The race in University—Rosedale is shaping up to be a nail-biter.
That’s according to a new poll by Mainstreet Research, which found the Liberals ahead of the NDP, albeit by a slim margin.
Coming out on top in this GTA seat is essential to both parties’ electoral math. For the Grits, it was once considered to be a stronghold — so much so that Steven Del Duca made it his opening stop during the last election. For the NDP, the riding — one they won by double digits — could determine whether Marit Stiles can maintain her grip on second place.
Jessica Bell is back on the NDP ticket, with Pam Jeffery as the Liberal candidate. Sydney Pothakos is carrying the Progressive Conservative banner, with Ignacio Mongrell as the Green candidate.
This survey, conducted last Wednesday and Thursday via IVR, polled 399 adults, 18 years of age or older, in the riding. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.9 per cent.
By the numbers:
— Among all voters: Bell has a 5 point-lead, with 33 per cent over Jeffrey’s 28 per cent. Pothakos is at 18 per cent, while 17 per cent of respondents say they're undecided.
— Among the decided and leaning: It’s a whole new equation. Jeffrey is up with a slim one-point lead over Bell, 34 per cent to 33 per cent. Pothakos is at 18 per cent, with 3 per cent saying they’d vote for someone else and 2 per cent behind Mongrell.
In 2018, Bell won with just under 50 per cent of the popular vote, but that dropped to under 40 per cent in 2022. That year, Green candidate Dianne Saxe — now a city councillor — was a factor, eating at from the progressive vote.
This cycle isn’t like the last. “Without a strong Green candidate running again, this race appears to be deadlocked” between Bell and Jeffrey, says Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research. “[It’s] a tie race with the Liberal candidate catching the incumbent among leaning voters.”
Demographics — and the undecided electorate — could break that tie. Maggi noted that the Liberal candidate is overperforming with female and senior voters, a bloc that could give her an edge if turnout skews older on election day.
Even among those leaning toward a candidate, 10 per cent remain on the fence, leaving room for a late swing that could tilt the outcome.
According to Maggi, the riding is “notoriously challenging to sample.” Striking a balance between the University and Rosedale can be tricky, cautioning that the dense mix of buildings and condos with “harder-to-reach” voters could skew results beyond the typical margin of error in local polling.
We’re teaming up with Mainstreet Research to zero in on where this election could be won or lost. Each week, we’ll share fresh polling from two must-watch ridings.
{{LINE}}
A message from Mainstreet Research:
We believe strongly in the power of data to illuminate most any issue, but data is not enough. At Mainstreet Research, we have the experience and know how to harness the potential of data to deliver the insights that are critical to any business, political or public policy decision. Learn more.
{{LINE}}
— Here’s where the leaders will be this week:
Save the date: Family Day is Debate Day. The leaders’ debate will go down on Monday night from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m in Toronto, with Ford, Crombie, Stiles and Schreiner participating.
CBC’s David Common will moderate the free-for-all, joined by Global’s Colin D’Mello and CTV’s Siobhan Morris.
— Over the weekend, new pitches to voters:
Liberal candidate Stephanie Smyth — whose bid in Toronto St. Paul’s we scooped — promised to appoint a “special investigator” to look into “Doug Ford’s giveaway, handouts and sweetheart deals.”
Marit Stiles pledged a monthly grocery rebate “based on how much the cost of essential groceries like milk, bread and vegetables have increased under Ford.”
— Nomination tracker: The Liberals — like the Progressive Conservatives and NDP — say they have nominated a full slate of candidates. “Our candidates embody the very best of this province,” Crombie said in a statement.
Here’s the caveat: Some are still a mystery. The party says they’re waiting on the bios and headshots. We’re told that some are still chasing down nominators and should be announced shortly.
Some Dippers pulled no punches:
So did some Liberals, privately. “I’m sure they’re not [lying] but just botched this like everything else,” one texted. “The appearance of something fishy is just as bad.”
NDP: 121. Liberals: 106. That’s the latest from Elections Ontario’s live tally, with less than 50 hours to go until deadline.
Check out who’s already been nominated using our interactive tracker.
— Over in Mississauga, Progressive Conservative candidate Silvia Gualtieri opened her campaign HQ on Sunday. Brampton mayor Patrick Brown — her son-in-law — made an impromptu cameo.
Members of the provincial and federal board, local organizations, the local Ratepayers Association and her family were also on hand.
Bonnie Crombie joined Alvin Tedjo — who placed second to Carolyn Parrish in the mayoral race — for a canvass in the riding on Saturday. She also went door-to-door with Liz Mendes in Lakeshore.
We first reported about Tedjo’s canvass.
Also on the trail, Danny Singh, who lost to Natalie Hart in a local council race, stumped for Nina Tangri in Streetsville. Crombie throwing her weight behind Hart didn’t sit well with Singh, who promised he’d “ensure she is defeated in the next election.”
— In Davenport, Marit Stiles was back for a canvass with education workers. OSSTF’s Karen Littlewood and OECTA’s René Jansen in de Wal were there. “Education votes,” Littlewood said.
— Wannabe Liberal leaders also hit the campaign trail this weekend.
Karina Gould joined Tyler Watt for his campaign launch in Nepean. The race could come down to the wire, with Watt trailing Progressive Conservative candidate Alex Lewis by 5 points.
Ruby Dhalla joined Ranjit Singh Bagga in the Flower City.
As this newsletter reported on Friday, he was running to be Pierre Poilievre’s candidate in Mississauga—Malton, just before he was picked to run up against Graham McGregor.
— Brown v. Crombie, continued: Brampton’s mayor has more to say about the Liberal leader.
“I found her derogatory, combative and nasty towards Brampton,” he told Nokha Dakroub and Cody Vatcher on The Radical Centre. “It had me very worried what would ever happen if she was premier.” Watch here.
“Antagonistic, confrontational and draconian,” he told us before the election call.
— New Promoli Buttons™ are here:
— Bonnie’s birthday bash: To celebrate her Big 6-5, friends of the Liberal leader hosted her birthday at the Crooked Cue in Lakeshore on Saturday night. “Do not post on social media,” the invite read.
The Liberal leader sported a Birthday Girl pin on the bus last week.
— Elections Ontario is still hiring, with pay between $20.00 to $29.50 an hour.
This reporter joined Greg Brady on AM640’s Think Tank panel with Laryssa Waler and Ben Mulroney to chat about Gualtieri v. Crombie, healthcare and Toronto’s transit system.
Use the promo code TORONTOTODAY to save 20% on our campaign trail coverage.
— Ontario’s Big City Mayors are launching an election advocacy blitz this week, zeroing in on homelessness, mental health, public safety and housing. More here.
— A wrench on the campaign trail: “Another winter storm is expected to hit Toronto and surrounding areas” tomorrow, with at least 15 cm of snow.
{{SUB_BUTTON}}
— Another new poll by Abacus found the Tories up with a snug lead at 37 per cent support. They “continue to benefit from an engaged and motivated base, giving them an advantage if voter turnout is low.”
— Nanos Research says 44 per cent of those decided picked Ford, with 31 per cent for Crombie, 19 per cent for Stiles and four per cent for Schreiner.
— It’s a trip his rivals aren’t too happy about.
— One strategist doesn’t think the idea of a “Fortress Am-Can” is going to resonate with Donald Trump.
— John Michael McGrath says no clever persuasion can move Trump off his tarrif obsession.
— But Brian Liley says that Ford’s message seems to be resonating with voters.
— Chris Selley argues that Ford is doing everything he should be doing — except he’s doing it during a campaign.
— In one riding, a Liberal MP’s aide is helping run the provincial campaign of a Progressive Conservative candidate, the London Free Press reports.
— Here’s what campaign stops tell us about the leaders’ hopes.
{{LINE}}
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Were you at Bonnie Crombie's birthday bash? Have thoughts on Marit Stiles’ leadership? Campaign intel or war room gossip? On or off the record, drop a line and you’ll stay anonymous. We’re back in your inbox later this week. Not paying? Upgrade to get it in your inbox.
Have a brand or message? Looking to grab the attention of the province’s top and most powerful political players during this election? Ad space is available — reach out for our rate card.
The race in University—Rosedale is shaping up to be a nail-biter.
That’s according to a new poll by Mainstreet Research, which found the Liberals ahead of the NDP, albeit by a slim margin.
Coming out on top in this GTA seat is essential to both parties’ electoral math. For the Grits, it was once considered to be a stronghold — so much so that Steven Del Duca made it his opening stop during the last election. For the NDP, the riding — one they won by double digits — could determine whether Marit Stiles can maintain her grip on second place.
Jessica Bell is back on the NDP ticket, with Pam Jeffery as the Liberal candidate. Sydney Pothakos is carrying the Progressive Conservative banner, with Ignacio Mongrell as the Green candidate.
This survey, conducted last Wednesday and Thursday via IVR, polled 399 adults, 18 years of age or older, in the riding. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.9 per cent.
By the numbers:
— Among all voters: Bell has a 5 point-lead, with 33 per cent over Jeffrey’s 28 per cent. Pothakos is at 18 per cent, while 17 per cent of respondents say they're undecided.
— Among the decided and leaning: It’s a whole new equation. Jeffrey is up with a slim one-point lead over Bell, 34 per cent to 33 per cent. Pothakos is at 18 per cent, with 3 per cent saying they’d vote for someone else and 2 per cent behind Mongrell.
In 2018, Bell won with just under 50 per cent of the popular vote, but that dropped to under 40 per cent in 2022. That year, Green candidate Dianne Saxe — now a city councillor — was a factor, eating at from the progressive vote.
This cycle isn’t like the last. “Without a strong Green candidate running again, this race appears to be deadlocked” between Bell and Jeffrey, says Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research. “[It’s] a tie race with the Liberal candidate catching the incumbent among leaning voters.”
Demographics — and the undecided electorate — could break that tie. Maggi noted that the Liberal candidate is overperforming with female and senior voters, a bloc that could give her an edge if turnout skews older on election day.
Even among those leaning toward a candidate, 10 per cent remain on the fence, leaving room for a late swing that could tilt the outcome.
According to Maggi, the riding is “notoriously challenging to sample.” Striking a balance between the University and Rosedale can be tricky, cautioning that the dense mix of buildings and condos with “harder-to-reach” voters could skew results beyond the typical margin of error in local polling.
We’re teaming up with Mainstreet Research to zero in on where this election could be won or lost. Each week, we’ll share fresh polling from two must-watch ridings.
{{LINE}}
A message from Mainstreet Research:
We believe strongly in the power of data to illuminate most any issue, but data is not enough. At Mainstreet Research, we have the experience and know how to harness the potential of data to deliver the insights that are critical to any business, political or public policy decision. Learn more.
{{LINE}}
— Here’s where the leaders will be this week:
Save the date: Family Day is Debate Day. The leaders’ debate will go down on Monday night from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m in Toronto, with Ford, Crombie, Stiles and Schreiner participating.
CBC’s David Common will moderate the free-for-all, joined by Global’s Colin D’Mello and CTV’s Siobhan Morris.
— Over the weekend, new pitches to voters:
Liberal candidate Stephanie Smyth — whose bid in Toronto St. Paul’s we scooped — promised to appoint a “special investigator” to look into “Doug Ford’s giveaway, handouts and sweetheart deals.”
Marit Stiles pledged a monthly grocery rebate “based on how much the cost of essential groceries like milk, bread and vegetables have increased under Ford.”
— Nomination tracker: The Liberals — like the Progressive Conservatives and NDP — say they have nominated a full slate of candidates. “Our candidates embody the very best of this province,” Crombie said in a statement.
Here’s the caveat: Some are still a mystery. The party says they’re waiting on the bios and headshots. We’re told that some are still chasing down nominators and should be announced shortly.
Some Dippers pulled no punches:
So did some Liberals, privately. “I’m sure they’re not [lying] but just botched this like everything else,” one texted. “The appearance of something fishy is just as bad.”
NDP: 121. Liberals: 106. That’s the latest from Elections Ontario’s live tally, with less than 50 hours to go until deadline.
Check out who’s already been nominated using our interactive tracker.
— Over in Mississauga, Progressive Conservative candidate Silvia Gualtieri opened her campaign HQ on Sunday. Brampton mayor Patrick Brown — her son-in-law — made an impromptu cameo.
Members of the provincial and federal board, local organizations, the local Ratepayers Association and her family were also on hand.
Bonnie Crombie joined Alvin Tedjo — who placed second to Carolyn Parrish in the mayoral race — for a canvass in the riding on Saturday. She also went door-to-door with Liz Mendes in Lakeshore.
We first reported about Tedjo’s canvass.
Also on the trail, Danny Singh, who lost to Natalie Hart in a local council race, stumped for Nina Tangri in Streetsville. Crombie throwing her weight behind Hart didn’t sit well with Singh, who promised he’d “ensure she is defeated in the next election.”
— In Davenport, Marit Stiles was back for a canvass with education workers. OSSTF’s Karen Littlewood and OECTA’s René Jansen in de Wal were there. “Education votes,” Littlewood said.
— Wannabe Liberal leaders also hit the campaign trail this weekend.
Karina Gould joined Tyler Watt for his campaign launch in Nepean. The race could come down to the wire, with Watt trailing Progressive Conservative candidate Alex Lewis by 5 points.
Ruby Dhalla joined Ranjit Singh Bagga in the Flower City.
As this newsletter reported on Friday, he was running to be Pierre Poilievre’s candidate in Mississauga—Malton, just before he was picked to run up against Graham McGregor.
— Brown v. Crombie, continued: Brampton’s mayor has more to say about the Liberal leader.
“I found her derogatory, combative and nasty towards Brampton,” he told Nokha Dakroub and Cody Vatcher on The Radical Centre. “It had me very worried what would ever happen if she was premier.” Watch here.
“Antagonistic, confrontational and draconian,” he told us before the election call.
— New Promoli Buttons™ are here:
— Bonnie’s birthday bash: To celebrate her Big 6-5, friends of the Liberal leader hosted her birthday at the Crooked Cue in Lakeshore on Saturday night. “Do not post on social media,” the invite read.
The Liberal leader sported a Birthday Girl pin on the bus last week.
— Elections Ontario is still hiring, with pay between $20.00 to $29.50 an hour.
This reporter joined Greg Brady on AM640’s Think Tank panel with Laryssa Waler and Ben Mulroney to chat about Gualtieri v. Crombie, healthcare and Toronto’s transit system.
Use the promo code TORONTOTODAY to save 20% on our campaign trail coverage.
— Ontario’s Big City Mayors are launching an election advocacy blitz this week, zeroing in on homelessness, mental health, public safety and housing. More here.
— A wrench on the campaign trail: “Another winter storm is expected to hit Toronto and surrounding areas” tomorrow, with at least 15 cm of snow.
{{SUB_BUTTON}}
— Another new poll by Abacus found the Tories up with a snug lead at 37 per cent support. They “continue to benefit from an engaged and motivated base, giving them an advantage if voter turnout is low.”
— Nanos Research says 44 per cent of those decided picked Ford, with 31 per cent for Crombie, 19 per cent for Stiles and four per cent for Schreiner.
— It’s a trip his rivals aren’t too happy about.
— One strategist doesn’t think the idea of a “Fortress Am-Can” is going to resonate with Donald Trump.
— John Michael McGrath says no clever persuasion can move Trump off his tarrif obsession.
— But Brian Liley says that Ford’s message seems to be resonating with voters.
— Chris Selley argues that Ford is doing everything he should be doing — except he’s doing it during a campaign.
— In one riding, a Liberal MP’s aide is helping run the provincial campaign of a Progressive Conservative candidate, the London Free Press reports.
— Here’s what campaign stops tell us about the leaders’ hopes.
{{LINE}}
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Were you at Bonnie Crombie's birthday bash? Have thoughts on Marit Stiles’ leadership? Campaign intel or war room gossip? On or off the record, drop a line and you’ll stay anonymous. We’re back in your inbox later this week. Not paying? Upgrade to get it in your inbox.
Have a brand or message? Looking to grab the attention of the province’s top and most powerful political players during this election? Ad space is available — reach out for our rate card.
The race in University—Rosedale is shaping up to be a nail-biter.
That’s according to a new poll by Mainstreet Research, which found the Liberals ahead of the NDP, albeit by a slim margin.
Coming out on top in this GTA seat is essential to both parties’ electoral math. For the Grits, it was once considered to be a stronghold — so much so that Steven Del Duca made it his opening stop during the last election. For the NDP, the riding — one they won by double digits — could determine whether Marit Stiles can maintain her grip on second place.
Jessica Bell is back on the NDP ticket, with Pam Jeffery as the Liberal candidate. Sydney Pothakos is carrying the Progressive Conservative banner, with Ignacio Mongrell as the Green candidate.
This survey, conducted last Wednesday and Thursday via IVR, polled 399 adults, 18 years of age or older, in the riding. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.9 per cent.
By the numbers:
— Among all voters: Bell has a 5 point-lead, with 33 per cent over Jeffrey’s 28 per cent. Pothakos is at 18 per cent, while 17 per cent of respondents say they're undecided.
— Among the decided and leaning: It’s a whole new equation. Jeffrey is up with a slim one-point lead over Bell, 34 per cent to 33 per cent. Pothakos is at 18 per cent, with 3 per cent saying they’d vote for someone else and 2 per cent behind Mongrell.
In 2018, Bell won with just under 50 per cent of the popular vote, but that dropped to under 40 per cent in 2022. That year, Green candidate Dianne Saxe — now a city councillor — was a factor, eating at from the progressive vote.
This cycle isn’t like the last. “Without a strong Green candidate running again, this race appears to be deadlocked” between Bell and Jeffrey, says Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research. “[It’s] a tie race with the Liberal candidate catching the incumbent among leaning voters.”
Demographics — and the undecided electorate — could break that tie. Maggi noted that the Liberal candidate is overperforming with female and senior voters, a bloc that could give her an edge if turnout skews older on election day.
Even among those leaning toward a candidate, 10 per cent remain on the fence, leaving room for a late swing that could tilt the outcome.
According to Maggi, the riding is “notoriously challenging to sample.” Striking a balance between the University and Rosedale can be tricky, cautioning that the dense mix of buildings and condos with “harder-to-reach” voters could skew results beyond the typical margin of error in local polling.
We’re teaming up with Mainstreet Research to zero in on where this election could be won or lost. Each week, we’ll share fresh polling from two must-watch ridings.
{{LINE}}
A message from Mainstreet Research:
We believe strongly in the power of data to illuminate most any issue, but data is not enough. At Mainstreet Research, we have the experience and know how to harness the potential of data to deliver the insights that are critical to any business, political or public policy decision. Learn more.
{{LINE}}
— Here’s where the leaders will be this week:
Save the date: Family Day is Debate Day. The leaders’ debate will go down on Monday night from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m in Toronto, with Ford, Crombie, Stiles and Schreiner participating.
CBC’s David Common will moderate the free-for-all, joined by Global’s Colin D’Mello and CTV’s Siobhan Morris.
— Over the weekend, new pitches to voters:
Liberal candidate Stephanie Smyth — whose bid in Toronto St. Paul’s we scooped — promised to appoint a “special investigator” to look into “Doug Ford’s giveaway, handouts and sweetheart deals.”
Marit Stiles pledged a monthly grocery rebate “based on how much the cost of essential groceries like milk, bread and vegetables have increased under Ford.”
— Nomination tracker: The Liberals — like the Progressive Conservatives and NDP — say they have nominated a full slate of candidates. “Our candidates embody the very best of this province,” Crombie said in a statement.
Here’s the caveat: Some are still a mystery. The party says they’re waiting on the bios and headshots. We’re told that some are still chasing down nominators and should be announced shortly.
Some Dippers pulled no punches:
So did some Liberals, privately. “I’m sure they’re not [lying] but just botched this like everything else,” one texted. “The appearance of something fishy is just as bad.”
NDP: 121. Liberals: 106. That’s the latest from Elections Ontario’s live tally, with less than 50 hours to go until deadline.
Check out who’s already been nominated using our interactive tracker.
— Over in Mississauga, Progressive Conservative candidate Silvia Gualtieri opened her campaign HQ on Sunday. Brampton mayor Patrick Brown — her son-in-law — made an impromptu cameo.
Members of the provincial and federal board, local organizations, the local Ratepayers Association and her family were also on hand.
Bonnie Crombie joined Alvin Tedjo — who placed second to Carolyn Parrish in the mayoral race — for a canvass in the riding on Saturday. She also went door-to-door with Liz Mendes in Lakeshore.
We first reported about Tedjo’s canvass.
Also on the trail, Danny Singh, who lost to Natalie Hart in a local council race, stumped for Nina Tangri in Streetsville. Crombie throwing her weight behind Hart didn’t sit well with Singh, who promised he’d “ensure she is defeated in the next election.”
— In Davenport, Marit Stiles was back for a canvass with education workers. OSSTF’s Karen Littlewood and OECTA’s René Jansen in de Wal were there. “Education votes,” Littlewood said.
— Wannabe Liberal leaders also hit the campaign trail this weekend.
Karina Gould joined Tyler Watt for his campaign launch in Nepean. The race could come down to the wire, with Watt trailing Progressive Conservative candidate Alex Lewis by 5 points.
Ruby Dhalla joined Ranjit Singh Bagga in the Flower City.
As this newsletter reported on Friday, he was running to be Pierre Poilievre’s candidate in Mississauga—Malton, just before he was picked to run up against Graham McGregor.
— Brown v. Crombie, continued: Brampton’s mayor has more to say about the Liberal leader.
“I found her derogatory, combative and nasty towards Brampton,” he told Nokha Dakroub and Cody Vatcher on The Radical Centre. “It had me very worried what would ever happen if she was premier.” Watch here.
“Antagonistic, confrontational and draconian,” he told us before the election call.
— New Promoli Buttons™ are here:
— Bonnie’s birthday bash: To celebrate her Big 6-5, friends of the Liberal leader hosted her birthday at the Crooked Cue in Lakeshore on Saturday night. “Do not post on social media,” the invite read.
The Liberal leader sported a Birthday Girl pin on the bus last week.
— Elections Ontario is still hiring, with pay between $20.00 to $29.50 an hour.
This reporter joined Greg Brady on AM640’s Think Tank panel with Laryssa Waler and Ben Mulroney to chat about Gualtieri v. Crombie, healthcare and Toronto’s transit system.
Use the promo code TORONTOTODAY to save 20% on our campaign trail coverage.
— Ontario’s Big City Mayors are launching an election advocacy blitz this week, zeroing in on homelessness, mental health, public safety and housing. More here.
— A wrench on the campaign trail: “Another winter storm is expected to hit Toronto and surrounding areas” tomorrow, with at least 15 cm of snow.
{{SUB_BUTTON}}
— Another new poll by Abacus found the Tories up with a snug lead at 37 per cent support. They “continue to benefit from an engaged and motivated base, giving them an advantage if voter turnout is low.”
— Nanos Research says 44 per cent of those decided picked Ford, with 31 per cent for Crombie, 19 per cent for Stiles and four per cent for Schreiner.
— It’s a trip his rivals aren’t too happy about.
— One strategist doesn’t think the idea of a “Fortress Am-Can” is going to resonate with Donald Trump.
— John Michael McGrath says no clever persuasion can move Trump off his tarrif obsession.
— But Brian Liley says that Ford’s message seems to be resonating with voters.
— Chris Selley argues that Ford is doing everything he should be doing — except he’s doing it during a campaign.
— In one riding, a Liberal MP’s aide is helping run the provincial campaign of a Progressive Conservative candidate, the London Free Press reports.
— Here’s what campaign stops tell us about the leaders’ hopes.
{{LINE}}
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Were you at Bonnie Crombie's birthday bash? Have thoughts on Marit Stiles’ leadership? Campaign intel or war room gossip? On or off the record, drop a line and you’ll stay anonymous. We’re back in your inbox later this week. Not paying? Upgrade to get it in your inbox.
Have a brand or message? Looking to grab the attention of the province’s top and most powerful political players during this election? Ad space is available — reach out for our rate card.
The race in University—Rosedale is shaping up to be a nail-biter.
That’s according to a new poll by Mainstreet Research, which found the Liberals ahead of the NDP, albeit by a slim margin.
Coming out on top in this GTA seat is essential to both parties’ electoral math. For the Grits, it was once considered to be a stronghold — so much so that Steven Del Duca made it his opening stop during the last election. For the NDP, the riding — one they won by double digits — could determine whether Marit Stiles can maintain her grip on second place.
Jessica Bell is back on the NDP ticket, with Pam Jeffery as the Liberal candidate. Sydney Pothakos is carrying the Progressive Conservative banner, with Ignacio Mongrell as the Green candidate.
This survey, conducted last Wednesday and Thursday via IVR, polled 399 adults, 18 years of age or older, in the riding. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.9 per cent.
By the numbers:
— Among all voters: Bell has a 5 point-lead, with 33 per cent over Jeffrey’s 28 per cent. Pothakos is at 18 per cent, while 17 per cent of respondents say they're undecided.
— Among the decided and leaning: It’s a whole new equation. Jeffrey is up with a slim one-point lead over Bell, 34 per cent to 33 per cent. Pothakos is at 18 per cent, with 3 per cent saying they’d vote for someone else and 2 per cent behind Mongrell.
In 2018, Bell won with just under 50 per cent of the popular vote, but that dropped to under 40 per cent in 2022. That year, Green candidate Dianne Saxe — now a city councillor — was a factor, eating at from the progressive vote.
This cycle isn’t like the last. “Without a strong Green candidate running again, this race appears to be deadlocked” between Bell and Jeffrey, says Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research. “[It’s] a tie race with the Liberal candidate catching the incumbent among leaning voters.”
Demographics — and the undecided electorate — could break that tie. Maggi noted that the Liberal candidate is overperforming with female and senior voters, a bloc that could give her an edge if turnout skews older on election day.
Even among those leaning toward a candidate, 10 per cent remain on the fence, leaving room for a late swing that could tilt the outcome.
According to Maggi, the riding is “notoriously challenging to sample.” Striking a balance between the University and Rosedale can be tricky, cautioning that the dense mix of buildings and condos with “harder-to-reach” voters could skew results beyond the typical margin of error in local polling.
We’re teaming up with Mainstreet Research to zero in on where this election could be won or lost. Each week, we’ll share fresh polling from two must-watch ridings.
{{LINE}}
A message from Mainstreet Research:
We believe strongly in the power of data to illuminate most any issue, but data is not enough. At Mainstreet Research, we have the experience and know how to harness the potential of data to deliver the insights that are critical to any business, political or public policy decision. Learn more.
{{LINE}}
— Here’s where the leaders will be this week:
Save the date: Family Day is Debate Day. The leaders’ debate will go down on Monday night from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m in Toronto, with Ford, Crombie, Stiles and Schreiner participating.
CBC’s David Common will moderate the free-for-all, joined by Global’s Colin D’Mello and CTV’s Siobhan Morris.
— Over the weekend, new pitches to voters:
Liberal candidate Stephanie Smyth — whose bid in Toronto St. Paul’s we scooped — promised to appoint a “special investigator” to look into “Doug Ford’s giveaway, handouts and sweetheart deals.”
Marit Stiles pledged a monthly grocery rebate “based on how much the cost of essential groceries like milk, bread and vegetables have increased under Ford.”
— Nomination tracker: The Liberals — like the Progressive Conservatives and NDP — say they have nominated a full slate of candidates. “Our candidates embody the very best of this province,” Crombie said in a statement.
Here’s the caveat: Some are still a mystery. The party says they’re waiting on the bios and headshots. We’re told that some are still chasing down nominators and should be announced shortly.
Some Dippers pulled no punches:
So did some Liberals, privately. “I’m sure they’re not [lying] but just botched this like everything else,” one texted. “The appearance of something fishy is just as bad.”
NDP: 121. Liberals: 106. That’s the latest from Elections Ontario’s live tally, with less than 50 hours to go until deadline.
Check out who’s already been nominated using our interactive tracker.
— Over in Mississauga, Progressive Conservative candidate Silvia Gualtieri opened her campaign HQ on Sunday. Brampton mayor Patrick Brown — her son-in-law — made an impromptu cameo.
Members of the provincial and federal board, local organizations, the local Ratepayers Association and her family were also on hand.
Bonnie Crombie joined Alvin Tedjo — who placed second to Carolyn Parrish in the mayoral race — for a canvass in the riding on Saturday. She also went door-to-door with Liz Mendes in Lakeshore.
We first reported about Tedjo’s canvass.
Also on the trail, Danny Singh, who lost to Natalie Hart in a local council race, stumped for Nina Tangri in Streetsville. Crombie throwing her weight behind Hart didn’t sit well with Singh, who promised he’d “ensure she is defeated in the next election.”
— In Davenport, Marit Stiles was back for a canvass with education workers. OSSTF’s Karen Littlewood and OECTA’s René Jansen in de Wal were there. “Education votes,” Littlewood said.
— Wannabe Liberal leaders also hit the campaign trail this weekend.
Karina Gould joined Tyler Watt for his campaign launch in Nepean. The race could come down to the wire, with Watt trailing Progressive Conservative candidate Alex Lewis by 5 points.
Ruby Dhalla joined Ranjit Singh Bagga in the Flower City.
As this newsletter reported on Friday, he was running to be Pierre Poilievre’s candidate in Mississauga—Malton, just before he was picked to run up against Graham McGregor.
— Brown v. Crombie, continued: Brampton’s mayor has more to say about the Liberal leader.
“I found her derogatory, combative and nasty towards Brampton,” he told Nokha Dakroub and Cody Vatcher on The Radical Centre. “It had me very worried what would ever happen if she was premier.” Watch here.
“Antagonistic, confrontational and draconian,” he told us before the election call.
— New Promoli Buttons™ are here:
— Bonnie’s birthday bash: To celebrate her Big 6-5, friends of the Liberal leader hosted her birthday at the Crooked Cue in Lakeshore on Saturday night. “Do not post on social media,” the invite read.
The Liberal leader sported a Birthday Girl pin on the bus last week.
— Elections Ontario is still hiring, with pay between $20.00 to $29.50 an hour.
This reporter joined Greg Brady on AM640’s Think Tank panel with Laryssa Waler and Ben Mulroney to chat about Gualtieri v. Crombie, healthcare and Toronto’s transit system.
Use the promo code TORONTOTODAY to save 20% on our campaign trail coverage.
— Ontario’s Big City Mayors are launching an election advocacy blitz this week, zeroing in on homelessness, mental health, public safety and housing. More here.
— A wrench on the campaign trail: “Another winter storm is expected to hit Toronto and surrounding areas” tomorrow, with at least 15 cm of snow.
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— Another new poll by Abacus found the Tories up with a snug lead at 37 per cent support. They “continue to benefit from an engaged and motivated base, giving them an advantage if voter turnout is low.”
— Nanos Research says 44 per cent of those decided picked Ford, with 31 per cent for Crombie, 19 per cent for Stiles and four per cent for Schreiner.
— It’s a trip his rivals aren’t too happy about.
— One strategist doesn’t think the idea of a “Fortress Am-Can” is going to resonate with Donald Trump.
— John Michael McGrath says no clever persuasion can move Trump off his tarrif obsession.
— But Brian Liley says that Ford’s message seems to be resonating with voters.
— Chris Selley argues that Ford is doing everything he should be doing — except he’s doing it during a campaign.
— In one riding, a Liberal MP’s aide is helping run the provincial campaign of a Progressive Conservative candidate, the London Free Press reports.
— Here’s what campaign stops tell us about the leaders’ hopes.
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