandhu’s motion, which would “explore the establishment or adjustment of a waiting period for drivers holding a Class G license before they can apply for commercial vehicle licenses,” passed.
KILLED
— Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria’s Bill 212, which will ban bike lanes and expedite transit projects, and Energy Minister Stephen Lecce’s Bill 214, which will establish an integrated energy plan to coordinate electricity, natural gas and other fuel, will be studied at Heritage and the Interior, respectively.
ON THE RECORD
Speaking to the Economic Club of Canada, Premier Doug Ford let slip some food for thought: “The way to the premier’s heart is through his stomach, just to let you know — and I got a big stomach.”
“I will pass that on to Jenny, thank you,” mayor Mark Sutcliffe responded. Earlier in his speech, Ford said he liked Sutcliffe’s wife, Jenny, “a little better” because, unlike her husband, she’d make him cookies.
IN THE NEWS
— Rachel Chernos Lin defeated Anthony Furey to become Don Valley West’s next councillor.
Early polling showed the former Toronto Sun columnist ahead, but Chernos Lin, the chair of the Toronto District School Board, took 55 per cent of the vote, with Furey trailing at 31 per cent.
Here’s where it’s provincial: Chernos Lin, who called her win a “repudiation of negativity and division,” was backed by former premier Kathleen Wynne (her spouse, Jane Rounthwaite, led Chernos Lin’s fundraising). Wynne made the endorsement during an interview with this reporter in London, calling Furey “bigoted.” “I think it’s unfortunate, I’m not going to respond to incendiary allegations,” he replied, calling it “nasty.”
Privately, to consolidate the Liberal vote, Wynne urged two other progressive candidates — Dhruv Jain and Evan Sambasivam — to drop out and endorse Chernos Lin. The two ultimately heeded her call.
The Tories were energized about Furey. As one source put it, polling was “instructive” for Doug Ford — with voters “fixated on what they view as tangible concerns that are core to the function of government.”
Furey pulled support from Tim Hudak and Stephen Lecce, while Brian Lilley said he would “bring sanity and a touch of balance” to council.
— With the threat of an early election in the air, the per vote subsidy, which guaranteed steady cash for political parties, received unanimous approval for a two year extension. Here’s the reaction, with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation calling it a “terrible insult” and “another broken promise.”
— Premier Ford has “ordered an audit of discretionary spending” at all school boards following a costly trip to Hawaii by three personnel at Lambton Kent District School Board.
Speaking of trips, a teachers’ union is calling on four trustees at one Ontario Catholic school board to step down following a trip to Italy.
Meanwhile, a dozen of them are suing TikTok, Snapchat, Facebook and Instagram, “alleging the popular platforms have harmed kids’ mental health.”
— J. David Wake is set to retire as the province’s integrity commissioner in January.
— A fresh poll found that a controversial proposal to pull out bike lanes from major streets has the majority’s support. It’s already been put to the test by the government’s favourite poll shop, as this newsletter reported.
WHAT WE'RE READING
— Jane Philpott says that the reaction to her new gig “has been overwhelmingly positive.” “I think it’s hard for even the most partisan individuals to say it’s a bad thing.”
— John Michael McGrath says “legalizing housing” is the right attitude for the next government — but it’s a tall order.
— It’s more dodge than detail from the government on whether they’ll buy back the 407.
— Here’s the full list of submissions for the redevelopment of Ontario Place, which the government has long concealed.
— One man has been arrested and charged with publicly inciting hatred after a protest at the Hindu Sabha Mandir temple in Brampton.
— Meanwhile, more cities are “considering enacting local laws that would ban protests near institutions such as places of worship and schools.”
— Another beluga whale has died at Marineland.
— A new study found that hundreds will lose access to supervised consumption sites in Toronto, which will likely mean more public drug use.
IN THE LOBBY
Here’s this week’s list of new, renewed and amended lobbyist registrations:
Daniel Marino (Impact Public Affairs): Canadian Institute of Quantity Surveyors
Tasnia Khan (Amir Remtulla Inc.): Insurance Bureau of Canada
Michael Ras (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): CAPREIT LP, Toyota Canada Inc.
Felix Burns (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Ontario Chiropractic Association, Umicore Battery Materials Canada Inc.
Ramiro Mora (CWell Consulting Inc.): Storm Services
Elena Mantagaris (StrategyCorp Inc.): GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy Americas LLC
Sadaf Abbasi (Sussex Strategy Group): PUC Services Inc.
Cyrus Reporter (Gowling WLG): Opta Group LLC
Yaron Gersh (The CCS Group): ECRI, Seine River First Nation, United Chiefs and Councils of Mnidoo Mnising, Northwestern Wound Care, Mushkegowuk Tribal Council
Meera Mahadeo (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Violence Against Women, Services Elgin County
Marc Kealey (Kealey & Associates Inc.): Charity Gaming Ontario
Zak Rhemtulla (Amir Remtulla Inc.): Molson Canada 2005
Ralph Palumbo (The Hillcrest Consulting Group Inc.): The Corporation of the Municipality of Temagami
Chris Benedetti (Sussex Strategy Group): FortisOntario Inc.
Marisa Maslink (McMillan Vantage): Proofpoint Inc
Caroline Pinto (Counsel Public Affairs Inc.): Ontario Chiropractic Association
Michael von Herff (PAA Advisory | Conseils): Visa Canada
Faria Amin (Sussex Strategy Group): Electro Federation Canada
Giancarlo Drennan (Sussex Strategy Group): Waste Connections of Canada
Nivitha Jeyakumar (McMillan Vantage): Ontario Fruit and Vegetable Growers' Association
Christopher Chapin (Upstream Strategy Group): Canadian Addiction Treatment Centres LP, Ontario Stone, Sand and Gravel Association, Ontario Monument Builders Association, Abbott Medical Canada
Regan Watts (Fratton Park Inc.): Crystal Beach Tennis and Yacht Club
Michael Rudderham (MCR Public Affairs): Southbridge Care Homes
Phil Trinh (Maple Leaf Strategies Inc.): Facebook Canada Ltd.
Michael Gimelshtein (The CCS Group): Nigigoonsiminikaaning First Nation
Donald Gracey (CG Management & Communications Inc.): AT-REG Advisory Group
Sam MacMillan (Enterprise Canada): Westcliff University
Aidan Grove-White (StrategyCorp Inc.): Kennedy Road GK Holdings Limited
John Matheson (StrategyCorp Inc.): Federation of Rental-Housing Providers of Ontario, Elfrida Community Builders Group Inc.
Jim Karygiannis (GTA Strategies): Aero Future Canada
Laura Kurkimaki (McMillan Vantage): Robotics Centre, Inc, Vector Institute
Rob Leone (Earnscliffe Strategy Group): International Business University
Matthew Dubé (Proof Strategies): StubHub Inc.
Stephanie Dunlop (Sandfields Corporation): Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario
Karl Baldauf (McMillan Vantage): Vector Institute
Marketa Evans: Colleges Ontario
Brian Bentz: Alectra Inc.
Severn Cullis-Suzuki: David Suzuki Foundation
Paul Williams: Emergent Bio Solutions
Avik Dey: Capital Power Corporation
Rhonda Lenton: York University
Kristi Doyle: Ontario Association of Architects
Matthew Anfinson: Great Canadian Gaming Corporation
Franco Naccarato: Meat & Poultry Ontario
Marie-Eve Royer: Canada Bread Company, Limited
Owen Charters: BGC Canada
Heather Chalmers: GEPR Energy Canada Inc.
James Pierlot: Blue Pier™
Tonie Chaltas: Achēv
Alonzo Jones: Association of Architectural Technologists of Ontario
Laura Paglia: Investment Industry Association of Canada
Patrick Drolet: Notarius; a Portage Cybertech Company
Sean Griffin: UPS Canada
Anita Stellinga: United Way Greater Toronto
James Russell: Orbiseed North America Inc.
Marketa Evans: Colleges Ontario
Brian Bentz: Alectra Inc.
Severn Cullis-Suzuki: David Suzuki Foundation
Paul Williams: Emergent Bio Solutions
Avik Dey: Capital Power Corporation
Rhonda Lenton: York University
Kristi Doyle: Ontario Association of Architects
Matthew Anfinson: Great Canadian Gaming Corporation
Franco Naccarato: Meat & Poultry Ontario
Marie-Eve Royer: Canada Bread Company, Limited
Owen Charters: BGC Canada
Heather Chalmers: GEPR Energy Canada Inc.
James Pierlot: Blue Pier™
Tonie Chaltas: Achēv
Alonzo Jones: Association of Architectural Technologists of Ontario
Laura Paglia: Investment Industry Association of Canada
Patrick Drolet: Notarius; a Portage Cybertech Company
Sean Griffin: UPS Canada
Anita Stellinga: United Way Greater Toronto
James Russell: Orbiseed North America Inc.
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