Exclusive: Parrish's sitting pretty, Tedjo's in second
And it's dead heat between Hart and Singh
THE LEDE
SCOOP — It’s Parrish’s race to lose.
On the eve of the race to replace Bonnie Crombie as Mississauga’s next mayor, that’s the gist of a fresh, closing poll by Mainstreet Research, showing Carolyn Parrish — whose sizeable lead plunged this week — back on top, with Alvin Tedjo in second.
The survey, provided exclusively to this newsletter, was conducted over the weekend, polling a sample of 866 adults via telephone on their pick for the mayor’s seat.
By the numbers:
— Among all voters: The former councillor’s support has surged to 26 per cent. That’s a seven-point lead ahead of Tedjo, trailing in second at 19 per cent. Dipika Damerla and Stephen Dasko are in third and fourth, at 17 and 15 per cent.
— Among the leaning and undecided: It’s a tighter lead for Parrish. 27 per cent of decided and leaning voters would vote for Parrish, with Tedjo, the distant runner up, at 21 per cent. Damerla — who had been in a deadlock with Tedjo, according to recent data — is in third, at 18 per cent, with Dasko is chasing by two, at 16 per cent.
— The decided, alone: Parrish is still ahead of the pack, with 29 per cent of decided voters behind the former councillor. It’s an upsized lead, with Tedjo, seven back, at 22 per cent, Damerla at 20 and Dasko at 17 per cent.
It’s a U turn for the front runner, whose lead took a nosedive in the last leg of the race from a nearly doubled gap to as little as one point. As reported in this newsletter, a trio of public data, and two internal surveys, commissioned by Parrish’s team, left the former councillor “panicked,” according to some familiar.
“While the early undecided votes broke more toward Alvin Tedjo, Dipika Damerla and Stephen Dasko, the late deciders appear to have chosen the experienced front runner,” said Mainstreet’s Quito Maggi. “I expect to see Carolyn Parrish winning this election, as she was expected to do for the majority of this campaign.”
So, what led to this surge? A “number of factors” give Parrish the edge heading into E day, according to Maggi. “First, her support among older voters, who tend to turn out in greater numbers for municipal elections and byelections. Second, her support among those who told us they had already voted in advance. And lastly, the Ward 5 race, where her support is strong and will likely result in higher turnout.”
Here's the catch: Despite the former councillor’s clear lead — and the uphill climb for Tedjo, Damerla and Dasko, don’t call it a done deal. Tomorrow's GOTV push will be critical.
“A few X factors remain that could see any one of her three closest rivals prevail tomorrow,” said the pollster. He pointed to elevated turnout in any of Ward 1, 2 or 7, where Dasko, Tedjo, Damerla rep, respectively. “It could give [them] a boost.”
“The other X factor will be turnout among younger voters. If younger voters turn out in great numbers, it could close the gap on Parrish and negate the advantage among seniors.”
Meanwhile, it’s dead heat over in Parrish’s home base.
Earlier this month, we told you about the Liberal captain’s nod to a party stalwart in Ward 5, which Crombie was councillor for during her wee municipal days.
This council race was triggered after Parrish quit “on a matter of principle” to run for the top job. “I do not believe councillors should run for the mayoralty seat while hanging on to a ‘fall back’ position as councillor,” she said in her resignation letter.
It’s one of the city’s largest wards, covering two provincial ridings — and including the Britannia and Malton neighbourhoods, divided by Pearson Airport.
On the ballot are veteran Liberal organizer Natalie Hart, Parrish’s former executive assistant Danny Singh and Manish Sawhney, who worked for PC MPP Nina Tangri and is now on Raymond Cho’s team. Plus: local activist Hamid Akbar and social and housing policy expert Jordan Gray.
Mainstreet was on the ground between May 16 to June 9, polling a sample of 228 adults via telephone. With a smaller pool, the margin of error is around 6.5 per cent. Here’s what they found:
Among all voters, Hart has a narrow lead with 22 per cent, while Singh is in second at 20 per cent. The rest are trailing behind, with Gray at 8 per cent and Sawhney and Akbar at 5 per cent. 12 per cent say they’d vote for “someone else,” with a sizeable 29 per cent “undecided.”
What’s in it: “Hart holds a narrow lead,” says Maggi, calling it a “statistical tie with Danny Singh.” “Unlike the mayoral byelection, this is a two-horse race between Singh and Hart.”
“Ward 5 has a long history of electing strong and capable female candidates, including Carolyn Parrish, Bonnie Crombie and Eve Adams going back to 2003. Singh has his work cut out for him to end that streak,” he added. “With more undecided voters remaining in the closing days of this race, the outcome remains uncertain.”
Crombie’s endorsement of Hart — viewed as a no risk move, according to party sources — could move the needle. “My friend Natalie Hart has a proven track record,” the Liberal leader wrote, adding that she “has the work ethic, experience and skills to continue delivering real results.”
At the local level, it’s viewed as a counterpunch to Parrish, who despite promising to stay neutral, has all but backed Singh. His canvassers have knocked doors and installed twinning signs for both candidates. Singh took a shot at Crombie over her nod to Hart in a Facebook post today: “She is endorsing a Liberal candidate so she can control council from Queen’s Park.”
“This is the new [Ontario Liberal Party] under former mayor Crombie, who used us as a stepping stone to run here,” he later posted.
Stay tuned for a deep dive of tomorrow’s vote — and what a new mayor will mean for the city’s strained relationship with Queen’s Park, in your inbox later this week.