PRESENTED BY POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE
THE LEDE
With the threat of an early election call hanging over, the political parties are splashing ad dollars on television, radio and all over social media to lock in their messaging and hype up their leaders.
Here's how the promo war is shaping up:
— The NDP has launched a fresh campaign — “It’s Marit” — to pump up captain Marit Stiles, who, according to a new poll, has been an unknown commodity. While signs are up in downtown Toronto, a series of six ads are running on Facebook and Instagram.
“Every day, all across this province, I’m inspired by people — and you deserve a government that inspires you, too,” Stiles said in one video. “You deserve a good life and a premier who can make that happen,” she added in another.
While the campaign only launched on Monday, $45 has been spent on the ads, which are running from Stiles’ personal page, according to Meta’s disclosure.
The strategy is simple: “Public research — as well as our own polling — shows that Marit is more popular than her opponents among those who know her, but as a new leader who hasn’t led the party through the spotlight of a general election yet, a lot of people don’t know her or don’t know her well enough to have an opinion,” said Dave Clark, Stiles’ provincial campaign director.
“The goal for this campaign is to continue to introduce more Ontarians to Marit, while putting the experiences of regular Ontarians and the challenges that they are facing front and centre. The ads feature anecdotes inspired by what Marit has been hearing as she travels across the province.“
Clark says the ads will appear “anywhere that we can reach people where they’re at, with a focus on smart targeting and maximum value for money.” That’ll include video streaming services, social media, podcasts, digital screens in elevators and convenience stores and street posters.
Meanwhile, in September, the NDP coughed up $7,377 on targeted ads for Amanda Robertson’s campaign in Belleville. The ads focused on worsening hospital wait times, painted Ford as “only helping those who keep him in power” and took aim at Liberal candidate Sean Kelly — pictured with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — as one of “the same politicians who keep failing us.”
Many of the viewers were aged 18 to 24; however, the majority belonged to an older demographic.
— A new, longer ad telling Bonnie Crombie’s story is expected to go live in late October.
“I studied and I worked hard to build a better life,” the Liberal leader, seated in her home, said of her upbringing. “That was the formula for success back then — and that formula just doesn't work for our young people today.”
For Crombie, it’s about getting ahead of the Tories’ attempt to paint her with a shade of elitism — a move, one strategist said, should be hit back at rapidly.
“A lot of people would be very surprised to hear her personal story. The ad is a great attempt at showing what Bonnie is about and what her personal story is,” said Taylor Deasley, who led Crombie’s press during her leadership bid. “It was excellent and that's what we need to be doing more of. Bonnie is not the person that she's being painted to be — she’s the opposite of that and that's one of her strengths.”
On social media, September was about school, school, school for Crombie’s team, with $6,132 spent on a series of ads on education. “Let’s send Doug Ford back to school,” one ad said, blaming him for pushing through an “anti-education policy.” While a majority of these ads are still active, they primarily reached the 65+ demographic, of which 33 percent are women.
Down but up: While they placed third in the spending race, the red team pushed out the most individual ads last month.
— While no new video was released, the Tories pulled ahead of their political rivals in September’s ad spree, with six videos targeting Crombie and one to highlight Doug Ford, who, despite leading in the polls, was found to be “strongly unfavourable.”
“It’s the people. That’s what gets me up every single morning. I always ask my team what we are doing to make life better and easier for folks out there,” Ford said. “You can’t always get it right — and let me tell you, when I don’t, I hear from the people.”
From Ford’s personal page, $4,659 was spent to run this ad on Facebook and Instagram, reaching women primarily in the 55 to 64 and 65+ demographic. Another $10,541 was spent to air six videos targeting Crombie, painting her as “expensive.”
— From health care to Ontario Place, “barbaric” dog hunting to vanishing marshlands, the Green Party spent the lowest of the four parties on ads, forking out $2,850. The ads largely reached those within the 65+ age range.
A message from Political Intelligence:
AT THE PALACE
— The House is adjourned for the summer. It’ll resume on October 21.
— Buckle up. Another busy week ahead at committee, with more ministerial spending set to be parsed over.
Monday:
Social Policy will meet at 1 p.m. to hear from Raymond Cho about the Ministry for Seniors and Accessibility’s expenditure.
The committee will resume at 3 p.m. to grill Nolan Quinn on the Ministry of Colleges and Universities’ spending.
Over at Interior, a 2 p.m. hearing is set to consider the Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks’ expenditure.
Tuesday:
At 9 a.m., Finance and Economic Affairs will hold public hearings on David Piccini’s ”Bill 190, Working for Workers Five Act.”
An hour later, a public consultation on PC Laura Smith’s “Bill 121, Improving Dementia Care in Ontario Act” will take place at Social Policy.
Meanwhile, at Interior, the committee is set to consider the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs’ spending.
Finance and Social Policy will resume their hearings at 3 p.m.
Wednesday:
Finance and Economic Affairs will convene at 9 a.m. to continue studying Piccini’s labour bill.
Heritage, Infrastructure and Cultural Policy will meet at 1 p.m. to grill Sport Minister Neil Lumsden and Tourism, Culture and Gaming Minister Stan Cho on their expenditure.
— If you’re on Team Ford, stay buckled. Here’s what’s coming up on the fundraiser circuit.
Premier Ford will join Neil Lumsden for a fundraiser at 6:30 p.m. tonight in Hamilton.
Infrastructure Minister Kinga Surma and Lorne Coe will headline an event in support of the Whitby riding association at 7 p.m.
On Monday, Housing Minister Paul Calandra will join John Jordan in Perth at 6 p.m to support the Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston riding association.
— Nomination watch: Two more faces are joining the Liberal ticket in Mississauga: Qasir Dar in Erin Mills and Jill Promoli in Streetsville.
Dar, the chair of the federal party’s Ontario wing, will go up against PC MPP Sheref Sabawy, who was nominated on Wednesday. Promoli, a school board trustee, took on PC MPP and junior minister Nina Tangri in the last round. Promoli and Dar will be nominated on October 15 and 18, respectively. Elizabeth Mendes has already been nominated in Lakeshore.
With candidates locked in for three Mississauga ridings, three more remain — including two where Crombie herself is considering a run. Still, she's expected to carry the Liberal banner in Mississauga Center, up against Natalia Kusendova-Bashta, whose recognition the Tories sought to boost — in a bid to curb Crombie's chances — by elevating her to cabinet earlier this summer.
Trevor Stewart (Glengarry—Prescott—Russell), Lee Fairclough (Etobicoke—Lakeshore) and Tyler Watt (Nepean) were nominated this week. Sam Nestico and Vince Gasparro are set to get the nod in York Centre and Eglinton—Lawrence, respectively, in two weeks.
In the Tories’ territory, several incumbents — Will Bouma (Brantford—Brant), Kinga Surma (Etobicoke Centre), Brian Riddell (Cambridge), Todd McCarthy (Durham) and Sabawy — have been acclaimed.
Meanwhile, for the NDP, John Vanthof (Timiskaming—Cochrane), Jamie West (Sudbury), Kristyn Wong-Tam (Toronto Centre) and Tom Rakocevic (Humber River—Black Creek) are back on the ticket.
Check out who’s already been nominated using our interactive tracker.
— Bhutila Karpoche will seek the federal nomination in Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High Park — the third NDP MPP to make a federal leap.
"Our country is at a crossroads and what we decide to do next will shape all our lives for a long time," Karpoche wrote. "It is not the time to simply accept things the way they are or cross our fingers that things will get better. It is a time to stand up and make the changes we want to see happen."
For Jagmeet Singh: It’s good news. Historically, it’s a district known to swing between Liberal and NDP— and with Karpoche, a familiar name, on the ticket, it’ll likely be easier for the party to capitalize on Prime Minister Trudeau's sinking popularity and snatch the seat.
In a bid to distance himself, Singh has already pulled the plug on a deal to prop up Trudeau.
For Marit Stiles: It’s more bad news. Karpoche, who once considered a bid for Toronto’s mayor, is the third to eye a federal run — Joel Harden and Monique Taylor are already seeking the nod. In the meantime, Stiles says work is “well underway” to nominate Karpoche’s replacement — with more to share soon.
More from Harden on an incoming “storm.”
Catch up on who Monique won’t miss (hint: Doug Ford).
— The Tories throwing shade at Crombie for musing about a new retail sales tax as a revenue stream for municipalities on TVO’s #onpoli pod.
— Village Media has acquired Queen’s Park Today. Alan Hale and Katherine DeClerq have joined The Trillium’s team.
Allison Smith, who launched the newsletter, is leaving the Press Gallery to become founding editor of Toronto Today. “I am ready for a new challenge — and can’t think of a better one than leading a team of reporters to cover the city I call home,” she wrote.
— At the annual International Plowing Match in Lindsay, the party leaders on the plough, no branded granola bars this year, jeers and journalistic fertilizer (Pinkerton’s version).
— Lisa MacLeod’s recipe book — “I’d Rather Be Baking Cookies” — is out now on Amazon.
— Know a seventh or eighth grader? Applications to become a Legislative Page are open until November 15. (For full disclosure: I was once a page. As I wrote in the local paper, “there was never a dull moment.”)
IN THE NEWS
— In another bid to appeal to motorists and suburbanites, Premier Doug Ford is eyeing a speed bump on highways — from 100 km/h to 110 km/h per hour "where it is safe to do so."
“Wouldn’t it be great if we could even get over 50 km/hour on the 401 in rush hour through the city?” Ford asked at a presser in East York. “We’re leaving no stone unturned to help fight gridlock on our roads, reduce travel times and allow people to spend less time commuting and more time at home with their families.”
Meanwhile, on a repurchase of the 407: “We’ll look at the 407 and see exactly which way we are going. We own about 22 kilometers on the far (eastern) end of the 407 and there’s other opportunities along the 407,” Ford said.
On Metrolinx's CEO: “I'm a fan of Phil [Verster].” That's despite an admission that the Eglinton Crosstown LRT won't be open this year, contrary to earlier expectations.
Read up on Ford’s other big pitch to drivers: the bike lane ban.
— A fresh survey by Campaign Research, the Tories’ go to polling shop, is, again, gauging public support for liberalized booze.
Though it’s uncertain that the poll was commissioned by the government, caucus shelled out close to a million dollars to the shop for internal polling last year, per public receipts.
Here’s some of what was asked, according to a copy of the survey:
“Generally speaking, which one of the following statements about government regulation of business comes closer to your own view.”
There should be less government regulation of business
There should be more government regulation of business
The amount of government regulation is about right
Don't know or unsure
“When thinking about distilled spirits, like rum, tequila and vodka only, do you support or oppose allowing spirits to be sold in grocery stores?”
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don't know or unsure
“When thinking about beer only, do you support or oppose allowing beer to be sold in convenience stores?”
“When thinking about wine only, do you support or oppose allowing wine to be sold in convenience stores?”
“When thinking about distilled spirits, like rum, tequila and vodka only, do you support or oppose allowing spirits to be sold in convenience stores?”
“When thinking about beer only, do you support or oppose allowing beer to be sold in big box stores (such as Costco or Walmart)?”
“When thinking about wine only, do you support or oppose allowing wine to be sold in big box stores (such as Costco or Walmart)?”
“Currently, ‘ready-to-drink’ beverages containing spirits are taxed at a higher rate than those containing beer or wine. Do you support or oppose having the same tax rate for all ‘ready-to-drink’ beverages, regardless of alcohol base?”
“If the government of Ontario were to allow the sale of distilled spirits, like rum, tequila and vodka in more retail outlets other than the LCBO, which of the following potential benefits would be most compelling to you?”
Increased government tax revenue
Lower prices due to increased competition
Job creation in the retail sector
Support for local distilleries
More convenient shopping options
All of these are compelling
None of these are compelling
Don't know or unsure
— Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown is calling on the province “to introduce involuntary treatment programs for individuals unable to seek care, due to the severity of the conditions.”
What he’s saying: “Our response has been piecemeal — incremental steps that, while well intentioned, barely scratch the surface,” Brown said. “What we need now is bold action, and one of the most powerful tools we can add to our arsenal is compassionate intervention treatment for individuals whose addictions have rendered them unable to seek help themselves.”
Meanwhile, Ontario's Big City Mayors are set to debate a motion “asking the provincial and federal governments to take on ‘intervenor status’ in future court cases that could restrict their communities' ability to regulate and prohibit encampments.”
— Ontario's population is "projected to increase by 41.7 per cent, or over 6.5 million, over the next 28 years," according to a new government report.
POLL WATCH
— A new poll by the Angus Reid Institute found that despite growing criticism and widespread disapproval of Premier Doug Ford, the Tories are pulling ahead over the other political parties.
40 per cent said they would vote for Ford's Progressive Conservatives if an election were held today, while 25 per cent chose Marit Stiles' NDP and 23 per cent picked Bonnie Crombie's Liberals.
The survey found that both Stiles and Crombie are struggling to gain traction. 30% say they're in the dark about Crombie, 39% say they don't know Stiles.
In good news for Ford, the Tories are leading the pack across every region except Toronto’s downtown core, where the party is in a three way race with the NDP and Liberals. It’s the one area where they see their strongest support, since neither have been able to crack the 30 per cent mark anywhere else.
The methodology: The poll was conducted between September 12 and 18 via an online survey among a “representative randomized sample of 858 adults.” “For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.”
WHAT WE'RE READING
— John Michael McGrath says another blow to the federal Liberals in just over a decade is a “possible extinction event.”
— When Matt Elliott heard about the tunnel vision, he thought: “Oh, what could have been.”
— Brian Lilley’s take on the Angus Reid poll: “Quite simply, none of the opposition parties are offering anything of interest to voters and, quite frankly, no one can tell them apart.”
— The minutiae of Ontario Place's lease with Therme is out.
— Ontario’s colleges are urging the federal government “to reconsider the decision to end automatic work permits for their international students.”
— As we near one year since Hamas’ attack on Israel and the subsequent war in the Gaza Strip, Jill Dunlop has a warning to school boards: do not “disseminate political biases into our classrooms.”
— Meanwhile, expect an increased police presence in Jewish neighborhoods and at mosques in Toronto.
— The Toronto District School Board has suspended “trips to protests, marches and rallies.”
— An internal Ministry of Education document showed that a growing number of school boards are dipping into — or outright depleting — their reserves.
— He didn't just donate his liver; PC MPP Will Bouma had to drop 40 pounds to make it happen. “If we can inspire even one individual to become a donor then we’ll be happy,” he said.
— NDP MPP Sol Mamakwa will table legislation, delivered in Oji-Cree, to recognize Truth and Reconciliation Day as a paid provincial holiday.
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