The federal deal is dead. What will Ford do?
And the proposed Liberal constitutional changes, explained
THE LEDE
Jagmeet Singh has pulled the plug on his governing pact with Justin Trudeau — a surprise move that could quell — or spur — an early provincial election.
To sum: In a video, Singh said he’s “ripped up” the agreement — slamming the Trudeau government for being “too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests.” The lucrative deal, which was on track to expire next year, gave Trudeau the required support to pass budgetary policy and govern as if he held a majority in exchange for headway on a slate of progressive policies. But with the Liberals’ sinking popularity dragging down support for the fourth party — and a blue sweep expected, Singh killed the deal.
“In the next federal election, Canadians will choose between Pierre Poilievre’s callous cuts or hope,” he said. “Hope that when we stand united, we win. That Canada’s middle class will once again thrive together.”
With Premier Doug Ford eyeing an early election call to capitalize on Trudeau’s disapproval and out of fear of the Underhill theory and the impact of a Poilievre government on provincial expenditure, the federal uncertainty could give Ford a reason to — or to not — make a quick move.
We surveyed the provincial mood. Here’s what could come next:
— A fall election: With the premature collapse of the deal, the timing of the next federal election is anyone’s guess. With Ford eager for a provincial vote ahead of the national, he could call an election as early as this fall.
“I mean, could Ford try going this fall? Sure,” said one Conservative source. “More interesting is the timing of the next provincial budget. Does this cause Ontario to drop a February or early March budget to make sure they get in before the federal election?”
“The faster the Trudeau government is gone, the faster Bonnie [Crombie] can beat Ford,” explained a Liberal source. As this newsletter previously reported, painting a contrast has been a challenge for the Liberal leader. Earlier this year, speaking to canvassers, Crombie said: “if you’re at the door and they say federal election, say no! No! She's the leader, not the other guy.”
“It wouldn’t surprise me if Bonnie got a bus saying ‘not Trudeau’s Liberals,’” the source added.
A fall election is still unlikely. “We aren’t having an election this year,” said Ford earlier this week when asked about the prospect — and it’s on par with the Tories’ timeline for election readiness. The nomination process is underway but with less than half of the ridings requiring new candidates, a December deadline has been set for incumbents to decide whether to seek another term before a majority are nominated en masse.
Some are skeptical. “Doug saying there won’t be an election this year made me think there’s definitely going to be an election this year," one reader wrote in. “He has a solid track record of going back on what he said.”
— A spring election: Despite the uncertainty, a federal election isn’t expected until the spring.
“I don’t think anyone actually believes Singh pulls the plug before he qualifies for his pension in February,” the Conservative source added. “I doubt the government will fall before the budget. The NDP doesn’t have much incentive to bring them down,” a senior Liberal texted.
In that scenario, a spring provincial election — which Ford has not ruled out — could occur. It might work to his advantage: a federal blue wave timed near a provincial election could lead to a similar outcome.
One Liberal agreed. “Our brand will still hurt even when Pierre is in power. Bonnie will still face the question of whether the Liberal movement is dead.”
— Let them lead: Is it possible for Ford to leverage a spring federal election to call his own? “Rationale could be that he would need a mandate to deal with the new federal government,” another pondered.
— Not at all: The federal uncertainty and provincial risk could sway Ford away from the idea altogether. Conservative strategist John Mykytyshyn — who admitted “valid basis for the conjecture” — wrote: It “would be to give the opposition parties what they currently lack: an issue that could unite the voters into sending the premier a message with a reduced majority, if not an outright defeat.”
What’s in it for Marit Stiles? With the deal dead, it will be harder for Ford to associate the red with the orange. “As Singh and his caucus focus on highlighting what they’ve been able to accomplish with the balance of power, it’s a helpful reminder in Ontario of what we stand for — and that only the NDP puts everyday people first,” said a senior party source.
SCOOP — When they trek to London for their AGM, Liberals are set to vote on a slew of proposed constitutional amendments.
That’s per a fresh report released by the party’s constitutional committee earlier this week, with a series of recommendations on the constitution’s “complexity” and the internal governance structure.
Here are the highlights:
— Removing the caucus liaison from the executive council: The caucus liaison — the direct link between the caucus and party executive — would no longer be “a standing member” of the council.
— Three unapproved absences: Previously mandatory, the provision requiring an executive member to vacate their seat after three unapproved absences would now become optional.
— A smaller provincial council: The size of provincial council will be reduced, limited to riding association presidents, executive council members and commission table officers.
— Fewer meetings: The executive council will now be required to hold a minimum of six regularly scheduled meetings per year, down from the previous eight.
— Increasing the number of members required to call a special meeting: This change would make it more difficult to convene a special meeting, requiring support from six executive members rather than four.
— Changes to the frequency of annual general meetings: The annual meeting — now referred to as the “convention” — will no longer be “annual.” Instead, it could be held every two years. “Increasing the time between gatherings slightly will allow for greater continuity of the executive council and free up staff resources associated,” the committee wrote.
— Requiring ranked secret ballots for executive elections: The election of executives would require the use of secret, ranked ballots.
— Elimination of automatic delegate status for past MPs, MPPs, leaders: Former MPs, MPPs, leaders and presidents would no longer be automatically designated as delegates at the party’s convention.
— Changes to meeting requirements: The requirement to hold regional meetings is removed and the leader will no longer be required to participate in the executive council’s accountability sessions.
— Ending the voting rights of all associate members: Associate members, including non-resident members, would no longer have voting rights. The “immediate past member” status — which has “served a meaningful purpose,” per the committee, during a time when a grace period was required to renew a membership by physical mail and paper — will be cancelled.
— The leadership review question: Per the rules, the leader would not face an automatic leadership review if they win a majority government. If the leader does not receive half of the membership’s support on a review, they would be automatically removed and a leadership election would be called.
“Do you endorse [name of incumbent leader] to continue serving as Ontario Liberal Party Leader?” will be the question put to the membership during a review.
— Explicitly allowing the leader to revoke nominations: The leader will be allowed to revoke a candidate’s nomination, providing them with greater control over recruitment processes. In the last round, the party was forced to drop several candidates at the eleventh hour.
— A new commission: The party would establish the “Ontario Liberal Seniors Commission” by “giving it representation at the party’s various levels of authority.”
“As a large voting demographic with reliably high turnout, success in engaging senior voters would yield a disproportionate electoral advantage,” the committee wrote. “As the federal party’s seniors’ commission has demonstrated, senior volunteers are uniquely effective in engaging other senior voters due to rapid development of connection of trust through discussion of shared interests and values. The commission created by this proposal would aim to replicate that outreach success.”
Who’s on the committee: Veteran organizer Milton Chan — who ran Galen Naidoo Harris’ campaign in Milton and Yasir Naqvi’s leadership bid — is the chair. Other members include municipal and planning lawyer Eric Davis, Jennifer Hodgins from Norton Rose, Assistant Crown Attorney Delia Greco, Kate Julien from Canada Life, Rousseau Mazzuca of Aaron Rousseau LLP and Sean Torrie from Beneva.
AT THE PALACE
— The House is adjourned for the summer.
— A busy week ahead with four committee meetings on the schedule. Interior will convene on Monday to parse through ministerial spending. Same for Social Policy, Justice Policy and Heritage, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
— Fundraising watch: The NDP says it “smashed” a goal of raking in over a million in just ten weeks.
What Stiles’ team is saying: “Under Marit’s leadership, we’re not just meeting our goals — we are exceeding them,” said provincial director Kevin Beaulieu, calling it a clear sign that Stiles and the party “are the ones to defeat Doug Ford and his politicians to bring the change that the province is ready for.”
The party says it raised cash from “19,989 contributions” — with “1246 brand new donors” — during what is typically a slow season for fundraising. The average donation was “just under $52.”
The latest data still had the Tories’ cash arsenal far, far ahead, with over $3 million raised this year. Smaller donations are not captured in the quarterly disclosure.
Facing the threat of an early election that’s “no longer just a rumour,” the NDP closed out the summer with an email push to rally donations.
Here’s what’s ahead on the money trail next week:
The calendar is cleared for the Liberals. The local “Annual Liberal Family Barbeque” in Cobourg on Sunday. A “fall fundraiser” in St. Thomas on Thursday. Also, on Thursday, Lucille Collard will headline a “cocktail fundraiser” in Ottawa.
— Nomination tracker: Elizabeth Mendes and Alison Gohel are on the Liberal ticket in Mississauga Lakeshore and Oakville, respectively. A lone incumbent — Collard — has yet to be nominated, though it’s expected to happen soon.
Meanwhile, for the NDP, Lisa Gretzky has been nominated in Windsor West. Catherine Fife will be nominated in Waterloo at the Knox Presbyterian Church tonight. Lise Vaugeois will get the nod in Thunder Bay Superior North tomorrow, with John Vanthof and Jeff Burch set to be nominated in Timiskaming Cochrane and Niagara Centre, respectively, later this month.
— In Liberal land, more moves:
Vince Gasparro — a member of Crombie’s climate policy committee who is set to speak at the policy convention in London — is eyeing the Liberal nomination in Eglinton Lawrence. Viewed as a favourite, he’s expected to become the candidate in the riding.
Pam Jeffery is seeking the nomination in University Rosedale — a riding held by NDP MPP Jessica Bell. The founder of the Women's Executive Network says the province is facing “generational challenges,” with “families struggling to make ends meet, our healthcare system on the brink, and many wonder if they'll ever afford a home.”
Andrea Barrack — a “star candidate” on the Liberal ticket in the riding last time around — is not running again. “I’m not seeking the nomination this round,” she said in a brief email.
Palwashah Ali — the president of the University of Toronto’s Young Liberals and a member of Adil Shamji’s team — will become the next president of Ontario’s Young Liberals. While her uncontested slate is a lock — sans two — for approval at the AGM, the deadline to challenge it quietly passed on Saturday. Meet Palwashah’s crew.
— In Bay of Quinte, Sean Kelly — a local councillor — will carry the Liberal banner, while Lori Borthwick is on the ticket for the Greens. The Tories are already out with fresh dirt on Crombie’s “hand-picked candidate.”
With just over ten days until voting day, the campaign is in high gear. Steve Halloran — the Tories’ regional organizer — is leading Tyler Allsopp’s campaign. Eric Osborne, executive assistant to Liberal John Fraser, is Kelly’s campaign manager. It isn’t Osborne’s war room debut: he was Naidoo Harris’ deputy campaign manager in Milton. Eric Cherpit is Amanda Robertson’s campaign manager.
— We all know about Kamala HQ. Well, now, there’s Bonnie HQ.
PRESS PLAY
— Colin D’Mello will become the new host of Focus Ontario, beginning in October.
— The Trillium’s Jessica Smith Cross, the Globe’s Laura Stone, the Sun’s Brian Lilley and AM640’s Greg Brady joined The Agenda to chat about the summer that was at Queen’s Park.
— Ahmad spoke to Brady about how the parties are gearing up for a possible early election.
IN THE NEWS
— At a Tuesday presser in Brampton, Premier Ford spoke about home invasions, sluggish housing starts, Crombie, the threat of an early election and more. Here’s what you need to know:
On residential burglaries: “It starts with a criminal code from the federal government. When we catch these people, these bad people, these bad guys — they 99.9 per cent are guys — we need to throw them in jail. We don’t need to throw them in jail for a day or two days. We need to send them to jail for years and keep them behind bars because if there’s a deterrent, people are going to think twice about breaking into someone’s home.”
On jail capacity: “Stop being these bleeding hearts out there. Oh, little Johnny’s going to do better! Oh, he’s only put a gun to the person’s head eighteen times. Yeah, little Johnny’s going to jail and we need to throw the key away because I’m just sick and tired of the violence that’s happening in this province. We need the federal government to change the criminal code once and for all and stop being a bunch of bleeding hearts. People are fed up with this crime. They’re absolutely done with it.”
On buying a home: “It’s a challenge for people to go out and get a mortgage. When the interest rates come down — I’m confident they’re going to come down — that’s a whole different story.”
On housing headaches: “When a municipality and the mayor and the council lead the charge, if they want to get something done, they can get it done. When there isn’t a will, it’s not going to happen. A perfect example of getting things done is with Mayor Brown here. And then there’s other municipalities — they don’t want to build — they’re the first to go out there and say we need more housing but by the way, you aren't building in my area. You need to build somewhere else. Mississauga actually shrunk. Just think of that. Mississauga shrunk under Bonnie Crombie. Taxes went higher than they ever went. It was poor leadership. That’s the difference between a mayor like former mayor Bonnie Crombie and the new, great mayor that’s in there right now, that’s going to do an incredible job; and a great mayor like Patrick Brown.”
What Ford was there to announce: More housing and critical infrastructure cash — $29.7 million — for Brampton.
— CUPE Ontario’s executive board passed two motions “in support” of Fred Hahn as provincial president and national vice president — a move, the board says, is a “recognition of the democratic will” of the members.
What to know: In an internal memo, the board said it's reiterating a commitment to “fighting for the rights of the Palestinian people, and the right of workers to be able to advocate for solidarity with Palestine,” in line with “the democratic decisions that our members have made over the last two decades.”
“At this week’s planning session, members of CUPE Ontario’s executive board took the opportunity to pass motions in support of Brother Hahn. We passed these motions as recognition of the democratic will of CUPE members.”
On Hahn’s skirmish with the Ford government: The board said it “deplores the words and actions” of Piccini and Ford — calling them “scurrilous attacks” that “insult the democratic process through which Brother Hahn was elected less than three months ago.”
“In that respect, the attacks also fall on CUPE Ontario’s elected board, representatives and members. We will accept no advice or comment from Conservative politicians who make no secret of their contempt for working people, whether through wage restraint legislation, attempts to impose collective agreements, cutting, privatizing or starving public services, or indeed any of the myriad scandals and ongoing corruption that characterizes their government.”
— On the day it was shut down, local inspectors found no “immediate hazards” at the Ontario Science Center and noted how the “‘critical’ roof panels had already been secured.”
— Metrolinx’s CEO won’t say whether the Eglinton LRT will be completed before the year is out.
— Ground has broken on three Ontario Line stations.
POLL WATCH
— A fresh survey by Liaison Strategies shows that despite wide unpopularity, Premier Ford is riding high, expected to retain his majority if an election were held today.
Among decided voters, the Tories are up with 40 per cent of the vote, with the Liberals trailing at 27 per cent and the NDP in third at 21 per cent. Six per cent would go Green and another six are in search of an alternative.
“Look for those numbers to change once an election is called — early or not — as more Ontarians will be following provincial politics once there is actually an election,” said Liaison’s David Valentin.
WHAT WE'RE READING
— In her “most public speech ever,” she asked Minister Calandra for a municipal code of conduct. Coun. Mara Nagy on why the province should heed her call for a tool with teeth.
— Here’s the inside story on why Jagmeet Singh killed the governance deal.
— The “marriage of convenience ended because it was no longer convenient,” Althia Raj says.
— Justin Trudeau’s national campaign director will quit because “he didn’t think Trudeau could win the next election and that [he] should be replaced with someone who felt Trudeau could win a fourth term.”
— Could Pierre Poilievre’s push for an early election be driven by fear of Ford, Susan Delacourt asked.
— Charlie Pinkerton on how Mr. Fixer — Paul Calandra — cleaned up the Greenbelt scandal with “holy water.” No joke, he “sprinkled” at least one of [Steve] Clark’s past aides “with water.”
— John Michael McGrath says the phone ban in the classroom is an idea worth a try.
— On the ban, however, some say it’s unclear on enforcement and impact.
— Martin Regg Cohn says, with Ford seeking a pretext for an early election, Stiles and Crombie “have failed to lay claim to a governing mandate of their own.”
— Threats against Elle Canada prompted publishers to drop Sarah Jama from their trailblazers’ list and remove the author’s byline from the story.
— A new report by the Toronto Region Board of Trade shows the cost of expanding Toronto’s transit system is ballooning.
— Expect a warm fall with less November rain, per a new forecast.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Little Johnny? Did you really put a gun to someone’s head eighteen times? Hit me up with a juicy leak or tip, item of gossip, story idea or your bet on when the next federal election will be. I’ll keep you anonymous. We’re back in your inbox next week.
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