A fresh survey by the Tories’ pollster, revealed
Plus: will Lydia's Law languish, who Bonnie's backing for mayor, more mayoral drama — and a hot debate en route, carjackers, beware; tax slash, more red ink, Doug's next battle, kiosk call up and more
THE LEDE
SCOOP — The next provincial election is still two years out — but the Tories are already gearing up.
A fresh poll by Campaign Research — owned by Nick Kouvalis, the Tories’ pollster — is out and surveying public opinion on what the Ford government should prioritize “over the next two or three years,” while also probing the likability of Ford’s top rival.
We got a copy of the questionnaire — and while it’s unclear whether the poll was drafted on the Tories’ behalf, it gauges support for key policy priorities, spin and political foes.
To begin: Pollees are asked to “choose the area that is most important for the provincial government to focus on, and the area that is least important.” Among those avowals:
Address the increased cost of living
Raise the minimum wage in Ontario
Improve the healthcare system
Improve the education system
Bring more immigrants to Ontario
Raise taxes on anyone making more than $200,000 per year
Do not raise taxes
Lower taxes
Make housing more affordable by building many more homes (increase the supply)
Make homes more affordable with government money (subsidies and programs designed to lower the cost of renting)
Build more free housing and shelters for homeless people
Increase the carbon tax to better address climate change and global warming
Eliminate the carbon tax altogether
Build new highways
Hire more police officers to fight crime
Build and repair transit systems (improving public transit, build subways, GO transit)
The poll also pries into the government’s overall messaging — asking participants to evaluate the importance of “getting things done,” “looking out for the citizens, not the special interests” and “being honest and acting with integrity.”
Up second: The questionnaire zeroes in on eight priorities — what appear to be top of mind for the Tories, questioning "which of the following, if any, are extremely important for the provincial government to focus on." They include:
Improve the healthcare system
Create jobs (attract business investment and reduce red tape)
The government keeps its promises
Build more safe injection sites to help address drug use and drug addictions
Protect taxpayers’ money
Improve the education system
Do not raise taxes
Address the increased cost of living (inflation) by providing subsidies to people
None of these
Then: “When you think about the leaders of the political parties in Ontario, please rate their performance on the following items,” it asked, listing the same items used in the start question. Only four leaders are listed: Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre, federally; Ford and Bonnie Crombie, provincially.
The questionnaire also probes support for all the federal and provincial party captains. If an election were held tomorrow, participants were asked which party they’re “most likely” to vote for.
AT THE PALACE
— The House is out next week. Ditto committees.
— Boiling members, staffers, journalists; rejoice! AC was installed this week.
— Are politicians being overprepared? A quadruple of experts — a former member, previous staffer, orange strategist and editor in chief — dive in on The Agenda.
IN MEMORIAM
— Toronto city councillor Jaye Robinson has died after a battle with breast cancer — and key players around the bubble are remembering her legacy.
Housing Minister Calandra: “She was dedicated and worked tirelessly for those in Don Valley West.”
Multiculturalism Minister Ford Jr: “I was fortunate to work with Jaye during my time at city hall and saw firsthand her dedication to her constituents of Don Valley West.”
Liberal leader Crombie: “Throughout her fourteen years in office, Jaye Robinson tirelessly served her community.”
NEWS WATCH
— Carolyn Parrish has jolted the heated race to replace Bonnie Crombie as Mississauga’s mayor — bailing on all debates this cycle.
“We are respectfully declining all debates,” wrote the top dog’s campaign in a curt statement, less than three hours before a housing debate organized by More Homes Mississauga, a local community group. “Our campaign will continue to focus on a positive, productive approach, engaging directly with Mississauga residents. Carolyn is eager to continue meeting with individuals and groups in the short time that remains until election day. We regret any inconvenience.”
Behind the scenes, debate organizers scrambled — and rivals voiced fury.
“The way we heard about it was not directly from her,” said Kelly Singh, the group’s executive director. “I was doing a lot of press today about the event and was asked by two journalists, ‘oh, we’re hearing that Carolyn is pulling out of the debate.’ I then reached out to Carolyn personally, who told me she’s not coming.” Singh added.
"Carolyn Parrish's worst enemy is Carolyn Parrish,” said Dipika Damerla. “Carolyn has demonstrated today that she is not up to the job,” added Alvin Tedjo.
Tedjo’s campaign chair, Darryn McArthur — who regular readers would know is Liberal captain Bonnie Crombie’s de facto chief — also shot at Parrish. “As Bonnie Crombie’s campaign manager for her two successful campaigns for mayor, I know how important it is for candidates to face residents,” McArthur wrote. “This disdain for residents should disqualify her as a candidate for mayor.” Crombie’s relationship with Parrish is thorny, dating back to a heated council race.
Meanwhile, at the debate Parrish skipped, Damerla and Tedjo went at it over their provincial wish list, strong mayor powers and fourplexes.
One a provincial wish list: Damerla says she’d ask that the city be funded for the upfront cost of housing enabling infrastructure and that the criteria for rewarding municipalities is fixed, while the requirement for minimum parking be removed. Tedjo says he’d ask for more cash for critical infrastructure, including transit — calling the expansion on the Milton line “important” but needed along the whole corridor. He’d also request ”adult rules,” similar to the City of Toronto Act, and that MZOs be stopped.
On strong mayor muscles: Damerla said she doesn’t “expect to have to use them,” while Tedjo said he would “use all available tools to address the housing crisis.”
On fourplexes: Tedjo said Damerla’s abstention was the reason Crombie needed to use her strong mayor veto to move forward with quadplex housing. “Actually, Mayor Crombie didn’t have to use strong mayor powers,” she responded. “She needed a majority. What I voted against was not fourplexes. What I voted against was not being given the opportunity to do my homework.”
With the race heating up, so is the endorsement game.
Tedjo has scored backing from Guelph Mayor Cam Guthrie and former Toronto mayoral candidate Jen Keesmat. Damerla got Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti’s support. Meanwhile, Parrish’s launch featured a surprise endorsement from Associate Mental Health and Addictions Minister Michael Tibollo, local federal rep Iqra Khalid and superfan Nav Bhatia.
But the big endorsement isn’t coming: Crombie has promised to stay out of the race — and she’s still expected to do so.
But, behind closed doors: “the broad consensus on Team Bonnie is Team Anyone But Carolyn,” a source said. “However, this election is at a turning point and we’re starting to see some of Bonnie’s long-time friends and allies rally around Dipika, maybe because they’re starting to feel with her name recognition and success with polling and fundraising that she is the only one who can stop Carolyn,” they added. “Bonnie said she wouldn’t tell people how to vote. I think people are just coming to this conclusion on their own.”
One more thing: We’re partnering up with Mainstreet Research, Aurora Strategy Global and the University of Toronto Mississauga’s Student Union to host a key mayoral debate — “Mississauga’s Next 50,” centered around leadership, affordability, liveability and the future of the province’s third largest city.
Moderated by this reporter, expect a hot conversation, zeroing in on a range of key local issues at the intersection of provincial policy. That’s housing, transit and congestion, access to city services and the Mississauga’s critical relationship with the Ford government.
It all goes down on Monday, May 27 at 7pm on campus. A livestream will be available on YouTube for those who can’t make it.
And a quick addendum: Last week, we took you inside the mayoral campaign war rooms — and there’s an update on Team Tedjo. Liz Mendes is now a campaign chair, alongside McArthur. Star strategist Emma Wakelin (whose exit, as we previously reported, from Ted Hsu’s provincial Grit leadership campaign sparked questions) is now campaign director, with Erika McCallion as deputy.
We also told you about an NDP staffer in the pod business — but as it turns out, Ryan Gurcharn is no stranger. Gurcharn a radio host — I mean, a local radio star.
— More kiosks in a big box: the Ford government is on the search for more private retail stores to open ServiceOntario kiosks, per a posting to the province’s procurement portal.
The pitch: “Are you a retailer or business owner who is interested in partnering with the Government of Ontario to provide space for hosting ServiceOntario centres? This opportunity may be for you.”
But despite the spicy Staples sequel, the government says: “Our partnerships with retailers have no impact on publicly run ServiceOntario centres.”
— The Tories have sent Lydia’s Law to committee — a move, the Dippers says, will kill the bill.
The bill would compel the province to provide data on sex assault cases in court and require a progress report on putting the provincial auditor’s recommendations into action.
“This is a slap in the face,” NDP MPP Catherine Fife, who tabled the bill, said. “This bill will introduce measures to help the survivors of sexual assault seek justice. And the PCs don’t want to hear it? If they think they can silence the voices of survivors — they need to think again.”
Nuh, uh: The government says it won’t languish. “There's some very good parts of this particular bill, and that’s why we expedited it to committee,” house leader Paul Calandra said. “That committee will return with recommendations on how to reform the justice system.”
— It could be another four years before the province is in the black, according to a fresh report by the budgetary watchdog. Here’s the recap:
Slow roll: “Ontario’s budget deficit will temporarily improve to $0.9 billion in 2023-24, smaller than the government’s projection of a $3.0 billion deficit” before it widens to “$6.4 billion in 2024-25 and improve gradually over the outlook, reaching a surplus of $1.8 billion in 2028-29.”
More slow growth: The province is “expected to record slower job creation of 1.0 per cent in 2024” before the unemployment rate goes up “from 5.7 per cent in 2023 to 6.9 per cent in 2024 as the number of people entering the labour market grows faster than employment.” It will then “fall gradually over the remainder of the outlook and average 6.2 per cent during 2026 to 2028 as economic growth recovers.”
— Steal a car, lose your license: That’s according to a new plan Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria announced, introducing severe suspensions for those convicted of car burglary. It’s a ten year suspension for act one, 15 year suspension for a second steal, a lifetime suspension for a third.
— Slash the tax: Crombie’s crew is proposing the small business tax rate be halved, from 3.2% to 1.6% — while the eligibility threshold for income is upped to $600,000, enabling more businesses to qualify.
“Ontario Liberals are cutting taxes: we are the tax cutters,” she said.
They’re are also all in on a new tax credit to help parents cover the cost of extracurriculars.
— Premier Ford’s next big battle: He’s calling on the feds to “immediately stop approving” new opioid supply sites “and conduct a formal review of existing ones in the province.”
— Port Colborne will be the new home for Honda Canada's new lithium ion separator plant.
WHAT WE’RE READING
— A lawyer involved in creating Caledon’s controversial rezoning bylaws represented several landowners who would’ve stood to gain.
— Bonnie Crombie’s bid to slash the biz tax is an attempt to “out-populist Doug Ford,” argued John Michael McGrath.
— One infectious disease expert is back in the news — because measles are on a “problematic” rise.
— Ontario schools are about to get stricter on guest speakers, Brian Lilley says.
— Therme is lobbying for Ontario Place.
— Tougher penalties for drunk drivers are “too black and white” and won’t fix the problem, some argue.
— Global lost a battle to keep a doc on healthcare personnel data redacted. But the Canadian Press got access to it, unredacted.
— Matt Gurney doesn’t like being “spun or lied to” — and says the province’s legal case in an arbitration with the Ontario Medical Association is doing one or the other.
— Are Tim Hortons’ new lids “woke?” Woke and wacko, says one federal Conservative.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Patrick Sackville? A minister hoping to do a switcheroo — no, not you Minister Lecce. At the drawing board for a summer cabinet shakeup? Hit me up — ahmad@newsbeyond.ca — with tips, feedback, job moves and all the hot gossip. You’ll stay anon. We’re back in your inbox next Friday at lunchtime.